Brooklyn FC2FC Tulsa2

HT 0–2Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 03:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Tulsa are the better side and the more likely winner, but at 1.10 the match-winner price is far shorter than the model's 52% estimate, making it an avoid rather than a value play.

The cleaner read is match shape: Tulsa's defensive record and Brooklyn's scoring droughts, worsened by Markus Anderson's recall, support Under 2.5 and Both Teams to Score No leans, though Brooklyn's leaky defence keeps confidence only medium.

Context

Brooklyn must absorb the loss of Markus Anderson, recalled by Philadelphia Union on September 2 after 16 league appearances, 14 starts, six goals and four assists. That output had been a settled part of Brooklyn's attacking setup before this match.
Without Anderson, Brooklyn have to redistribute the attacking contribution he supplied, which changes their chance-creation and finishing options rather than simply removing a squad number. The linked reasoning points to a lower home goal total and a more realistic away clean sheet, though the replacement mix is not established here, so the size of the drop remains uncertain.
- Brooklyn officially announced Anderson's recall by Philadelphia Union on September 2.
- The club said he made 16 league appearances, including 14 starts, and recorded six goals and four assists.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 03:41 · Europe/BucharestBrooklyn FC: Markus Anderson recalled by Philadelphia Unionwww.brooklynfootballclub.com · 3 Sep 2026
Brooklyn FC sit 12th in the USL Championship with 17 points from 23 matches, and their home record is 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats in 11 games.
Their 11 goals scored and 11 conceded at home show they neither dominate nor collapse in front of their own crowd, so the venue does not clearly favour them. FC Tulsa's away record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats in 11 road games is solid enough to suggest they can compete here. The limit is that Brooklyn's overall defensive record of 43 goals conceded in 23 matches is the bigger concern, and their home numbers alone do not explain why they sit 12th.
- Brooklyn FC home record in the 2026 USL Championship: 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats in 11 matches, with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded.
- Brooklyn FC overall record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats in 23 matches, with 23 goals scored and 43 conceded.
- FC Tulsa away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats in 11 matches, with 15 goals scored and 14 conceded.
Brooklyn travelled to Indy Eleven on September 15, return home for this match, then go to Birmingham Legion on September 23. That is three matches in nine days around the Tulsa fixture.
The compressed sequence limits recovery and preparation time, which can affect physical freshness and the scope for rotation across the three games. The claim does not specify which players carry the heaviest load, so the practical effect on Brooklyn's lineup for this match stays open.
- Brooklyn reported travelling to Indiana for the September 15 match against Indy Eleven.
- The club scheduled an away match at Birmingham Legion for September 23, four days after Tulsa.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 03:41 · Europe/BucharestBrooklyn FC match previewwww.brooklynfootballclub.com · 18 Sep 2026
FC Tulsa are ranked fourth in the USL Championship with 36 points from 23 matches, holding a playoff position. Brooklyn FC are 12th with 17 points from the same number of games.
Tulsa's 10 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats have them in the playoff places, and their goal difference of +6 reflects a side that generally avoids heavy defeats. Brooklyn's -20 goal difference and 14 defeats show they have struggled to stay in games, especially away from home. The standings gap does not guarantee a result, but it shapes how each team is likely to approach the match: Tulsa protecting a playoff spot, Brooklyn trying to close a 19-point gap to the top.
- FC Tulsa: rank 4, 36 points, 10 wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, goal difference +6.
- Brooklyn FC: rank 12, 17 points, 4 wins, 5 draws, 14 defeats, goal difference -20.
- Points gap between the two teams: 19 points.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's superior table position, positive goal difference and functional away record outweigh Brooklyn's modest home solidity, with the H2H psychology also favouring the visitors.
- FC Tulsa sit 4th in the Western Conference on 36 points (10W-6D-7L, +6 GD) vs Brooklyn 12th on 17 points (4W-5D-14L, -20 GD)
- Tulsa away record 4W-3D-4L with 15 scored and 14 conceded in 11 road games
- Brooklyn home record 3W-2D-6L, 11 scored and 11 conceded in 11 home games
- H2H: Tulsa won the most recent meeting 2-1 (2026-09-19 listed result)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC TulsaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's low loss rate and Brooklyn's poor home win rate make the draw-or-away double chance the highest-probability outcome, supported by the structural home/away split.
- Tulsa have lost only 7 of 23 league games (30%) and drawn 6
- Brooklyn have lost 14 of 23 (61%) and won just 3 of 11 home matches
- Tulsa away: 4W-3D-4L, avoiding defeat in 7 of 11 road games
- Brooklyn's last 5 league form: L-D-L-W-L, including a 0-4 loss at Indy Eleven
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC TulsaEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's strong half-time leading rate and low first-half concession rate contrast sharply with Brooklyn's habit of trailing at the break, though the low first-half scoring keeps confidence low.
- Tulsa lead at half-time in 47% of matches vs Brooklyn's 27%
- Tulsa concede only 0.3 first-half goals per game vs Brooklyn's 1.0
- Brooklyn trail at half-time in 47% of matches
- Tulsa score 0.7 first-half goals per game, Brooklyn 0.7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC TulsaEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's strong half-time profile (47% leading, 13% trailing) against Brooklyn's 47% trailing rate makes the draw-or-Tulsa first-half double chance the safer opening-period play.
- Tulsa lead at half-time in 47% of matches and trail in only 13%
- Brooklyn trail at half-time in 47% of matches and lead in only 27%
- Tulsa concede 0.3 first-half goals per game
- Brooklyn's last 5 half-time results: L, D, L, W, D
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC TulsaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The 19-point table gap and Tulsa's functional away form against a Brooklyn side that has lost 6 of 11 home games justify backing the visitors on the handicap.
- Tulsa +6 goal difference vs Brooklyn -20 over 23 league games
- Tulsa away 4W-3D-4L vs Brooklyn home 3W-2D-6L
- Tulsa rank 4th (36 pts) vs Brooklyn 12th (17 pts)
- H2H: Tulsa won the most recent meeting 2-1
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostFC Tulsa -0.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides draw at a moderate rate and Tulsa's road record includes three stalemates, making the draw a live but secondary possibility behind the away win.
- Tulsa have drawn 6 of 23 league games (26%)
- Brooklyn have drawn 5 of 23 (22%)
- Tulsa away: 3 draws in 11 road games
- Brooklyn home: 2 draws in 11 home games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance26%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's low-scoring profile (1.1 goals per game) and tendency to grind out tight results points to a controlled game, though Brooklyn's leaky defence keeps this only medium confidence.
- Tulsa average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded across last 15 matches
- Brooklyn average 1.3 scored but 2.0 conceded across last 15 matches
- Tulsa's last 5: 1-2, 0-0, 1-0, 5-1, 0-1 — three of five under 2.5
- Brooklyn's last 5: 0-4, 1-1, 0-2, 4-1, 0-1 — three of five under 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's defensive solidity plus Brooklyn's scoring droughts and the loss of their recalled top attacker make a clean sheet for at least one side more likely than both scoring.
- Tulsa have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 15 matches
- Tulsa conceded just 21 goals in 23 league games (0.91 per game)
- Brooklyn failed to score in 8 of their last 15 matches
- Brooklyn's attack loses its leading contributor (6 goals, 4 assists in 16 league games)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's strong defensive record and Brooklyn's frequent blanks, worsened by the recall of their top scorer, give the away clean sheet a realistic chance.
- Tulsa have conceded 21 goals in 23 league games, 0.91 per game
- Tulsa kept clean sheets in 6 of last 15 matches
- Brooklyn scored 0 goals in 8 of their last 15 matches
- Brooklyn's leading scorer Markus Anderson (6 goals) was recalled on September 2
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBrooklyn FC not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides average under one first-half goal each, and Tulsa's cautious away approach plus Brooklyn's slow starts point to a low-scoring opening period.
- Tulsa average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded
- Brooklyn average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
- Tulsa's last 5 first halves: 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0
- Brooklyn's last 5 first halves: 0-3, 0-0, 0-1, 3-0, 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's defensive collapse late in games and the tendency for both sides to score more after the break make the second-half over a marginal lean.
- Brooklyn concede 2.0 goals per game overall, with a large share after the break
- Brooklyn's last 5 second halves produced 1, 1, 1, 2, 1 goals
- Tulsa's last 5 second halves produced 2, 0, 0, 4, 1 goals
- Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals, implying more second-half output
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's away scoring rate of 1.36 goals per game combined with Brooklyn's poor defensive record makes the visitors scoring twice a reasonable proposition.
- Tulsa score 15 goals in 11 away games (1.36 per game)
- Tulsa scored 5 in one recent away match and 2 in another
- Brooklyn concede 2.0 goals per game across last 15 matches
- Brooklyn's home defence has conceded 11 in 11, but overall form is leaky
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Tulsa over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's modest home scoring rate, frequent blanks and the loss of their top attacker against a solid Tulsa defence point to a low home goal total.
- Brooklyn score 11 goals in 11 home games (1.0 per game)
- Brooklyn failed to score in 8 of their last 15 matches
- Tulsa concede only 0.91 goals per game in the league
- Brooklyn's leading scorer (6 goals) was recalled on September 2
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBrooklyn FC under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Tulsa win-to-nil is plausible given their defensive record and Brooklyn's scoring problems, but the low base rate for exact scorelines keeps confidence low.
- Tulsa kept clean sheets in 6 of last 15 matches
- Tulsa conceded 21 in 23 league games (0.91 per game)
- Brooklyn scored 0 in 8 of last 15 matches
- Brooklyn's attack weakened by the recall of their leading contributor
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance26%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 91% vs our 52% estimate — the price already reflects the directional read with no cushion, and the edge rule caps matchWinner edges at 15pts.

Prediction history

FC Tulsa has been only moderately reliable when projected to win, with 2 of 5 recent winner projections fulfilled

FC Tulsa fulfilled 2 of 5 recent matchWinner projections, a 40% rate. The missed results were 2 draws and 1 loss, with no subject wins among the misses. The current 52% probability sits above the historical range of 40% to 45%, and all 5 recent samples came at home, while the current match is away with no away sample.

Recent evidence for FC Tulsa5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship