New Mexico United
Market 36.4% · BetBugs 55%
New Mexico's five-match winning streak and Loudoun's one win in eleven home games make the away side clear value at 2.75.
USL ChampionshipFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
New Mexico United are strong value to win at 2.75 (55% model probability vs 36% implied), and the Draw or Away double chance at 1.57 is an even higher-confidence play (80% vs 64%).
Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and First Half Over 0.5, as the market overprices all three relative to our estimates.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
New Mexico UnitedMarket 36.4% · BetBugs 55%
New Mexico's five-match winning streak and Loudoun's one win in eleven home games make the away side clear value at 2.75.
Market 63.7% · BetBugs 80%
Loudoun's 10 draws in 19 matches and New Mexico's unbeaten run make the away double chance a high-probability play.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%
New Mexico's attacking output (1.9 goals/game) and Loudoun's defensive vulnerability (1.5 conceded/game) support a match with at least three goals.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 44% leaves no cushion vs our 25% estimate; price reflects home bias but ignores Loudoun's poor home record.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Loudoun United | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 21-30 | 19 |
| 2 | New Mexico UnitedPlay Offs: 1/8-finals | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 26-17 | 33 |

