Cincinnati2New England Revolution3

HT 1–2Wed 14 Oct 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 21–10On targetOn target 9–5CornersCorners 12–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Cincinnati need home points to keep their playoff push going; New England sit fourth but arrive after two 0-3 defeats.

The home side's scoring makes them the likelier winner, though 65 goals conceded this season and Evander's late fitness call keep the visitors in it. No quoted price is worth backing: Cincinnati at 1.85, Over 2.5 at 1.38, both teams to score at 1.40 and either team to win at 1.25 all ask for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Evander has 13 assists this season, so his availability materially shapes how Cincinnati create chances. He trained fully on 12 October for the first time since a leg injury, and the club can now evaluate whether he is ready. The earlier team news listed him as out, which is why this reads as a late matchday call rather than a confirmed return. If he is limited or rested, Cincinnati lose their leading set-up threat for a game they need to win.
- Evander took part in full training on 12 October for the first time since a leg injury and was available for evaluation ahead of the match.
- Evander has 13 assists this season, among the MLS leaders.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Cincinnati's 65 goals conceded is the clearest weakness attached to this fixture and gives New England a route even on the road. The number is season-long, spanning earlier personnel and coaching phases, so it does not map cleanly onto the current back line. The most recent evidence is more encouraging: Cincinnati held Atlanta to one goal in a 3-1 win on 10 October, their best defensive display in weeks. The tension between that result and the broader record is the key uncertainty for this match.
- FC Cincinnati have conceded 65 goals in 2026, the second-worst total in the Eastern Conference.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/BucharestRevs at FC Cincinnati matchday guidewww.revolutionsoccer.net · 12 Oct 2026
New England's 4-1-1 away record against Cincinnati is one of the few historical patterns that favours the visitors. It is a multi-season record, so it reflects earlier squads rather than this exact matchup. The most recent TQL Stadium meeting, a 1-0 Cincinnati win on 5 April 2025, is a more current reference point. The away record is useful as background and as a reason to expect New England to travel with belief.
- New England's away record against FC Cincinnati is 4-1-1.
- Cincinnati won the last meeting at TQL Stadium 1-0 on 5 April 2025.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/BucharestRevs at FC Cincinnati matchday guidewww.revolutionsoccer.net · 12 Oct 2026
New England are without three likely contributors, which reduces Marko Mitrović's options for a road game against an urgent opponent. The impact is amplified if Cincinnati's defensive record forces the visitors to chase the match, since the replacements come from a young squad. Leonardo Campana's continued absence is a separate, older situation: he has played only 110 minutes this season and has not appeared since March. The names that change the available XI are Yusuf, Harrison and Fofana.
- New England's unavailable list for this fixture includes Alhassan Yusuf (muscle), Jack Harrison and M. Fofana, with Leonardo Campana still a doubt.
- Campana has two appearances and 110 minutes this season and has not featured since March.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 16:46 · Europe/BucharestNew England vs FC Cincinnati team newswww.fotmob.com · 12 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Cincinnati or New England Revolution

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

Cincinnati score heavily at home while New England's away record is mixed, so the home side has the strongest single chance. New England's away results and Cincinnati's heavy conceding give the visitors a realistic path to a win.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

−4.5ppshort

Both defences concede regularly and both attacks score, so three goals or more is the more likely outcome.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

−3.4ppshort

Cincinnati rarely shut opponents out and usually score at home, so both teams finding the net is the likelier result.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.85
The read
Cincinnati score heavily at home while New England's away record is mixed, so the home side has the strongest single chance.
- Cincinnati are 5W-2D-1L at home in the tracked window, averaging 2.5 goals scored per home game.
- Cincinnati's league home record is 7W-3D-2L with 34 goals in 12 games.
- New England's away window is 4W-1D-4L, scoring 1.56 and conceding 1.44 per game.
- New England won 6-1 at home in March 2026 and are 4-1-1 away to Cincinnati across this series.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCincinnatiEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are close, so a level opening period is plausible.
- Cincinnati's home window shows 1.375 first-half goals for and 0.875 against.
- New England's away window shows 0.889 first-half goals for and 0.778 against.
- Neither side averages more than 1.4 first-half goals in the relevant venue split.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's second-half scoring at home makes them the more likely side to win the closing period.
- Cincinnati average 1.125 second-half goals at home; New England 0.667 second-half goals away.
- Cincinnati concede 0.75 second-half goals at home; New England concede 0.667 away.
- Cincinnati scored all three goals after half-time in their 3-1 win at Atlanta.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCincinnatiEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Cincinnati score heavily at home while New England's away record is mixed, so the home side has the strongest single chance. New England's away results and Cincinnati's heavy conceding give the visitors a realistic path to a win.
- Cincinnati are 5W-2D-1L at home in the tracked window, averaging 2.5 goals scored per home game.
- Cincinnati's league home record is 7W-3D-2L with 34 goals in 12 games.
- New England sit fourth on 46 points, 10 clear of Cincinnati.
- New England's away window is 4W-1D-4L with 1.56 scored per game.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCincinnati or New England RevolutionEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's home first-half scoring gives them the better chance of leading at the break. Both teams' first-half scoring rates are close, so a level opening period is plausible.
- Cincinnati average 1.375 first-half goals at home; New England concede 0.778 first-half goals away.
- New England average 0.889 first-half goals away; Cincinnati concede 0.875 at home.
- Cincinnati's home window shows 1.375 first-half goals for and 0.875 against.
- New England's away window shows 0.889 first-half goals for and 0.778 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostCincinnati or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both defences concede regularly and both attacks score, so three goals or more is the more likely outcome.
- Cincinnati's home window averages 2.5 scored and 1.63 conceded per game.
- New England's away window averages 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
- Cincinnati have one clean sheet and New England two across their window matches.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Cincinnati's 15 window matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Cincinnati rarely shut opponents out and usually score at home, so both teams finding the net is the likelier result.
- Cincinnati have one clean sheet in 15 window matches and New England two.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Cincinnati's 15 window matches and 9 of New England's 15.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Cincinnati's 8 home matches in the window.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cincinnati's home scoring rate makes two or more goals from them the likely outcome.
- Cincinnati average 2.5 goals at home in the window and scored 34 in 12 league home games.
- New England concede 1.44 goals per away game in the window.
- Cincinnati scored at least twice in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCincinnati over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New England's away output is modest, so one goal or none is the likelier side of this line.
- New England failed to score in two of their last three matches.
- New England average 1.36 goals across 14 league away games.
- Cincinnati have one clean sheet in 15 window matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostNew England Revolution under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The venue splits point to a lively first half even though recent opening periods have been quiet.
- Cincinnati's home window averages 2.25 first-half goals combined; New England's away window 1.67.
- Cincinnati scored a first-half goal in only one of their last six matches.
- New England scored first-half goals in three straight matches before their last two.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' recent matches have been busy, so two or more after the break is the likelier side.
- Cincinnati home matches average 1.875 second-half goals; New England away matches 1.33.
- Cincinnati's last six matches each produced at least three second-half goals.
- New England's last six matches produced two or more second-half goals in five of them.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Average corner totals for both sides fall short of 11.5.
- Cincinnati home matches average 9.71 corners combined.
- New England away matches average 10.44 corners combined.
- Cincinnati's home window shows 5.86 corners for and 3.86 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New England's away shot volume can fall short, pulling the combined total under the line.
- New England away matches average 29.0 total shots.
- Cincinnati home matches average 30.14 total shots.
- New England managed only four shots at Chicago.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 29.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New England's away games average fewer than 11.5 shots on target combined, slightly favouring the under.
- New England away window: 5.78 shots on target for and 4.56 against, 10.33 combined.
- New England produced two shots on target at Chicago.
- Cincinnati home window combined shots on target average 11.71.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 11.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
New England's away matches average below the line, making the under the slightly more likely side.
- New England away window: 1.89 yellow cards for and 1.11 against, 3.0 combined.
- Cincinnati home window combined average is 3.71.
- Cincinnati average 1.85 yellow cards per match across the full window.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L6-1New England RevolutionvFC CincinnatiMar 15, 2026MAJ

D1-1New England RevolutionvFC CincinnatiJan 23, 2026FRI

W0-1New England RevolutionvFC CincinnatiJun 14, 2025MAJ

L1-0FC CincinnativNew England RevolutionApr 5, 2025MAJ

W1-2FC CincinnativNew England RevolutionJun 22, 2024MAJ

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Cincinnati Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	27	9	9	9	58-65	36	WLDDL
4	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	28	14	4	10	45-39	46	LLWWW