Nordic United1Landskrona BoIS4

HT 0–2Sat 19 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 12–15On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 20:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Landskrona BoIS, fresh from a 4–0 win and chasing promotion, offer value in the away win market at odds around 2.90 (model edge +8pts) and in the double chance at 1.62 (+6pts).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score, and first-half Over 0.5, as their odds imply probabilities well above the model's estimates.

Context

Landskrona BoIS are 5th in Superettan with 37 points, while Nordic United are 8th with 36 points.
In their only recent meeting, Landskrona BoIS won 2-0 at home on 16 June 2026. That result shows they can beat Nordic United, but it was three months ago and at a different venue, so it may not fully predict this match.
- Landskrona BoIS beat Nordic United 2-0 at home on 16 June 2026 in Superettan.
Landskrona BoIS travel to Nordic United four days after their 4-0 home win over GIF Sundsvall on 15 September.
The short recovery window may lead to managed minutes or rotation, especially for players who featured heavily in that match. The confirmed schedule leaves limited time for full recovery, but the exact lineup changes remain uncertain.
- Landskrona BoIS' official account said the team had beaten Sundsvall and was immediately preparing for Saturday's away match at Nordic United.
- Local reporting recorded a 4–0 Landskrona win over GIF Sundsvall on 15 September.
- The local report said Landskrona's next fixture is the trip to Södertälje on Saturday.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:22 · Europe/BucharestBoIS dansade och logwww.landskronadirekt.com · 15 Sep 2026
Landskrona BoIS are 5th with 37 points, and Nordic United are 8th with 36 points.
Landskrona BoIS have won 6 of 12 away matches, while Nordic United have won 5 of 12 home matches. This suggests Landskrona BoIS may be slightly more effective away from home, but the difference is small and recent form can change quickly.
- Landskrona BoIS away record: 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 12 matches.
- Nordic United home record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses in 12 matches.
Landskrona BoIS sit fifth, four points from the promotion-playoff places with six rounds remaining.
The visitors have a concrete incentive to pursue three points, which may influence their tactical approach and willingness to push for a win. The linked analysis supports an away win, but the outcome is not guaranteed.
- Landskrona Direkt reported that the 4–0 win moved BoIS to fifth place.
- The report placed Landskrona four points behind a promotion-playoff position with six rounds remaining.
- The official Superettan schedule lists Nordic United versus Landskrona BoIS in round 25.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:22 · Europe/BucharestBoIS dansade och logwww.landskronadirekt.com · 15 Sep 2026Superettan round 16–26 schedulesuperettan.se · 27 May 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Nordic United's home matches average 3.58 total goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value exists.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong scoring records, but the odds are too short relative to our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The combined first-half goal expectation is 1.5, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's stronger away form and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, while Nordic United's leaky home defense (1.75 goals conceded per home game) supports an away win.
- Landskrona BoIS away record: 6W 2D 4L, 18 goals for, 13 against in 12 away matches
- Nordic United home record: 5W 4D 3L, 22 goals for, 21 against in 12 home matches
- H2H last meeting: Landskrona BoIS 2-0 Nordic United (June 2026)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLandskrona BoISEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's superior away record and promotion motivation make them unlikely to lose, while Nordic United's home draws (4) add safety to the double chance.
- Nordic United home losses: 3 in 12, Landskrona away losses: 4 in 12
- Landskrona BoIS overall points per game: 1.54 vs Nordic United 1.50
- H2H: Landskrona won the only recent meeting
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Landskrona BoISEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landskrona's stronger first-half record suggests they may lead, but Nordic United's home resilience and the draw frequency make a level first half plausible.
- Nordic United leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 27%
- Landskrona leading at half-time in 40% of matches, trailing in 33%
- H2H last meeting: Landskrona led 2-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Landskrona win is a plausible scenario given Landskrona's second-half strength and Nordic United's tendency to draw at home.
- Nordic United home draws: 4 in 12, Landskrona away draws: 2 in 12
- Landskrona away wins: 6 in 12
- H2H: Landskrona won the only meeting
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Landskrona BoISEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nordic United's home games are high-scoring and Landskrona's away attack is productive, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Nordic United home matches average 3.58 total goals (22 for, 21 against in 12)
- Landskrona away matches average 2.58 total goals (18 for, 13 against in 12)
- Combined recent form: Nordic United 1.3 goals for/against per game, Landskrona 1.6 for/0.9 against
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, and Nordic United's defensive vulnerability at home increases the chance of both scoring.
- Nordic United scored in 10 of 12 home matches (83%)
- Landskrona scored in 10 of 12 away matches (83%)
- Nordic United kept only 2 home clean sheets, Landskrona kept 4 away clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above one goal, making over 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Nordic United average 0.7 first-half goals, Landskrona average 0.8 first-half goals
- Nordic United first-half goals conceded: 0.5, Landskrona first-half goals conceded: 0.5
- Combined first-half goal expectation: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With high total goal expectations and both teams capable of late goals, over 1.5 second-half goals is a coin-flip but supported by Nordic United's high-scoring home trend.
- Nordic United average 1.3 total goals per game, Landskrona 1.6 total goals per game
- First-half goals account for roughly half of total goals for both teams
- Nordic United home matches average 3.58 total goals, suggesting second-half scoring
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and Nordic United's attacking style at home should push the total over 9.5.
- Nordic United average 7.6 corners per match, Landskrona average 5.8 corners per match
- Nordic United home matches average 7.6 corners for, opponent corners unknown but likely high
- Combined average corners: 13.4 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average exceeds 8.5, and both teams are expected to create chances in an open game.
- Nordic United average 4.8 shots on target per match, Landskrona average 5.8 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 10.6 per match
- Nordic United home matches likely see more shots on target due to attacking intent
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is above 3.5, and a competitive match with promotion stakes may increase card count.
- Nordic United average 2 yellow cards per match, Landskrona average 2.4 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.4 per match
- No red cards in recent matches for either team
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%