Supra Quebec5Pacific FC0

HT 1–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 22–4On targetOn target 10–0CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 08:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Supra Quebec have won both away meetings with Pacific FC this season yet have only one win in five home matches, while Pacific have drawn eight of 23 league games.

A close game with Supra just the likelier winner, and a draw would surprise nobody. Of the reviewed prices, only the draw at 3.8 offers anything; Supra at 1.73, Over 2.5 goals at 1.43 and both teams to score at 1.45 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Supra are unbeaten across three meetings with Pacific in 2026, but both wins came on Pacific's ground.
This fixture is at Supra's ground, which is where the one non-win in the series took place, and Supra have only three league wins at home all season. Pacific have taken a point from that trip and lost twice at home to the same opponent. The head-to-head therefore favours Supra, while the venue cuts the other way.
- 2026-04-11: Pacific FC 2-3 Supra du Quebec in the Canadian Premier League.
- 2026-06-06: Supra du Quebec 1-1 Pacific FC in the Canadian Premier League.
- 2026-08-01: Pacific FC 1-2 Supra du Quebec in the Canadian Premier League.
- Three 2026 meetings in total: two Supra wins and one draw.
It is Supra's heaviest defeat in the 15-match window and the most recent match on their record.
The scoreline is the latest available evidence on Supra rather than a settled pattern for the season: they have won three of eleven league games at home and have not lost to Pacific in 2026. Reading too much into one afternoon is the risk here, given the 2-0 win at Atlético Ottawa on 20 September. Even so, a 0-6 result eight days before this fixture is a data point the home side would rather not carry.
- 2026-09-26: Cavalry FC 6-0 Supra Quebec in the Canadian Premier League.
- Supra took 16 shots but only 2 on target; Cavalry had 8 on target from 20 shots.
- Supra received 5 yellow cards; Cavalry received 1.
Pacific sit bottom of the league, but their away games have been open at both ends.
Averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per away match explains why Pacific's road games have been eventful despite their league position. They also drew four of those nine away matches, so a point on the road has been a more common outcome for them than a win. Supra's home matches in their own tracked window averaged two goals in total, which is the argument against expecting a high-scoring fixture.
- Nine Pacific FC away matches tracked from 6 June to 27 September: 1 win, 4 draws, 4 losses.
- Seven goals scored and eight conceded across those nine away matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the 9; Pacific kept 1 clean sheet.
- Average 1.56 goals for and 2.22 goals against per away match.
It was Pacific's highest-scoring match of the window and their most recent result.
Seven goals in 45 minutes is an outlier, but Pacific have scored four in two of the six matches listed in their recent record. Across nine away games this window they have averaged 1.56 goals scored and 2.22 conceded, so games with action at both ends are the pattern rather than the exception. The counterweight is that Supra's home matches in their own tracked window averaged two goals in total.
- 2026-09-27: York United 3-4 Pacific FC in the Canadian Premier League — 4-3 at half-time, 0-0 in the second half.
- Pacific recorded 17 shots with 4 on target; York United had 13 shots with 4 on target.
- York United finished with 5 yellow cards and one red card.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69%

−3.0ppshort

Both sides have regularly scored and conceded, and all three meetings saw both teams score.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

−9.9ppshort

Pacific's away games have produced many goals and both teams concede regularly.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Supra has won both away meetings and is the higher-ranked side, but home form is weak.
- Supra Quebec have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 15 matches.
- Pacific FC have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 15.
- Head-to-head: Supra won 2 and drew 1 of the last 3 meetings.
- Supra's home record in the source window is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSupra QuebecEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves have often been tight, with Supra's home games especially low-scoring before the break.
- Supra home first-half total goals average 0.8.
- Pacific away first-half total goals average 1.67.
- Supra overall first-half goals for average 0.6.
- Pacific overall first-half goals for average 0.867.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pacific concedes heavily after the break, and Supra can take advantage late.
- Pacific away second-half goals against average 1.556.
- Pacific overall second-half goals against average 1.333.
- Supra home second-half goals for average 0.4.
- Supra overall second-half goals for average 0.733.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSupra QuebecEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves have often been tight, with Supra's home games especially low-scoring before the break. Pacific has a better first-half scoring rate than Supra and often starts strongly.
- Supra home first-half total goals average 0.8.
- Pacific away first-half total goals average 1.67.
- Pacific away first-half goals for average 1.0.
- Pacific overall first-half goals for average 0.867.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Pacific FCEstimated chance74%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Pacific's away games have produced many goals and both teams concede regularly.
- Supra home matches average 2.0 total goals.
- Pacific away matches average 3.78 total goals.
- Head-to-head totals were 3, 2 and 5 goals.
- Pacific's last 6 matches include totals of 7 and 6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both sides have regularly scored and conceded, and all three meetings saw both teams score.
- Supra both scored in 10 of 15 matches.
- Pacific both scored in 12 of 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in all three head-to-head meetings.
- Pacific scored in 7 of 9 away matches in the source window.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most matches for both teams have produced at least one first-half goal.
- Supra overall first-half total goals average 1.53.
- Pacific overall first-half total goals average 1.53.
- Pacific scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Supra scored first-half goals in 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's home second halves have averaged 1.2 total goals, pointing to a tight closing period.
- Supra home second-half total goals average 1.2.
- Supra's last 6 matches produced only 2 second-half goals in total.
- Pacific away second-half total goals average 2.11.
- Expected second-half total around 1.66 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home and away splits point to fewer than 8.5 corners, especially with Supra's low home corner counts.
- Supra home corners average 3.5, opponents 3.5.
- Pacific away corners average 3.71, opponents 6.0.
- Expected total corners around 8.36.
- Pacific's away matches average 9.71 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home and away splits point to a slightly lower total than the overall averages.
- Supra home shots on target average 5.0, opponents 5.5.
- Pacific away shots on target average 5.14, opponents 4.86.
- Expected total shots on target around 10.25.
- Combined overall shots on target average 10.56.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home and away splits point to fewer cards than the overall averages suggest.
- Supra home yellow cards average 2.5, opponents 0.5.
- Pacific away yellow cards average 2.0, opponents 3.43.
- Expected total cards around 4.2.
- Combined overall cards average 4.51.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Supra Quebec: 3/4 recent goals projections matched

3 of 4 comparable goals projections involving Supra Quebec matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Supra Quebec4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Canadian Premier League