New England Revolution0Seattle Sounders3

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 8–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 00:35 · Europe/Bucharest

New England's strong home record meets Seattle's winless road run and the absence of Sounders top scorer Paul Rothrock, while the Revolution are missing Jack Harrison and Alhassan Yusuf.

New England look the more likely winners at Gillette. The quoted prices offering the most are more than 10.5 corners at 1.91, fewer than three goals at 2.50 and no first-half goals at 3.60; New England's win at 1.85 offers no clear advantage.

Context

New England stayed second in the Eastern Conference with seven matches left after the Sept 27 loss at Real Salt Lake, and reporter Caleb Pongratz noted six of those opponents sat in playoff places. Seattle ended a 13-game winless run on Sept 24 and sat level with ninth-place Portland on 32 points, so this is a road game where the visitors need results. That gap, top seed against playoff bubble, frames the occasion and how both sides approach it. It is not a form mismatch: the Sounders have since won three straight, all at home, leaving their road level the open question.
- Reporter Caleb Pongratz noted on Sept 28 that New England stayed second in the Eastern Conference with seven matches left and that six of those opponents occupied playoff places, listing Seattle as ninth in the West.
- Sounders reporter ELROLONW reported on Sept 24 that a 2-0 win over Real Salt Lake ended a 13-game winless run and left Seattle level with ninth-place Portland on 32 points.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest
Seattle's club-confirmed timeline runs 8 to 10 weeks from a hamstring injury that involves the tendon, picked up in the Sept 13 draw at LA Galaxy, which points to a return in November. The absence therefore covers this fixture rather than being a short-term doubt. It takes the Sounders' most productive wide scorer out of a run-in where they are chasing playoff position, thinning the attacking options for a long trip east. The 8 to 10 week figure is an estimate, so only the minimum is firm.
- The Seattle Times reported on Sept 15 that Rothrock, the team's top goal scorer, would miss 8 to 10 weeks with a right hamstring injury.
- Sounders reporter ELROLONW reported the injury involves his tendon and was picked up in the Sept 13 draw at LA Galaxy.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest
New England's own statement on Sept 16 set a minimum six-week absence for Harrison, a forward injured in the Sept 9 win at New York City FC. That minimum runs into late October, so he is unavailable for this match and the Revs must again cover an attacking spot during a home run-in that decides their seeding. The club has issued no revision shortening the timeline. Six weeks is a floor rather than a return date, so the absence could stretch further.
- New England's statement on Sept 16 said Harrison would miss at least six weeks with a proximal quad injury sustained in the Sept 9 win at New York City FC.
- J. Harrison started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The Revolution confirmed on Sept 16 that Yusuf, forced off in the 20th minute of the Sept 9 win at New York City FC, would miss at least six weeks with a hamstring strain. That window extends beyond this fixture, so the hosts are without a midfield regular as they protect a high seed across a closing run of playoff-calibre opponents. As with the club's other six-week case, only a minimum was given, so the actual return could drift later.
- New England's statement on Sept 16 said Yusuf would miss at least six weeks with a hamstring strain sustained in the Sept 9 win at New York City FC.
- The club's match updates show Yusuf was forced off in the 20th minute of that game.
- A. Yusuf started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
New England's strong home record and Seattle's winless away run, made harder by the loss of Seattle's leading scorer, favour the hosts.
- New England are 9-2-2 at home in MLS this season, scoring 26 and conceding 13 in 13 home games.
- Seattle are 3-5-5 away (12 goals for, 15 against) and have won none of their six away matches inside the tracked window.
- Seattle's away split is 1.0 goal scored and 1.83 conceded per match.
- Sounders top scorer Paul Rothrock is out 8-10 weeks with a hamstring injury.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
New England start games well at home while Seattle barely score before the break on the road.
- New England's home split shows 0.83 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Seattle's away split shows 0.17 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- New England led at half-time in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New England are the stronger second-half team at home, though the margin over Seattle is small.
- New England's home split shows 1.0 second-half goals for and 0.67 against.
- Seattle's away split shows 0.83 second-half goals for and 0.83 against.
- New England scored three second-half goals in their 4-2 home win over Orlando City.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England's strong home record and Seattle's winless away run, made harder by the loss of Seattle's leading scorer, favour the hosts. Seattle have repeatedly taken a point on the road and the recent head-to-head record is full of draws.
- New England are 9-2-2 at home in MLS this season, scoring 26 and conceding 13 in 13 home games.
- Seattle are 3-5-5 away (12 goals for, 15 against) and have won none of their six away matches inside the tracked window.
- Seattle have drawn 5 of 13 away league matches and 5 of 15 tracked matches.
- Four of the last five meetings between these clubs ended level.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
New England start games well at home while Seattle barely score before the break on the road. A low-scoring opening period is the single most common first-half outcome even when one side is favoured.
- New England's home split shows 0.83 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Seattle's away split shows 0.17 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
- New England concede just 0.5 first-half goals per home match.
- Seattle concede 1.0 first-half goal per away match but score only 0.17.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to around three goals per match, and New England's recent games have all cleared this line.
- New England's tracked matches average 3.0 total goals (1.67 for, 1.33 against).
- Seattle's away matches average 2.83 total goals (1.0 for, 1.83 against).
- All six of New England's recent matches produced three or more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both sides have scored in most of their home and away matches and neither defence has been reliably tight.
- New England have both scored and conceded in 10 of 15 matches; Seattle in 9 of 15.
- Both teams scored in 4 of New England's 6 home matches and 4 of Seattle's 6 away matches.
- New England's home split concedes 1.17 goals per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New England's home scoring rate and Seattle's away concession rate together make two or more home goals more likely than not.
- New England average 1.83 goals per home match and scored in 4 of 6 home matches.
- New England's league home record is 26 goals in 13 games, 2.0 per match.
- Seattle concede 1.83 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNew England Revolution over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Seattle almost never score twice on the road and are missing their main finisher.
- Seattle's six away matches produced 1.0 goal per game.
- Seattle have 12 goals in 13 away league games this season.
- Paul Rothrock, their top scorer, is ruled out.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSeattle Sounders under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New England rarely shut opponents out at home, and Seattle have scored in most away games.
- New England kept only one clean sheet in six home matches.
- Seattle scored in four of six away matches.
- New England have two clean sheets in 15 tracked matches overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSeattle Sounders to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals appear in the large majority of both teams' home and away matches.
- New England's home split averages 1.33 total first-half goals per match.
- Seattle's away split averages 1.17 total first-half goals per match.
- Five of New England's last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to roughly 1.7 second-half goals per match.
- New England's home second-half total averages 1.67 goals per match.
- Seattle's away second-half total averages 1.67 goals per match.
- New England have scored 3, 1, 1, 1, 1 and 1 goals in the second half of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
New England generate a lot of corners at home while Seattle concede more than they win on the road.
- New England's home matches average 13.5 total corners (7.33 for, 6.17 against).
- Seattle's away matches average 10.0 total corners (3.33 for, 6.67 against).
- New England's tracked matches average 11.6 corners combined.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Seattle's away matches generate a high volume of shots on target, and New England's home matches sit right at the line.
- New England's home matches average 10.33 combined shots on target.
- Seattle's away matches average 12.33 combined shots on target.
- Seattle's recent matches averaged about 11.7 combined shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's tracked home or away matches average four cards, so a quieter match is more likely.
- New England's home matches average 2.83 yellow cards total.
- Seattle's away matches average 2.4 yellow cards total.
- Seattle's opponent bookings away from home are 1.0 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

0W · 4D · 1W

L2-0Seattle SoundersvNew England RevolutionJul 7, 2024MAJ

D0-0New England RevolutionvSeattle SoundersApr 7, 2021FRI

D3-3Seattle SoundersvNew England RevolutionAug 10, 2019MAJ

D0-0New England RevolutionvSeattle SoundersJul 7, 2018MAJ

D3-3Seattle SoundersvNew England RevolutionApr 30, 2017MAJ

Seattle Sounders unbeaten in 5 meetingsNew England Revolution: 2 clean sheetsSeattle Sounders: 3 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	27	14	4	9	45-36	46	LWWWL
7	Seattle Sounders Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	27	10	8	9	35-35	38	WWWDD