Real Salt Lake1San Jose Earthquakes1

HT 0–0Thu 15 Oct 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 22–16On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 17:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth-placed San Jose, unbeaten in seven, visit an eleventh-placed Real Salt Lake whose playoff margin is shrinking after one win in six.

San Jose to avoid defeat — the draw or an away win — at 1.91 carries the biggest edge, with San Jose to win at 3.5 and fewer than three goals at 2.63 offering something too. Real Salt Lake to win at 1.85 and over 2.5 goals at 1.45 ask more than the record supports.

Context

The absentees strip Pablo Mastroeni of established central-defensive options and a regular midfield presence, so Real Salt Lake will again field a patched back line; Luc de Fougerolles made his club debut in the 10 October loss at Philadelphia. RSL is in a playoff fight with little margin for another defensive reshuffle. The list mixes long-term injuries with at least one doubtful case, so the exact XI may not settle until matchday.
- Real Salt Lake is without Emeka Eneli, Diego Luna, Lukas Engel, Juan José Arias, Griffin Dillon and Justen Glad.
- The group includes central defenders Justen Glad, Juan José Arias and Lukas Engel plus midfielders Emeka Eneli and Diego Luna.
- Luc de Fougerolles made his Real Salt Lake debut in the 2-1 loss at Philadelphia on 10 October.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:11 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 13 Oct 2026
The absences remove several midfield regulars and a defender from a squad Bruce Arena has been rotating during a two-game week, cutting his options for rest and in-game changes. Tsakiris had been playing an advanced role, so his loss trims the creativity around the front line. The group covers different positions, so no single replacement solves the shortage. Tsakiris is the least certain absence because he appears on the match list but not in every injury feed.
- San Jose Earthquakes are without Niko Tsakiris, Jack Skahan, Jonathan González, Darius Johnson, Nonso Adimabua and DeJuan Jones.
- Tsakiris was also absent for San Jose's 1-1 draw at Colorado on 10 October.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:11 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match pagewww.fotmob.com · 13 Oct 2026
Luna is a United States international midfielder whose absence stretches beyond a single fixture, so it changes how Real Salt Lake builds its attack rather than just who fills one shirt. The injury also affects a transfer that had been discussed, with a Spanish club's interest deferred and a winter move now the likelier route. The recovery timeline around any procedure remained the open question when the diagnosis was first described. RSL has already been without him for several weeks.
- Diego Luna is expected to be sidelined for months by a knee injury and will likely undergo an arthroscopic procedure to determine its extent.
- Luna stayed at Real Salt Lake for the rest of 2026 despite summer interest from a Spanish club, with a European move more likely in the winter.
- D. Luna started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Arena's side is the form team in this fixture and can play for seeding rather than survival, which shapes how aggressively San Jose may approach a road game. He has been managing a newly crowded attack, with Timo Werner back from injury alongside Eduard Löwen. The unbeaten sequence includes four draws, so the run is steadier than it is dominant. That mix suggests San Jose may be content to control the game rather than chase it.
- San Jose is unbeaten in its last seven MLS matches and sits in the top four of the Western Conference.
- Arena has turned the Quakes around after a summer slide, with the club rebounding in October.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.50
The read
San Jose bring far better form and a strong away record into the match.
- San Jose are 7W-4D-3L away this season
- San Jose are unbeaten in seven and won three of their last six
- San Jose sit fourth, Real Salt Lake eleventh
- Real Salt Lake have one win in their last six
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low combined first-half scoring makes a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Real Salt Lake average 0.4 first-half goals
- San Jose average 0.93 first-half goals
- Real Salt Lake concede 0.67 first-half goals
- Both teams average under one first-half goal
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily in the second half, so a level half is likely.
- San Jose average 0.43 second-half goals
- Real Salt Lake average 0.93 second-half goals
- Both teams average under one second-half goal
- San Jose have scored twice after the break in their last six
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Real Salt Lake's strong home record and home advantage keep them competitive in Sandy. San Jose bring far better form and a strong away record into the match.
- RSL are 8W-2D-4L at home this season
- RSL have lost five of their last six matches
- San Jose are 7W-4D-3L away this season
- San Jose are unbeaten in seven and won three of their last six
BetBugs · Double ChancelostReal Salt Lake or San Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low combined first-half scoring makes a level first half the most likely outcome. San Jose's stronger first-half scoring gives them the edge before the break.
- Real Salt Lake average 0.4 first-half goals
- San Jose average 0.93 first-half goals
- San Jose scored three first-half goals at Portland
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or San Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance76%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede regularly and San Jose's recent matches have been high-scoring.
- RSL score 1.33 and concede 1.67 per game
- San Jose concede 1.86 per game overall
- Both teams scored in 10 of San Jose's 14 matches
- San Jose's last six matches produced 18 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose score regularly and Real Salt Lake rarely keep opponents out.
- Both teams scored in 10 of San Jose's 14 matches
- Both teams scored in five of San Jose's last six
- Real Salt Lake have conceded in 12 of 15
- San Jose have scored in five of their last six
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's regular scoring makes a Real Salt Lake clean sheet unlikely.
- San Jose scored in 10 of 14 matches
- San Jose scored in five of their last six
- Real Salt Lake have conceded in 12 of 15
- San Jose average 1.43 goals in away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSan Jose Earthquakes to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Real Salt Lake's home scoring output makes a San Jose clean sheet unlikely.
- Real Salt Lake average 2.0 goals in home matches
- Real Salt Lake scored in 11 of 15 matches
- San Jose kept only two clean sheets in 14
- San Jose concede 1.86 per game overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonReal Salt Lake to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rate makes at least one goal more likely than not.
- Real Salt Lake concede 0.67 first-half goals
- San Jose average 0.93 first-half goals
- San Jose scored three first-half goals against Portland
- Combined first-half rate is above one goal per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring rates point to fewer than two goals after the break.
- San Jose average 0.43 second-half goals
- San Jose average 0.29 goals in away second halves
- Real Salt Lake average 0.93 second-half goals
- Both teams average under one second-half goal
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches feature double-figure corner counts.
- Real Salt Lake average 4.3 corners and concede 6.1
- San Jose average 5.0 corners and concede 4.5
- Real Salt Lake's last six matches averaged over ten corners
- San Jose's 2-2 draw with LAFC produced 18 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined per-game shot numbers sit just under the line.
- Real Salt Lake's last six matches averaged under 25 shots
- San Jose average 12.5 shots per game
- Real Salt Lake average 11.7 shots per game
- San Jose's 1-0 win over Houston had 21 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 24.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's recent shot-on-target numbers push this line slightly above even.
- Real Salt Lake average 4.8 shots on target and concede 4.4
- San Jose average 4.9 and concede 5.4
- San Jose's last six matches averaged over ten on target
- San Jose's 1-1 draw at Colorado had 13 on target between the sides
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent card counts point to fewer than six cards.
- Real Salt Lake average 2.7 yellows and concede 2.3
- San Jose average 2.5 yellows and concede 1.7
- San Jose's last six matches averaged under five cards
- Neither side has a regular red-card record
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Real Salt Lake: 2/4 recent corners projections matched

2 of 4 comparable corners projections involving Real Salt Lake matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Real Salt Lake4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer