El Paso Locomotive1FC Tulsa1

HT 1–1Sat 26 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 06:51 · Europe/Bucharest

El Paso's club-record eight-match winning run meets a Tulsa side that has already beaten them twice in 2026, and El Paso must manage it without five internationals including 16-goal Rubio Rubín.

El Paso remain the likelier winners at home. The 1.80 on an El Paso win asks more than the case supports; 1.20 on both teams not to score in the first half is the one quote that holds up.

Context

Rubín has 16 goals, more than any other player in the USL Championship, and was named to the Week 29 Team of the Week after scoring twice in the 3-1 win at Phoenix Rising. Guatemala's Nations League opener in Kingston is scheduled for the same evening, and he has already joined the squad in camp, so he cannot be part of El Paso's answer to Tulsa. The absence takes the focal point out of an attack that has driven the club's record winning run. El Paso have not said who replaces him, so the practical size of the drop-off is unverified.
- El Paso Locomotive confirmed on 16 September that forward Rubio Rubín had been called up by Guatemala for the Concacaf Nations League window.
- Nuestro Diario reported on 21 September that Rubín had joined Guatemala's training camp in Miami ahead of the 25 September Nations League match in Kingston.
- R. Rubín started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 06:50 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the club's own confirmation that five squad members left for national teams, and the fixture sits directly inside the window, so El Paso cannot pick from a full group for the visit of Tulsa. The absences reach every outfield unit, which makes this a wider problem than a single missing starter: cover has to come from squad players who have had fewer minutes during the eight-match winning run. The club has published no detail on replacements or a probable lineup, so the practical effect may be smaller than the raw count suggests.
- El Paso Locomotive announced on 16 September that five players had received international call-ups for the Concacaf Nations League and Africa Cup of Nations window.
- The club listed Rubio Rubín, Carl Sainté, Nicolás Cardona, Noah Dollenmayer and Jimmy Farkarlun, representing Guatemala, Haiti, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Liberia.
- A league call-up round-up on 23 September reported that El Paso's five call-ups are the most of any USL Championship club in a window covering 47 players from 27 nations.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 06:50 · Europe/Bucharest
Ordóñez is a Guatemala-eligible forward who stayed with Tulsa rather than joining the squad that travelled to Kingston, and he came off the bench in the 2-2 draw at Brooklyn. The contrast matters because the same international window strips El Paso of five players, including the league's leading scorer. The reporting carries a caveat: the injury reason attached to his omission was contradicted by that Brooklyn appearance, and Guatemala's coach has since addressed the decision publicly. Tulsa have said nothing about his role in El Paso.
- Guatemala assistant coach Salvador Reyes confirmed that Tulsa forward Arquímides Ordóñez asked not to be called up for the Nations League window.
- Ordóñez played 21 minutes for FC Tulsa in the 2-2 draw at Brooklyn on 19 September.
- A. Ordoñez started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- L. Dorsey started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Ordoñez did not start.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 06:50 · Europe/Bucharest
Eight successive wins is a club record for El Paso and has carried them to the top of the Western Conference with the season entering its closing weeks. Tulsa are the side asked to end a run that now stretches back more than six weeks, so this is the clearest form signal attached to the fixture. The limit of that signal is timing: the run was built before the current international window, so it says nothing about how El Paso cope with the five absentees.
- El Paso Locomotive beat Phoenix Rising 3-1 on 19 September for a club-record eighth successive win.
- The USL Championship published a feature on 21 September describing the Locomotive as having entered rare air with the eight-game winning streak.
- TV Azteca Chihuahua reported on 22 September that El Paso remain leaders of the Western Conference.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 06:50 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

El Paso Locomotive or Draw

1.25fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 80%

−6.0ppshort

El Paso are top of the conference at home and have won eight straight, while Tulsa concede heavily on the road. Both sides keep games tight, and Tulsa have taken a point in a third of their away matches.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Both teams score before the break at a steady rate, so at least one first-half goal is the likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
El Paso are top of the conference at home and have won eight straight, while Tulsa concede heavily on the road.
- El Paso home split: 5W-1D-1L in 7 games, 1.57 goals for and 0.71 against per game.
- Tulsa away split: 2W-2D-4L in 8 games, 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
- El Paso are missing five internationals, including league top scorer Rubio Rubin (16 goals).
- Tulsa won both 2026 head-to-heads, 4-1 in El Paso and 1-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede little before the break, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- El Paso home first-half goals against average is 0.14.
- Tulsa overall first-half goals against average is 0.33.
- Tulsa away first-half goals against average is 0.63.
- El Paso home first-half goals for average is 0.86.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa concede most of their away goals after the break, and El Paso finish home games relatively strongly.
- El Paso home second-half goals for average is 0.71.
- Tulsa away second-half goals against average is 1.13.
- Tulsa overall second-half goals against average is 0.80.
- El Paso recent matches include 10 goals across six games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostEl Paso LocomotiveEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
El Paso are top of the conference at home and have won eight straight, while Tulsa concede heavily on the road. Both sides keep games tight, and Tulsa have taken a point in a third of their away matches.
- El Paso home split: 5W-1D-1L in 7 games, 1.57 goals for and 0.71 against per game.
- Tulsa away split: 2W-2D-4L in 8 games, 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
- El Paso have drawn 1 of 7 home games in the tracked window.
- Tulsa have drawn 4 of 12 away league matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEl Paso Locomotive or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso start strongly at home and concede very little before the break. Both teams concede little before the break, making a level first half the single most likely outcome.
- El Paso home first-half goals for average is 0.86, against 0.14.
- Tulsa away first-half goals for average is 0.88, against 0.63.
- El Paso home first-half goals against average is 0.14.
- Tulsa overall first-half goals against average is 0.33.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonEl Paso Locomotive or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso's home matches have been low-scoring and their attack is missing its main finisher.
- El Paso home goals against average is 0.71 per game with 3 clean sheets in 7.
- El Paso recent six matches: 6 scored, 4 conceded.
- Tulsa recent six matches: 4 scored, 4 conceded.
- El Paso's top scorer and four other internationals are unavailable.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso's home defence has been solid enough to suggest one side can be shut out.
- El Paso home clean sheets: 3 in 7 games.
- El Paso overall clean sheets: 5 in 15 games.
- Tulsa away scoring average is 1.38 per game.
- El Paso home goals against average is 0.71 per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso's scoring at home has been modest and their main finisher is out of the side.
- El Paso home goals for average is 1.57 per game.
- El Paso's last four matches produced 10 goals across both teams.
- Tulsa away goals against average is 1.75 per game.
- Rubio Rubin, who has 16 league goals, is unavailable for El Paso.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonEl Paso Locomotive under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa rarely score more than once on the road and El Paso's home defence is strong.
- Tulsa away goals for average is 1.38 per game.
- El Paso home goals against average is 0.71 per game.
- El Paso home clean sheets: 3 in 7 games.
- Tulsa recent six matches produced 4 goals.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Tulsa under 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa usually find at least one goal on their travels, and El Paso's defence is depleted.
- El Paso conceded in 4 of 7 home games.
- Tulsa scored in 6 of 8 away games.
- El Paso home goals against average is 0.71 per game.
- El Paso's five international absences include defenders.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Tulsa to scoreEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
El Paso have scored in nearly every home game while Tulsa concede regularly away.
- El Paso scored in 6 of 7 home games.
- El Paso home goals for average is 1.57 per game.
- Tulsa away clean sheets: 2 in 8 games.
- Tulsa away goals against average is 1.75 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEl Paso Locomotive to scoreEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even when El Paso win at home, Tulsa usually find a goal, so a clean-sheet win is the minority case.
- Tulsa scored in 6 of 8 away games.
- El Paso conceded in 4 of 7 home games.
- El Paso home wins: 5 in 7.
- Tulsa away goals for average is 1.38 per game.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams score before the break at a steady rate, so at least one first-half goal is the likely outcome.
- El Paso home first-half total average is 1.00 goal per game.
- Tulsa away first-half total average is 1.50 goals per game.
- El Paso overall first-half goals for average is 0.87.
- Tulsa overall first-half goals for average is 0.73.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
The first half is far more likely to be one-sided or scoreless than to feature goals at both ends.
- El Paso home first-half goals against average is 0.14.
- El Paso conceded only one first-half goal at home in 7 games.
- Tulsa away first-half goals against average is 0.63.
- El Paso home first-half goals for average is 0.86.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates for both teams are low enough to keep the total under two goals.
- El Paso overall second-half goals for average is 0.60.
- Tulsa overall second-half goals for average is 0.40.
- El Paso home second-half goals against average is 0.57.
- El Paso recent matches: 6 conceded in total across six games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%