Inter Toronto1Supra Quebec2

HT 1–2Wed 7 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 17–17On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 23:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Inter Toronto's open home games meet a Supra side beaten 0-6 at Cavalry last time out.

The home side score plenty and never keep anyone out, so goals at both ends and Inter Toronto taking the points is the read. The one reviewed price with anything going for it is Inter Toronto to win at 2.4; Over 2.5 at 1.45, both teams to score at 1.48 and first-half Over 0.5 at 1.18 all ask for more than the record justifies.

Context

Inter Toronto's games have been defined by both teams finding the net rather than by control.
Fifteen matches without a clean sheet is the clearest single pattern behind this fixture: whatever Inter Toronto score, they have conceded in every game in the window, including all seven at home. That keeps Supra in the match even on their weaker days, and it is why a home win has to be weighed against Inter Toronto's six draws and six defeats in those 15 games.
- 15 competitive matches tracked from 4 July to 3 October 2026: 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats
- Scored in 13 of 15 matches, conceded in all 15, no clean sheets
- Averages of 1.73 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per match across the same 15 games
Inter Toronto's home games have been high-scoring and open at both ends.
The seven-match home split shows Inter Toronto scoring at 2.57 a game but also being out-shot by 18.86 to 12.29, with opponents taking 6.71 corners to their 3.29. A home side that scores heavily and still concedes that volume of chances invites Supra forward, which is the main reason an open game at both ends is the sensible reading of this fixture.
- 7 home matches tracked from 26 July to 3 October 2026: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- Both teams scored in all 7; 2.57 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per home match
- Opponents averaged 18.86 shots and 6.71 corners, Inter Toronto 12.29 shots and 3.29 corners (7 matches)
Supra's most recent result was their heaviest of the tracked window.
Cavalry's six goals came with Supra two down at the break and four more conceded after it, from 16 shots but only two on target. It is one match, and it followed a 2-0 away win at Atlético Ottawa on 20 September, so it is better read as a wide recent range than as proof of how Supra will defend here.
- 0-6 away defeat to Cavalry FC on 26 September 2026
- 0-2 at half-time, four goals conceded in the second half
- 16 shots to 20 and 2 shots on target to 8 in that match
Supra have one clearly capable away performance inside this window.
Supra kept a clean sheet in Ottawa by putting nine of their 19 shots on target while the hosts managed three, and both goals arrived in the second half. It is a single game, but it shows that the away side can take points when the match stays compact, which is the outcome Inter Toronto's habit of conceding would have to survive.
- 2-0 away win at Atlético Ottawa on 20 September 2026
- 0-0 at half-time, both goals scored in the second half
- 19 shots to 7 and 9 shots on target to 3, with 4 corners to 7

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 84.7%

−2.7ppshort

Recent first halves involving these two sides almost always contain at least one goal.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 69%

−2.0ppshort

Both teams concede often and Inter Toronto's home matches have produced about five goals a game.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

−5.6ppshort

Inter Toronto never kept a clean sheet in fifteen matches, and Supra score in most of their away games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Inter Toronto score heavily at home while Supra concede regularly on the road, which gives the home side the larger share of the win outcomes.
- Inter Toronto home: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats in 7 home matches, 2.57 goals scored per home game
- Supra away: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 2.2 goals conceded per away match
- Inter Toronto scored in 13 of 15 matches and kept no clean sheets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostInter TorontoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto's home first halves lean their way while Supra produce little before the break.
- Inter Toronto home first halves: 1.57 goals for, 1.0 against per match
- Supra first-half scoring: 0.6 per match overall, 0.7 away
- Supra scored in the first half in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostInter TorontoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto still shade the closing period at home even though their second-half record is weaker than their first.
- Inter Toronto home second halves: 1.0 goals for, 1.29 against per match
- Supra away second halves: 0.9 for, 1.0 against per match
- Inter Toronto overall second-half scoring is 0.67 per match, conceding 1.33
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostInter TorontoEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto score heavily at home while Supra concede regularly on the road, which gives the home side the larger share of the win outcomes. Supra score at a fair rate away from home and Inter Toronto concede in every match, so an away win stays live.
- Inter Toronto home: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats in 7 home matches, 2.57 goals scored per home game
- Supra away: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 2.2 goals conceded per away match
- Supra scored in 12 of 15 matches and average 1.6 goals per away match
- Inter Toronto conceded in all 15 matches, at 2.29 goals per home match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonInter Toronto or Supra QuebecEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto's home first halves lean their way while Supra produce little before the break. With Supra contributing little early, level first halves are a frequent outcome for both teams.
- Inter Toronto home first halves: 1.57 goals for, 1.0 against per match
- Supra first-half scoring: 0.6 per match overall, 0.7 away
- Supra average 0.6 first-half goals per match
- Inter Toronto average 1.07 first-half goals per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostInter Toronto or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams concede often and Inter Toronto's home matches have produced about five goals a game.
- Inter Toronto home matches average 4.86 goals in total (2.57 for, 2.29 against)
- Supra away matches average 3.8 goals in total
- All six of Inter Toronto's most recent matches finished above 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Inter Toronto never kept a clean sheet in fifteen matches, and Supra score in most of their away games.
- Both teams scored in all 7 of Inter Toronto's home matches
- Both teams scored in 13 of Inter Toronto's 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 7 of Supra's 10 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Recent first halves involving these two sides almost always contain at least one goal.
- Inter Toronto home first halves average 2.57 goals in total
- Supra away first halves average 1.9 goals in total
- Only one goalless first half across both teams' last twelve matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's weak first-half output makes it likely at least one team is held out before the break.
- Supra have scored 0.6 first-half goals per match across 15 games
- Inter Toronto home first halves: 1.57 goals for, 1.0 against
- Supra's first-half goals in their last six matches: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 1
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto's home matches and Supra's away matches both point to goals arriving after the break.
- Inter Toronto home matches average 2.29 second-half goals in total
- Supra away matches average 1.9 second-half goals in total
- Four of Inter Toronto's last six matches had two or more second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto have scored three in each of their last four home matches against a Supra side conceding more than two per away game.
- Inter Toronto average 2.57 goals per home match
- They scored three goals in each of their last four home matches
- Supra concede 2.2 goals per away match and shipped six at Cavalry
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostInter Toronto over 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto have not kept a clean sheet in any of their fifteen matches, and Supra find the net in most games.
- Inter Toronto have 0 clean sheets in 15 matches, including 7 at home
- Inter Toronto conceded in all 15 matches
- Supra failed to score in only 3 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSupra Quebec to scoreEstimated chance88%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto's home matches generate around ten corners, mostly through their opponents.
- Inter Toronto home matches: 3.29 own corners and 6.71 opponent corners
- Supra away matches: 4.83 own corners and 4.33 opponent corners
- Five of Inter Toronto's last six matches produced 8 corners or more
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Inter Toronto's home opponents get plenty on target and Supra take a fair number of shots, placing the combined count near the line.
- Inter Toronto home matches: 4.43 shots on target, opponents 6.57
- Supra away matches: 5.5 shots on target, opponents 3.67
- Inter Toronto's last six shots-on-target totals: 11, 8, 14, 14, 8, 15
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%