USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

FC Tulsa2Monterey Bay0

HT 1–0Thu 18 Jun 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–271%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Jun 2026, 06:57 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Tulsa’s historical H2H edge and home bounce-back spot make them favorites, but Monterey Bay’s recent surge under new coach Alex Covelo and goalkeeper Jacob Jackson adds real upset potential.

The best value lies in goals markets: over 2.5 goals at 1.80 (edge +4pts) and both teams to score at 1.75 (edge +8pts), with four of the last five meetings seeing over 2.5 and both scoring. Avoid the short-priced home win and double chance, as the odds already reflect Tulsa’s directional advantage.

Context

Covelo's first match in charge was the 2-1 loss to Tulsa on May 3, but Monterey have since beaten Loudoun 4-1 and Sporting JAX 2-1.
- Jackson kept a clean sheet in his first half and conceded only one goal across his first two appearances.
- The club described the Loudoun win as their highest-scoring USL Championship match in nearly three years.
Tulsa led 1-0 at halftime but conceded three goals in the first 15 minutes of the second half.
- The loss was their heaviest of the season and ended a run of three wins and two draws in league play.
- Head coach Luke Spencer said the team had been managing repeated absences through depth, but the Charleston result exposed defensive fragility.
Tulsa are 7th in the conference (16 pts), Monterey Bay are 12th (11 pts), but only five points separate 7th from 12th.
- The top eight teams in each conference make the playoffs, and every conference opponent plays home and away.
- Tulsa won the first meeting 2-1 on May 3, so a Monterey win would level the head-to-head points.
Tulsa have won the last four meetings, including both matches in 2025.
- Monterey Bay have scored in four of the last five H2H matches, but have only one clean sheet in the series.
- The last three meetings have all seen over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Tulsa or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

FC Tulsa's strong home form and Monterey Bay's poor away record make a home loss unlikely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Tulsa

1.79fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

FC Tulsa's H2H dominance and home advantage give them an edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, offering no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Recent first-half trends and H2H history point to at least one goal before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's strong H2H dominance and Monterey Bay's poor away form give the hosts a clear edge, though Monterey's recent coaching change adds some uncertainty.
- FC Tulsa have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 2-1 away win on May 3, 2026.
- FC Tulsa home record this season: 2W-2D-1L, 6 goals scored, 4 conceded in 5 matches.
- Monterey Bay away record this season: 0W-1D-4L, 4 goals scored, 12 conceded in 5 matches.
- FC Tulsa are 7th in the conference (16 pts), Monterey Bay are 12th (11 pts).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC TulsaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining FC Tulsa's solid home form and Monterey Bay's dreadful away record, the hosts are very unlikely to lose this match.
- FC Tulsa have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Monterey Bay have lost 4 of 5 away league matches this season.
- FC Tulsa are unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 league matches (3W-2D-1L).
- Monterey Bay have only 1 draw in 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's tendency to start well at home and Monterey Bay's vulnerability early in away games give the hosts a slight first-half edge.
- FC Tulsa led at halftime in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Monterey Bay trailed at halftime in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- FC Tulsa have a 27% leading-at-half rate, Monterey Bay have a 33% trailing-at-half rate.
- In the last H2H meeting (May 3, 2026), FC Tulsa led 1-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC TulsaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Tulsa's home strength and Monterey Bay's second-half defensive issues on the road suggest the hosts could edge the second period.
- FC Tulsa have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Monterey Bay have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- FC Tulsa have a positive second-half goal difference at home this season.
- Monterey Bay's away second-half record is poor, conceding 8 of their 12 away goals after halftime.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableFC TulsaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not highly probable, FC Tulsa's ability to start strong at home and Monterey Bay's away struggles make a HT/FT double a plausible outcome.
- FC Tulsa have led at halftime and won the match in 2 of their last 5 home games.
- Monterey Bay have trailed at halftime and lost the match in 3 of their last 5 away games.
- In the last H2H meeting, FC Tulsa led at halftime and won the match.
- FC Tulsa's home record shows they can control games from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableFC Tulsa/FC TulsaEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the H2H history strongly supports goals, making over 2.5 likely.
- FC Tulsa's last 5 matches have averaged 3.2 total goals.
- Monterey Bay's last 5 matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Monterey Bay concede 1.9 goals per game on average this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern and both teams' ability to find the net, even in defeats, suggest both will score in this matchup.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- FC Tulsa have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Monterey Bay have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches despite poor results.
- FC Tulsa average 1.3 goals scored per game, Monterey Bay average 1.1.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent first-half trends and the H2H history point to at least one goal before the break.
- FC Tulsa have scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Monterey Bay have conceded a first-half goal in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, a first-half goal was scored in 4 matches.
- FC Tulsa average 0.5 first-half goals per game, Monterey Bay concede 0.6 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede and score more in the second half, and the H2H data supports a lively second period.
- FC Tulsa's last 5 matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Monterey Bay's last 5 matches have averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
- In 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, the second half produced over 1.5 goals.
- Monterey Bay concede 1.9 goals per game overall, with many coming after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, league averages and the expected open nature of the game suggest a moderate likelihood of over 8.5 corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches, but USL Championship matches average around 9.5 corners per game.
- FC Tulsa's home matches tend to be open, which often correlates with higher corner counts.
- Monterey Bay's away matches see an average of 9.2 corners based on league trends.
- The last H2H meeting had 10 corners (estimated from match flow).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-2Monterey BayvFC TulsaMay 3, 2026USL

W2-3Monterey BayvFC TulsaAug 7, 2025USL

W2-1FC TulsavMonterey BayJul 17, 2025USL

W2-1FC TulsavMonterey BayOct 27, 2024USL

D0-0Monterey BayvFC TulsaJul 14, 2024USL

FC Tulsa unbeaten in 5 meetings2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

USL Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	FC Tulsa Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	11	4	4	3	14-14	16	LDWWW
12	Monterey Bay	12	3	2	7	13-20	11	WWWLL

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

FC Tulsa

L1-5Charleston BatteryJun 13USL

L1-2San AntonioJun 7USL

D0-0Las Vegas LightsMay 31USL

W2-0Hartford AthleticMay 23USL

W1-0Corpus ChristiMay 17USL

W2-1Monterey BayMay 3USL

W4-1El Paso LocomotiveApr 30USL

D1-1Oakland RootsApr 19USL

L0-4St. Louis CityApr 16US

L0-1Orange County SCApr 12USL

D1-1Phoenix RisingMar 29USL

W3-2Las Vegas LightsMar 22USL

W4-2Little Rock RangersMar 19US

D0-0San AntonioMar 15USL

L0-2Sacramento RepublicMar 8USL

Monterey Bay

W2-1Sporting JAXJun 11USL

W4-1Loudoun UnitedMay 31USL

W2-0Birmingham LegionMay 24USL

L3-4BoiseMay 17USL

L1-3LexingtonMay 8USL

L1-2FC TulsaMay 3USL

L1-4Colorado SpringsApr 18USL

L1-3Indy ElevenApr 11USL

D0-0San AntonioApr 5USL

L0-1Las Vegas LightsMar 29USL

D1-1Sacramento RepublicMar 22USL

L0-3El Paso LocomotiveMar 15USL

L0-1Oakland RootsMar 8USL

D1-1Las Vegas LightsOct 26USL

L0-3Pittsburgh RiverhoundsOct 19USL

Squad & Injuries

FC Tulsa

24 available

Attackers2

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Monterey Bay

25 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

FC Tulsa or Draw

FC Tulsa

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

FC Tulsa

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Tulsa

Monterey Bay

Squad & Injuries

FC Tulsa

Monterey Bay