FC Tulsa2Oakland Roots4

HT 1–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–1038%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 16:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Tulsa's home finale has one side chasing seeding and the other chasing survival: Tulsa are already in the playoffs and want a home opener, while Oakland sit four points outside the places with two matches left.

Tulsa's home defence — five clean sheets in seven home matches, two conceded — against Oakland's four straight shutouts points to few goals, so under 2.5 at 1.88 and both teams to score "no" at 2.0 carry something, along with other supported low-goal prices.

Context

Oakland's goalless draw with San Antonio on 11 October left it four points adrift of the eighth and final Western Conference place with two matches remaining. That turns the Tulsa visit from a routine road game into a result the club has to chase, which tends to commit bodies forward and raise the value of set pieces and late-game risk. The counterweight is that Oakland's path is not fully in its own hands: it also needs results elsewhere to go its way in the final weekend.
- Oakland Roots drew 0-0 with San Antonio on 11 October 2026.
- That result left Oakland four points shy of a playoff place with two matches left in the regular season.
- San Antonio held the final Western Conference playoff spot at the time.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:34 · Europe/Bucharest
Tulsa secured its 2026 playoff place on 11 October and then built its home-finale ticket offer around locking in a Round 1 home playoff game. That gives the home side a seed to protect even though its post-season survival is already assured, which can shape how aggressively it manages the closing weeks. The practical limit is that Tulsa cannot fall out of the bracket, so the fixture carries seeding rather than elimination pressure.
- FC Tulsa clinched a 2026 USL Championship playoff place on 11 October 2026.
- The club's regular-season home finale is Saturday, 17 October, against Oakland at ONEOK Field.
- Tulsa is selling Round 1 home playoff tickets tied to the result of where that game lands.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:34 · Europe/Bucharest
McIntosh kept a fourth consecutive clean sheet in Oakland's 0-0 draw with San Antonio on 11 October and was named to the league's Team of the Week, with his penalty stop nominated for Save of the Week. He is the last line of a defence that has not conceded in four matches, so the run is a plausible reason to expect a low-scoring away performance. The caution is that clean sheets are a team measure: the defenders and midfield screening in front of him share credit, and a Tulsa side still chasing seeding will test that record directly.
- Kendall McIntosh was named to the USL Championship Team of the Week after a fourth consecutive clean sheet.
- His penalty save in the 0-0 draw with San Antonio was nominated for the league's Save of the Week.
- K. McIntosh started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 16:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The two most recent meetings each ended 1-1, and none of the five supplied meetings since May 2024 produced more than two goals. Tulsa's only win in the series came 1-0 at Oakland on 29 September 2024, while Oakland won 2-1 at ONEOK Field on 13 April 2025. That record of tight games is the backdrop to Saturday's finale.
- 19 April 2026: Oakland Roots 1-1 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship.
- 21 September 2025: Oakland Roots 1-1 FC Tulsa.
- 13 April 2025: FC Tulsa 1-2 Oakland Roots at ONEOK Field.
- 29 September 2024: Oakland Roots 0-1 FC Tulsa; 25 May 2024: FC Tulsa 0-1 Oakland Roots complete the five supplied meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa have the better home record and a much tighter home defence, while Oakland have managed only three goals in seven away matches.
- Tulsa home league record 7W-4D-3L, 14 scored and 8 conceded in 14 games
- Tulsa tracked home games: 4W-2D-1L with 5 scored and 2 conceded in 7
- Oakland tracked away games: 2W-2D-3L with 3 scored and 3 conceded in 7
- Oakland sit 11th, four points outside the playoff places with two games left
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
First-half scoring is low for both sides, so the interval often ends level.
- Tulsa home first-half goals for 0.57, Oakland away first-half goals for 0.00
- Oakland overall first-half goals for 0.40 per game
- Tulsa overall first-half goals conceded 0.13 per game
- Oakland away first-half goals conceded 0.43 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is modest for both sides, making a level closing period the most likely single result.
- Tulsa home second-half goals total 0.43 per game
- Oakland away second-half goals total 0.72 per game
- Tulsa home second-half goals for 0.14 per game
- Oakland away second-half goals for 0.43 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Tulsa have the better home record and a much tighter home defence, while Oakland have managed only three goals in seven away matches. Both teams draw often and recent meetings have been tight and low-scoring, with Oakland's away attack quiet.
- Tulsa home league record 7W-4D-3L, 14 scored and 8 conceded in 14 games
- Tulsa tracked home games: 4W-2D-1L with 5 scored and 2 conceded in 7
- Tulsa have drawn 6 of 15 tracked matches, Oakland 5 of 15
- Tulsa home tracked 2 draws in 7; Oakland away tracked 2 draws in 7
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Tulsa have scored first-half goals at home while Oakland have not scored a first-half goal away in the tracked sample. First-half scoring is low for both sides, so the interval often ends level.
- Tulsa home first-half goals for 0.57 per game, against 0.00
- Oakland away first-half goals for 0.00, against 0.43
- Tulsa home first-half goals for 0.57, Oakland away first-half goals for 0.00
- Oakland overall first-half goals for 0.40 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance87%

Goals4 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Both teams' tracked home and away samples are low-scoring and recent meetings have produced few goals.
- Tulsa's 7 tracked home games produced 7 goals in total
- Oakland's 7 tracked away games produced 6 goals in total
- Four of the last five meetings had two goals or fewer
- Tulsa's last six matches averaged 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Tulsa's home defence and Oakland's quiet away attack make a clean sheet for one side likely.
- Tulsa kept 5 clean sheets in 7 tracked home games
- Oakland scored only 3 goals in 7 tracked away games
- Only 5 of Tulsa's 15 tracked matches had both teams score
- Oakland's away split had one both-teams-scored game in 7
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa have rarely scored more than once at home in the tracked sample.
- Tulsa average 0.71 goals in 7 tracked home games
- Tulsa scored 5 goals across those 7 home matches
- Oakland concede 0.71 per match in 7 tracked away games
- Tulsa's last six matches produced 5 goals in total
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Tulsa under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Oakland have scored at most once in their tracked away matches against a home side conceding very little.
- Oakland average 0.43 goals in 7 tracked away games
- Oakland scored 3 goals across those 7 away matches
- Tulsa concede 0.29 per match in 7 tracked home games
- Tulsa kept 5 clean sheets in those 7 home games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostOakland Roots under 1.5Estimated chance89%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa have conceded just twice in seven tracked home games and Oakland's away scoring has been limited.
- Tulsa kept 5 clean sheets in 7 tracked home games
- Tulsa conceded 2 goals in those 7 home matches
- Oakland scored 3 goals in 7 tracked away games
- Oakland were shut out twice in their last six matches while keeping four clean sheets
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostOakland Roots not to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa score in the majority of their home games, so Oakland keeping them out is less likely than not.
- Tulsa average 0.71 goals in 7 tracked home games
- Tulsa scored 5 goals across those 7 home matches
- Oakland conceded 3 goals in 7 tracked away games
- Oakland lost 4-1 at home to Lexington
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Tulsa to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa can win without a clean sheet, and their low-scoring home games often finish by a single goal either way.
- Tulsa won 4 of 7 tracked home games
- Tulsa have won by a one-goal margin in several recent home matches
- Oakland scored 3 goals in 7 tracked away games
- Both teams scored in 5 of Tulsa's 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
An Oakland away win with a clean sheet is a narrow path given their low away scoring.
- Oakland won 2 of 7 tracked away games
- Oakland scored only 3 goals in those 7 matches
- Tulsa scored in most of their 7 tracked home games
- Tulsa lost only 1 of 7 tracked home games
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The venue samples point to about one first-half goal every two games or slightly more often.
- Tulsa's 7 tracked home games average 0.57 first-half goals in total
- Oakland's 7 tracked away games average 0.43 first-half goals in total
- Tulsa overall first-half goals for 0.67 per game
- Oakland overall first-half goals for 0.40 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half goal for each side requires an Oakland away first-half goal that has not appeared in their tracked away sample.
- Tulsa concede 0.13 first-half goals per game
- Oakland score 0.00 first-half goals per away game in 7
- Oakland overall first-half goals for 0.40 per game
- Tulsa home first-half goals against 0.00 in 7
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides average well under one second-half goal each in their venue samples.
- Tulsa home second-half goals total 0.43 per game
- Oakland away second-half goals total 0.72 per game
- Tulsa home second-half goals against 0.29 per game
- Oakland away second-half goals against 0.29 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance79%