FC Tulsa1Sacramento Republic1

HT 1–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges4–450%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 04:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Tulsa's home defence — five clean sheets in seven home matches — against a Sacramento side that has won its last two games 3-2.

The likely read is a tight, low-scoring night that Tulsa edge. Seven reviewed prices are assessed as potential value, led by both teams to score – No at 1.8, under 2.5 goals at 1.6 and a Tulsa win at 2.9; the draw at 3 and Sacramento at 2.4 are the ones to leave.

Context

Tulsa have conceded three goals across seven home matches and scored five, so their home games have averaged 1.14 goals in total.
That defensive record is the main reason this looks like a tight, low-scoring fixture, though it rests on a seven-match sample and Tulsa's home scoring rate of 0.71 goals per game leaves little room to win comfortably.
- Seven home matches tracked from 21 June 2026 to 1 October 2026: 4W-1D-2L.
- Five clean sheets in those seven home matches, with 0.43 goals conceded per home match.
- 0.71 goals scored per home match and an average of 1.14 goals in total per home match.
Six draws and two defeats in 15 matches means Sacramento have rarely been beaten this season, even if they have not dominated opponents either.
A side that has lost twice in 15 will not be straightforward to beat at home, and six draws across the same run point to a tight game rather than an open one; the counterweight is that Sacramento have only won seven of those 15, so the record does not suggest they will take the game away from Tulsa.
- 15 matches tracked from 9 July 2026 to 1 October 2026: 7W-6D-2L.
- 1.53 goals scored and 0.93 goals conceded per match across those 15 matches.
- Six draws, eight matches in which both teams scored and five clean sheets in the same 15-match span.
Tulsa took that August meeting by a single goal, in a game that produced one goal in total.
It is one match rather than a trend, but it shows Tulsa can edge this opponent at home without the game opening up; Sacramento have since scored three in each of their last two matches, so a repeat of the same narrow scoreline is a possibility rather than a safe expectation.
- 6 August 2026, USL Championship: FC Tulsa 1-0 Sacramento Republic.
- One goal in the match, with the home side winning.
It was Sacramento's most recent away match, and they scored three times on the road after leading at the interval.
Tulsa have conceded in only two of seven home matches, so this result is the clearest reminder that a home clean sheet is not guaranteed here, though it is a single away match set against Sacramento's away average of 1.12 goals scored per game across eight road fixtures.
- 27 September 2026, USL Championship: New Mexico United 2-3 Sacramento Republic.
- Sacramento scored one first-half goal and two second-half goals in that away win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 7

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.90
The read
Tulsa's home defence has been tight and they have the better recent record in this fixture.
- Tulsa are 4W-1D-2L at home with five clean sheets in seven and 0.43 goals conceded per home match.
- Sacramento are 2W-4D-2L away, averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded.
- Tulsa won the 6 August 2026 meeting 1-0 and have won three of the last four head-to-heads.
- Tulsa's seven home matches average 1.14 total goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Both venue splits point to a quiet first half, with Sacramento in particular scoring little before the break on the road.
- Tulsa's home first halves average 0.57 goals scored and none conceded.
- Sacramento's away first halves average 0.25 scored and 0.375 conceded.
- Sacramento's away first-half goals total two in eight matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's second halves at home have produced few goals, which keeps the half level.
- Sacramento have drawn four of eight away matches.
- Tulsa's home second halves average 0.57 total goals.
- Tulsa score 0.33 second-half goals per match overall against 0.73 before half-time.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tulsa's home defence has been tight and they have the better recent record in this fixture. Sacramento's away form is draw-heavy and both venue splits point to few goals.
- Tulsa are 4W-1D-2L at home with five clean sheets in seven and 0.43 goals conceded per home match.
- Sacramento are 2W-4D-2L away, averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded.
- Sacramento have drawn four of eight away matches.
- Tulsa have drawn four of 15 and average 0.71 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Tulsa's first-half scoring is their main source of goals and they have not conceded before the break at home. Both venue splits point to a quiet first half, with Sacramento in particular scoring little before the break on the road.
- Tulsa average 0.73 first-half goals and 0.20 conceded across 15 matches.
- Tulsa have conceded no first-half goals in seven home matches.
- Tulsa's home first halves average 0.57 goals scored and none conceded.
- Sacramento's away first halves average 0.25 scored and 0.375 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both venue splits and the whole head-to-head record point to a low-scoring game.
- The four head-to-head meetings totalled 1, 2, 1 and 1 goals.
- Tulsa's home matches average 1.14 total goals and their 15-match average is 1.93.
- Tulsa have seven clean sheets in 15 and concede 0.87 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Tulsa's home clean-sheet record is the standout number in this fixture.
- Tulsa kept five clean sheets in seven home matches and concede 0.43 per home match.
- Sacramento failed to score in two of eight away matches.
- Both teams scored in one of Tulsa's seven home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's home matches have produced almost no goals for them.
- Tulsa have scored five goals in seven home matches.
- Tulsa scored in five of seven home matches and were shut out twice.
- Sacramento kept one clean sheet in eight away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFC Tulsa under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's home defence has conceded in only two of seven matches.
- Tulsa have conceded three goals in seven home matches, keeping five clean sheets.
- Tulsa concede 0.43 goals per home match.
- Sacramento's away scoring average is 1.12 goals per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSacramento Republic under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sacramento score in most of their away games, which makes a blank at Tulsa more likely than not to be avoided.
- Sacramento have scored in six of eight away matches.
- Sacramento average 1.53 goals scored per match overall.
- Tulsa conceded in two of seven home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSacramento Republic to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sacramento's away clean-sheet record is poor and Tulsa usually score at least once at home.
- Sacramento have one clean sheet in eight away matches.
- Tulsa scored in five of seven home matches.
- Tulsa average 0.71 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Tulsa to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sacramento rarely finish a match without scoring, so a Tulsa win with a clean sheet is not the main path.
- Sacramento failed to score in only two of eight away matches.
- Tulsa's home scoring average is 0.71 goals per match.
- Tulsa have four home wins in seven matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches on both sides have usually had a first-half goal, though Sacramento's away split is quieter.
- Tulsa's last six matches produced first-half goals in five, Sacramento's in four.
- Tulsa's first-half scoring average is 0.73; Sacramento's is 0.80.
- Sacramento's away first-half average is 0.25.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Tulsa rarely concede before half-time while Sacramento rarely score before it on the road.
- Tulsa have conceded three first-half goals across 15 matches.
- Sacramento average 0.25 first-half goals per away match.
- Sacramento have scored two first-half goals in eight away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's home second halves have been very quiet and their recent matches carry few late goals.
- Tulsa's home second halves average 0.57 total goals (0.14 for, 0.43 against).
- Tulsa's last six matches produced four second-half goals in total.
- Sacramento's away second halves average 1.63 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%