Falkenbergs4Landskrona BoIS3

HT 4–1Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–380%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 15–13On targetOn target 7–6CornersCorners 4–12

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Second hosts fifth with both still in the promotion chase, and Falkenberg's home record of seven wins and two defeats in 13 league games gives them a slight edge.

Landskrona have won seven away and scored three or more in four of their last six, so this looks close and open. Falkenberg at 2.5, Over 2.5 at 1.73, a first-half goal at 1.25 and either team to win at 1.3 all ask for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Landskrona are in the promotion race with five rounds left and have publicly framed the closing stretch as a series of finals, starting with the trip to Falkenberg. That matters because a side chasing automatic promotion is likely to keep its strongest available XI and usual intensity rather than treat the game as a rotation opportunity. The framing comes from the club's own social channels and a Skånesport match review, so it expresses intent and mood rather than a confirmed selection decision.
- Landskrona BoIS posted 'Final 1 av 5' after their 3-2 win over Sandvikens IF on 10 October and urged supporters to travel to Falkenberg.
- The club's 12 October match-week post said 'jakten på toppen fortsätter' and 'Vi ses väl i Falkenberg på lördag?'.
- Skånesport wrote on 10 October that BoIS are pacing 'allsvenskt uppflyttningstempo' (Allsvenskan promotion tempo).
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 04:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Andersson scored twice in Falkenberg's 2-1 win at Värnamo on 11 October, a brace logged as his 16th and 17th Superettan goals of the season. A striker in that scoring rhythm gives the home side a direct route to goal against a Landskrona team pushing for promotion. The tally comes from a Falkenberg supporter's live goal updates and the club confirmed the result but not the scorer list, so the figure is well indicated but not officially published.
- Albin Andersson scored in each half of Falkenberg's 2-1 win at IFK Värnamo on 11 October 2026.
- Both goals were logged as his 16th and 17th of the 2026 Superettan season.
- Falkenbergs FF confirmed the 2-1 away win at Värnamo on 11 October.
- Albin Andersson started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 04:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Falkenberg go into the final five rounds in the promotion mix and their head coach Christoffer Andersson has publicly told the squad to enjoy the position rather than feel pressure. For this fixture that suggests a settled, front-foot home approach against a direct rival instead of a cautious setup. The quotes were given before the Värnamo trip on 11 October, so they describe the general run-in mood rather than a specific plan for Landskrona.
- Falkenbergs FF published pre-match comments from Christoffer Andersson on 10 October: 'Vi ska gå ut och njuta av att vara i läget vi är i.'
- SvenskaFans reported on 10 October that Falkenberg 'går in i toppstriden med fem matcher kvar'.
- Falkenberg were on 45 points before beating IFK Värnamo 2-1 on 11 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 04:02 · Europe/Bucharest
Capotondi is Landskrona's main creative reference, and the same week he was shortlisted for September's league award he produced a goal and an assist in the 3-2 win over Sandviken. A promotion chaser with an in-form playmaker is likely to keep funneling possession through him, which shapes what Falkenberg must defend. The shortlist is a voting slate rather than a won prize, so it signals recent form more than a decisive edge.
- Landskrona BoIS confirmed on 2 October that Constantino Capotondi was nominated for Superettan Player of the Month for September.
- The club said on 12 October that Capotondi scored a goal and provided an assist in the 3-2 win over Sandvikens IF on 10 October.
- Landskrona described him as 'vår bolltrollare' (our ball wizard) in its nomination post.
- C. Capotondi started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 04:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Both teams score before half-time often enough for at least one first-half goal to be likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Falkenbergs or Landskrona BoIS

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Falkenberg's higher points total and strong home record give them a narrow edge over a good travelling side. Landskrona's strong away record and heavy recent scoring make an away win nearly as likely as a home one.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.8%

−0.8ppshort

Both attacks score regularly and recent meetings have been high-scoring, pointing to three goals or more.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Falkenbergs

2.50fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 40%

−2.0ppshort

Falkenberg's higher points total and strong home record give them a narrow edge over a good travelling side.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Falkenberg's higher points total and strong home record give them a narrow edge over a good travelling side.
- Falkenberg are 2nd on 48 points with 14 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in 26 games
- Their home league record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses
- Landskrona are 5th on 43 points and have won 7 of 13 away games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFalkenbergsEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score fewer than one first-half goal on average, so the opening period is often level.
- Falkenberg average 0.77 first-half goals
- Landskrona average 0.86 first-half goals
- Neither side averages a goal before half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Similar second-half scoring and solid defending make a level final period the most likely single result.
- Falkenberg average 1.08 second-half goals
- Landskrona average 1.14 second-half goals
- Both concede fewer than 0.6 second-half goals per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Falkenberg's higher points total and strong home record give them a narrow edge over a good travelling side. Landskrona's strong away record and heavy recent scoring make an away win nearly as likely as a home one.
- Falkenberg are 2nd on 48 points with 14 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in 26 games
- Their home league record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses
- Landskrona have won 7 of 13 league games away from home
- They have scored 3 or more in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFalkenbergs or Landskrona BoISEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Opening periods are usually tight, but Falkenberg's home edge gives them the best single chance. Both teams score fewer than one first-half goal on average, so the opening period is often level.
- Falkenberg average 0.77 first-half goals and 0.85 conceded
- Landskrona concede 0.57 first-half goals overall
- Falkenberg average 0.77 first-half goals
- Landskrona average 0.86 first-half goals
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFalkenbergs or DrawEstimated chance71%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both attacks score regularly and recent meetings have been high-scoring, pointing to three goals or more.
- Falkenberg average 1.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded in 13 games
- Landskrona average 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded in 14 games
- Four of the last five meetings produced three or more goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both sides find the net in the large majority of their games, so both scoring is the more likely outcome.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Falkenberg's 13 league games
- Both teams scored in 9 of Landskrona's 14 league games
- Landskrona scored in all six of their most recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A single Falkenberg goal or none is a realistic outcome against a decent away defence.
- Falkenberg's home average is 1.83 goals, close to the line
- Landskrona concede 1.29 per away game
- Two of Falkenberg's last six matches produced one goal or none
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFalkenbergs under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona find the net in most games, so they are likely to score at Falkenberg too.
- Landskrona scored in 12 of 14 league games
- Landskrona scored in all of their last six matches
- Falkenberg's home defence concedes 1.0 per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLandskrona BoIS to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Falkenberg's consistent scoring makes it likely they find the net at home.
- Falkenberg scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches
- They average 1.83 goals at home
- Landskrona conceded in 11 of 14 league games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFalkenbergs to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams score before half-time often enough for at least one first-half goal to be likely.
- Falkenberg average 0.77 first-half goals and 0.85 conceded
- Landskrona average 0.86 first-half goals and scored 1.67 per game in their last six
- Falkenberg's home first halves average 0.83 scored and 0.5 conceded
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score at a good rate after the break, so two or more second-half goals is a slight favourite.
- Falkenberg average 1.08 scored and 0.38 conceded after half-time
- Landskrona average 1.14 scored and 0.57 conceded after half-time
- Landskrona's away second halves average 1.14 scored
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent games tend to produce around ten corners, putting the over marginally ahead.
- Falkenberg average 4.14 corners and concede 5.71
- Landskrona average 5.29 corners and concede 4.71
- Recent Falkenberg and Landskrona matches each averaged around ten corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target rates point to roughly ten across the match.
- Falkenberg average 4.29 shots on target and concede 3.43
- Landskrona average 5.57 and concede 4.0
- At home Falkenberg average 5.33 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's card-heavy recent games lift the total above two and a half.
- Falkenberg average 0.86 yellow cards and their opponents 1.0
- Landskrona average 2.0 yellow cards and their opponents 1.71
- Landskrona's recent matches averaged more than three cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%