New England Revolution1Chicago Fire0

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 5–19On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 0–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 01:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Two points separate Chicago (third, 48) and New England (fourth, 46) in the East, and New England's 9-2-3 home record meets a Chicago side that has won its last three.

New England won 2-1 in Chicago on Sept. 13, but they have lost their last two and play again three days before this one. The prices that hold up are Under 2.5 goals at 2.8 and a goalless first half at 3.8.

Context

New England won the Sept. 13 meeting 2-1 at Chicago and now hosts the return with the clubs separated by two points in the Eastern Conference — Chicago second on 48, New England fourth on 46. The earlier game shows New England can win while conceding territory: Chicago had 22 shots and 13 corners to New England's four shots and none from corners. That result is a single sample and New England has since lost twice, so it sets a competitive baseline rather than a repeatable edge.
- New England won 2-1 at Chicago on Sept. 13, 2026.
- Dor Turgeman scored his seventh goal of the season and assisted on Peyton Miller's fifth.
- Jackson Yueill recorded the first multi-assist game of his MLS career and Matt Turner made four saves.
- Josh Wynder made his club and MLS debut as a 69th-minute substitute.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:15 · Europe/BucharestNew England Revolution match recapwww.revolutionsoccer.net · 13 Sep 2026
Lewandowski is Chicago's leading scorer and most experienced attacker, so his condition shapes how the Fire set up in New England. He was ill before the Oct. 7 Vancouver match, came on in the 76th minute and assisted, then started and played 71 minutes in the Oct. 10 win over NYCFC, where he was replaced at 1-1. That pattern suggests his workload is being managed rather than a guaranteed 90 minutes. The counterpoint is that his recent output is modest by his standards — one shot in the NYCFC win — so the threat rests on reputation as much as current form.
- Lewandowski has scored 6 goals in 13 MLS games for Chicago this season.
- He reached 10 goal contributions in 10 starts on Oct. 10, 2026.
- He was ill before the Oct. 7 win over Vancouver and came on in the 76th minute to provide an assist.
- He started and played 71 minutes in the Oct. 10 win over NYCFC, taking one shot.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Gil is New England's captain and primary creator, and his production drives a young side that often cedes control. He scored twice in the Sept. 20 win over Orlando, passing his previous single-season goal high, and made the league's Team of the Matchday with Peyton Miller. In the September meeting with Chicago, however, New England managed just four shots, so Gil's individual output has not always converted into territorial command of this matchup.
- Gil's 12th goal of 2026, scored Sept. 20 against Orlando City, passed his previous single-season high with New England.
- He had 12 goals and 9 assists in 26 games at that point.
- He and Peyton Miller both made MLS Team of the Matchday after the Orlando win.
- Carles Gil started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 450 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Haile-Selassie has become Chicago's second attacking outlet alongside Lewandowski, and the extension ends the uncertainty around a contract that expired after the season. On Oct. 10 he linked with Lewandowski to set up Anton Salétros's equaliser and then scored the winner as the Fire played much of the second half with ten men. For New England that widens the defensive brief beyond one striker. The extension itself does not change his availability, which was never in doubt for this trip.
- Chicago agreed a long-term extension with Haile-Selassie on Oct. 8, 2026, with the deal running to summer 2029.
- Haile-Selassie has 10 goals and 10 assists this season, the second player in Fire history to reach both marks.
- On Oct. 10 he set up Anton Salétros's equaliser and scored the winner against NYCFC.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:15 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

New England Revolution or Chicago Fire

1.25fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 80%

−7.0ppshort

New England's home record and September win at Chicago give them a slight edge between two closely matched teams. Chicago have the stronger overall scoring record and the better recent form of the two sides.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
New England's home record and September win at Chicago give them a slight edge between two closely matched teams.
- New England are 9-2-3 at home in 2026 with 26 goals scored and 16 conceded
- New England won 2-1 at Chicago on 13 September 2026
- Chicago's away record is 5-5-4 with 24 scored and 24 conceded
- New England average 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded across tracked matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNew England RevolutionEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly, making a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- First halves average under 1 goal for each side across the tracked windows
- Chicago were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches
- New England were not level at half-time in any of their last 6 matches
- Chicago average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.53 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's stronger second-half scoring makes them the more likely side to win the closing period.
- Chicago average 1.2 second-half goals scored
- New England average 1.0 second-half goals conceded
- Chicago won the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches
- New England lost the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostChicago FireEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
New England's home record and September win at Chicago give them a slight edge between two closely matched teams. Chicago have the stronger overall scoring record and the better recent form of the two sides.
- New England are 9-2-3 at home in 2026 with 26 goals scored and 16 conceded
- New England won 2-1 at Chicago on 13 September 2026
- Chicago sit 3rd on 48 points with 51 goals scored in 28 matches
- Chicago have scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches at 1.8 goals per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNew England Revolution or Chicago FireEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England's slightly better first-half scoring gives them the better chance of a half-time lead. Both teams start slowly, making a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- New England average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.67 against
- Chicago average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.53 against
- First halves average under 1 goal for each side across the tracked windows
- Chicago were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede often enough to make three or more goals more likely than not.
- New England's tracked matches average 3.0 total goals
- Chicago's tracked matches average 3.2 total goals
- Both teams scored in 9 of New England's 15 and 12 of Chicago's 15 tracked matches
- Chicago have scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both sides score in most matches and neither defends cleanly enough to stop the other.
- Both teams scored in 9 of New England's 15 tracked matches
- Both teams scored in 12 of Chicago's 15 tracked matches
- New England's home matches average 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against
- Chicago have scored in 14 of 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New England's home scoring has been modest enough that one goal or fewer is a realistic outcome.
- New England scored in only 3 of 6 home matches
- New England average 1.5 goals per home match
- Chicago's away matches average 1.75 conceded
- New England were held to one goal or fewer in most home games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNew England Revolution under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's away scoring has been uneven, making one goal or fewer plausible.
- Chicago scored once or fewer in 4 of 8 away matches
- Chicago average 1.625 goals per away match
- New England kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
- Chicago were held to one goal in three of their last five away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonChicago Fire under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both sides have usually produced at least one first-half goal.
- New England average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.67 against
- Chicago average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.53 against
- New England's last 6 matches each produced a first-half goal
- Chicago's last 6 matches produced a first-half goal in 5 of them
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede and score after the break, particularly Chicago, so two or more second-half goals is likely.
- New England average 0.83 second-half goals for and 1.0 against
- Chicago average 1.2 second-half goals for and 0.87 against
- Chicago scored 2 second-half goals in each of their last two matches
- New England's last two matches each had 2 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's low away corner counts make a total under this line reasonable.
- Chicago's away matches average 8.25 total corners
- Chicago average 4.33 corners per match
- New England's home matches average 12.5 total corners
- The last meeting produced 13 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match shot counts for both sides point to a total below 30.
- New England's home matches average 24.3 total shots
- Chicago's away matches average 26.5 total shots
- Both teams average under 15 shots each
- The last meeting produced 26 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 29.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side generates enough shots on target to make 12 likely.
- New England's home matches average 10.2 total shots on target
- Chicago's away matches average 10.0 total shots on target
- Both teams average fewer than 6 shots on target each
- The last meeting produced 9 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Average booking counts for both teams sit just under the line.
- New England's home matches average 2.83 total cards
- New England average 1.87 yellow cards per match
- Chicago average 1.93 yellow cards per match
- Both teams' opponents average about 1-2 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2Chicago FirevNew England RevolutionSep 13, 2026MAJ

D2-2New England RevolutionvChicago FireOct 18, 2025MAJ

L3-2Chicago FirevNew England RevolutionSep 7, 2025MAJ

L1-3New England RevolutionvChicago FireMay 20, 2025US

W0-1Chicago FirevNew England RevolutionMay 5, 2024MAJ

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	28	14	4	10	45-39	46	LLWWW
3	Chicago Fire Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	28	14	6	8	51-40	48	WWWLL