New Mexico United or Draw
Market 74.1% · BetBugs 75%
New Mexico United are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 home matches while FC Tulsa have won only 3 of 7 away this season.
USL ChampionshipFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
The only value bet is New Mexico United or Draw (double chance) at 1.35, with a slight +1 point edge.
Avoid the match winner, over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and first-half over 0.5 goals—all are overpriced relative to our model. FC Tulsa's 2025 dominance in this fixture is a key risk factor.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Market 74.1% · BetBugs 75%
New Mexico United are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 home matches while FC Tulsa have won only 3 of 7 away this season.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%
New Mexico's recent home form has been high-scoring, but the H2H record and Tulsa's solid defensive numbers temper the over.
BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%
Both teams have consistent scoring records, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model suggests.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 49% vs our 45% estimate leaves no value; the H2H record and medium confidence make this a coin-flip at current odds.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New Mexico UnitedPlay Offs: 1/8-finals | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 25-17 | 30 |
| 4 | FC TulsaPlay Offs: 1/8-finals | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 20-17 | 29 |

