FC Tulsa1New Mexico United0

HT 1–0Thu 1 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 05:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Tulsa's tight home defence meets a New Mexico side unbeaten in seven away matches.

New Mexico avoiding defeat is the likeliest single read, with a low-scoring night close behind. Five quoted prices are worth taking: draw or New Mexico at 1.91, under 2.5 goals at 2.05, both teams not to score at 2.10, a New Mexico win at 3.60 and no first-half goal at 3.10.

Context

FC Tulsa's Sept 18 promotion sold tickets to 'any of our three remaining regular season home matches' under the label 'the playoff push,' and its Sept 26 full-time post calls the New Mexico United visit 'back home next Wednesday.' That frames the fixture as one of a small, closing set of home games the club is openly selling as decisive, which is why the result matters beyond the night's form. The evidence is the club's own marketing rather than a current table, so it establishes stakes and intent rather than a precise qualification scenario.
- FC Tulsa posted on Sept 18, 2026 that tickets were on sale for 'any of our three remaining regular season home matches,' describing the closing stretch as 'the playoff push.'
- FC Tulsa's Sept 26, 2026 full-time post called the next home fixture 'back home next Wednesday,' the Sept 30 match against New Mexico United.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Tulsa's home form is built on a tight, low-scoring defensive record rather than a heavy attack, which shapes how this visit is likely to unfold.
New Mexico have scored in 12 of their 14 tracked competitive matches, so the clean-sheet run meets a side that regularly finds the net. The counterweight is that Tulsa managed only five goals across those same seven home games, so even a strong defensive night is unlikely to become a comfortable win.
- FC Tulsa's tracked home window covers seven competitive matches from 18 June to 30 August 2026, with a record of four wins, one draw and two defeats.
- Those seven home matches produced five clean sheets, with FC Tulsa conceding in only two of them.
New Mexico's road record is the strongest form line either side brings into this game.
It is a large part of why the visitors can be backed to avoid defeat at a ground where Tulsa have been difficult to score against. The run included sharp swings in scoring, from a 4-4 draw at Birmingham on 17 September to a 0-0 at Colorado Springs on 20 September, so it is consistency of result rather than a settled pattern of goals.
- New Mexico United's tracked away record from 12 July to 20 September 2026 is seven matches: four wins, three draws and no defeats.
- The seven away matches include a 4-4 draw at Birmingham on 17 September 2026 and a 0-0 draw at Colorado Springs on 20 September 2026.
The head-to-head record gives both sides something to lean on, which is why this fixture reads as close rather than one-sided.
This is the return game and it comes at Tulsa's ground, where the 2025 meetings finished 3-0 and 5-2 in the home side's favour around a 1-1 draw in October 2024. One goal decided the August meeting, so the most recent evidence points to a tight game rather than a repeat of those heavier home wins.
- New Mexico United beat FC Tulsa 1-0 in USL Championship play on 16 August 2026, with the match played at New Mexico.
- It is the most recent of the five meetings between the clubs in the head-to-head record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tulsa give away very little at home, but New Mexico have avoided defeat in every tracked away match and sit higher in the table, so the home side only holds a small edge.
- FC Tulsa's tracked home window is 4W-1D-2L with 0.43 goals conceded and 5 clean sheets in 7 matches
- New Mexico United's tracked away window is 4W-3D-0L, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.29 per away match
- League positions: New Mexico 2nd on 43 points, FC Tulsa 7th on 38
- FC Tulsa's league home record is 6W-3D-3L with 12 scored and 7 conceded in 12 games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC TulsaEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring from both teams makes a level opening period the most likely single outcome.
- Tulsa's tracked home first halves have produced 0.57 goals for and 0.00 against
- New Mexico average 0.86 first-half goals away and 0.71 overall
- Tulsa were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Split second-half scoring between a low-output home side and a strong away side points to a level period.
- Tulsa's tracked home second halves: 0.29 scored, 0.43 conceded per match
- New Mexico's tracked away second halves: 1.57 scored, 0.71 conceded per match
- New Mexico drew the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa give away very little at home, but New Mexico have avoided defeat in every tracked away match and sit higher in the table, so the home side only holds a small edge. New Mexico carry the stronger scoring record and have not lost on the road in this window, which offsets Tulsa's home solidity.
- FC Tulsa's tracked home window is 4W-1D-2L with 0.43 goals conceded and 5 clean sheets in 7 matches
- New Mexico United's tracked away window is 4W-3D-0L, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.29 per away match
- New Mexico are unbeaten in 7 tracked away matches (4W-3D), scoring 1.57 per game
- Their tracked record is 8W-4D-2L with 2.0 goals per match and 12 scoring games in 14
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Tulsa or New Mexico UnitedEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's home first halves have been controlled at the back, giving them a reasonable share of the early lead. Low first-half scoring from both teams makes a level opening period the most likely single outcome.
- Tulsa have not conceded a first-half goal in 7 tracked home matches (0.00 per game) and score 0.57
- New Mexico average 0.86 first-half goals away and concede 0.43
- Tulsa's tracked home first halves have produced 0.57 goals for and 0.00 against
- New Mexico average 0.86 first-half goals away and 0.71 overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Tulsa or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Tulsa's home matches have been low-scoring and the recent meetings between these clubs have mostly been decided by one or two goals.
- Tulsa home matches average 1.29 total goals, with five clean sheets in seven
- Four of the last five head-to-heads stayed under three goals
- Tulsa's tracked matches average 2.0 total goals (1.13 for, 0.87 against)
- New Mexico's away total is lifted by a single 4-4 draw at Birmingham
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Tulsa's home defence has shut teams out regularly, and recent meetings have usually featured a blank.
- Tulsa conceded in only 2 of 7 tracked home matches
- New Mexico failed to score in 2 of 14 tracked matches
- Tulsa's home window shows 1 both-teams-scored game from 7
- Three of the last five head-to-heads finished with at least one team blanked
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa rarely reach two goals at home in this window and usually settle for one or none.
- Tulsa have scored 5 goals in 7 tracked home matches
- Tulsa's league home record is 12 goals in 12 home games
- Tulsa's last six matches produced 10 goals in total for both teams
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFC Tulsa under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa's home record shows they almost never concede twice, which caps New Mexico's total.
- Tulsa conceded 2 goals in 7 tracked home matches
- New Mexico were held to 0 or 1 goal in 4 of 7 tracked away matches
- Tulsa's home clean-sheet rate is 5 in 7
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNew Mexico United under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
New Mexico's scoring consistency makes it more likely than not that Tulsa concede at some point.
- New Mexico scored in 12 of 14 tracked matches and in 5 of 7 away
- Tulsa conceded in 2 of 7 tracked home matches
- New Mexico's away average is 1.57 goals per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNew Mexico United to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
New Mexico have conceded in most of their recent away games and Tulsa usually manage at least one goal at home.
- Tulsa scored in 5 of 7 tracked home matches and in 5 of their last 6
- New Mexico conceded in 4 of 7 tracked away matches, at 1.29 per game
- New Mexico kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Tulsa to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score before the break, with New Mexico particularly active in opening periods.
- Tulsa score 0.57 first-half goals per tracked home match; New Mexico score 0.86 per tracked away match
- New Mexico conceded first-half goals in 3 of 7 tracked away matches
- Tulsa's overall first-half concession rate is 0.2 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tulsa have shut opponents out before half-time at home throughout this window, which works against both teams scoring early.
- Tulsa's tracked home first-half concession rate is 0.00 across 7 matches
- New Mexico's tracked away first-half scoring rate is 0.86 but their hosts have yet to concede early
- Tulsa score 0.57 first-half goals per home match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
New Mexico's late scoring pushes the second-half total up, but Tulsa's home second halves have been quiet.
- New Mexico's tracked away second halves average 2.29 total goals (1.57 for, 0.71 against)
- Tulsa's tracked home second halves average 0.71 total goals (0.29 for, 0.43 against)
- New Mexico's last six matches produced 14 second-half goals combined
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance51%