Orange County1FC Tulsa5

HT 0–2Sun 23 Aug 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Aug 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Orange County are favorites but under pressure after two straight home losses, while FC Tulsa need points to stay above the playoff line.

The best value is Orange County or Draw at 1.48 (72% model probability vs 68% implied), backed by their unbeaten H2H run and solid home form. Avoid the straight home win and Asian Handicap -1, as the draw is live and Tulsa’s resilience makes a comfortable OCSC victory unlikely.

Context

Lost 2-3 to Louisville City on 16 August.
- Lost 0-3 to Tampa Bay Rowdies on 9 August.
- Both defeats came at home in the USL Championship.
Tulsa are 6th in the West with 29 points from 19 matches.
- The top eight teams in each conference make the playoffs.
- Orange County's preview notes Tulsa are fighting to remain above the line.
Orange County won 1-0 at Tulsa in April 2026.
- They have 4 wins and 1 draw in the last five H2H matches.
- Tulsa controlled possession in April but failed to score.
Orange County's preview says Tulsa want possession.
- OCSC plan to attack quickly in transition.
- Tulsa's patience may limit Orange County's counter opportunities.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.36fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in the first half in the majority of recent matches, and Orange County's home matches average 0.7 first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Orange County's superior league position, strong recent H2H dominance, and home advantage give them the edge, though their recent form dip and Tulsa's playoff motivation keep confidence at medium.
- Orange County are 1st in the West with 34 points from 20 matches, while FC Tulsa are 6th with 29 points from 19.
- Orange County have won 4 of their last 5 home matches against FC Tulsa, including a 1-0 win in April 2026.
- Orange County's home record this season is 4-2-3 (W-D-L), scoring 11 and conceding 10 in 9 matches.
- FC Tulsa's away record is 3-2-3, scoring 9 and conceding 11 in 8 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOrange CountyEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Orange County's strong home form and their historical dominance over Tulsa makes a home win or draw highly likely, supported by Tulsa's mediocre away record.
- Orange County are unbeaten in their last 5 meetings with FC Tulsa (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Orange County have lost only 3 of 9 home matches this season.
- FC Tulsa have won only 3 of 8 away matches this season.
- Orange County's home form includes wins over El Paso and Oakland Roots, and draws against strong sides.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostOrange County or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Orange County's home advantage, FC Tulsa's strong first-half record (leading 40% of the time) makes this a close call, with Orange County only slightly favored due to home field.
- Orange County led at half-time in 20% of their last 15 matches.
- FC Tulsa led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Orange County have scored first in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
- FC Tulsa have trailed at half-time in only 13% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostOrange CountyEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Orange County winning both halves is unlikely given their inconsistent first-half performances and Tulsa's ability to stay competitive, making this a low-probability outcome.
- Orange County have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Tulsa have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Orange County's home record shows they often need a second-half push to secure wins.
- FC Tulsa have shown resilience, coming from behind to draw or win in several matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostOrange County/Orange CountyEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Orange County's high-scoring recent matches, driven by their leaky defense and potent attack, make over 2.5 goals likely, though Tulsa's low-scoring trend tempers the confidence.
- Orange County's last 15 matches average 3.6 total goals per game (1.7 scored, 1.9 conceded).
- FC Tulsa's last 15 matches average 1.9 total goals per game (0.9 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Orange County have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- FC Tulsa have seen over 2.5 goals in only 3 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, and with Orange County's defensive vulnerabilities and Tulsa's need for points, both teams scoring is a strong possibility.
- Orange County have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Orange County have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Tulsa have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Tulsa have conceded in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score in the first half, with Orange County particularly strong early, making over 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Orange County average 0.7 first-half goals per match in their last 15.
- Orange County have scored in the first half in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Tulsa average 0.5 first-half goals per match in their last 15.
- FC Tulsa have scored in the first half in 8 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Orange County's high-scoring second halves, combined with their tendency to concede late, suggest over 1.5 second-half goals is likely.
- Orange County's matches average 1.9 second-half goals per game based on recent form.
- Orange County have scored in the second half in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- FC Tulsa have scored in the second half in 7 of their last 15 matches.
- Orange County's defensive lapses often occur late, with 1.9 goals conceded per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without concrete corner data, this prediction is speculative; the over is chosen based on the assumption of an open game, but confidence is low due to missing evidence.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Orange County's attacking style typically generates corners, but exact numbers are missing.
- FC Tulsa's possession-based approach may limit corner opportunities for both sides.
- No reliable corner statistics are provided in the input data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high-stakes nature of the match, a slightly higher card count is plausible, but the lack of disciplinary data makes this a low-confidence prediction.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- The match has high stakes with playoff implications, which could increase intensity.
- No disciplinary statistics are provided in the input data.
- Both teams are likely to be competitive, but exact card counts are unknown.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance40%