Ponte Preta1CRB AL0

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges3–538%

PossPossession 25%–75%ShotsShots 8–24On targetOn target 3–7CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 04:59 · Europe/Bucharest

CRB should win or at least avoid defeat given the 45-vs-10 points gap and Ponte Preta's 0.4 goals per game, but the 1.29 away price and 1.07 double chance are overpriced with no value.

The actionable edges are Both Teams to Score No at 1.83, first-half Under 1.5 at 1.57, and corners Over 9.5 at 1.50 — while avoiding Ponte Preta to score at 1.75.

Context

Ponte Preta are last in Serie B with 10 points from 28 games and are marked as a relegation team. Their recent run has produced no wins and no points.
Across the five defeats Ponte Preta conceded 6 to Londrina on 15 September, 2 to Sport Recife on 11 September and 2 to Sao Bernardo on 6 September, and they failed to score in all five. That pattern points to problems at both ends rather than one bad result. The limit is that this is a form sample, not proof of how they will set up against CRB.
- Ponte Preta lost 0-6 away to Londrina on 15 September 2026.
- Ponte Preta lost 0-2 away to Sport Recife on 11 September 2026.
- Ponte Preta lost 0-2 at home to Sao Bernardo on 6 September 2026.
- Ponte Preta have lost their last five Serie B matches and scored no goals in that run.
Ponte Preta sit bottom with 10 points from 28 matches, while CRB are seventh on 45 points, one point outside the top six. CRB completed their final preparation in Campinas on 19 September.
The table positions give both teams a concrete target: Ponte Preta need points to keep any mathematical survival path alive, and CRB can return to the top six with a win. Ponte Preta would lose any mathematical chance of catching safety if they lose to CRB and then Botafogo-SP, so the result carries direct consequences for both ends of the table.
- Gazeta Esportiva listed Ponte Preta bottom with 10 points from 28 matches and CRB seventh with 45 points, one point behind the top six.
- TNH1 reported that Ponte Preta would lose any mathematical chance of catching safety if they lose to CRB and then Botafogo-SP.
- CRB's official X account confirmed that the squad completed its final preparation in Campinas on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 04:58 · Europe/BucharestGazeta Esportiva — Ponte Preta x CRB: provável lineup and match previewwww.gazetaesportiva.com · 20 Sep 2026TNH1 — Ponte Preta midfield absence before CRBwww.tnh1.com.br · 18 Sep 2026
CRB are seventh in Serie B with 45 points from 28 games, six points behind leaders Vila Nova. Ponte Preta are 20th on 10 points and 20 points from the relegation line.
The table gap is 35 points, and CRB's away record of six wins, three draws and five defeats from 14 road games shows they can pick up results outside Alagoas. Ponte Preta's home record is one win, four draws and nine defeats from 14, so the venue does not clearly favour the bottom side. The limit is that standings describe the season so far, not the lineup either team will field.
- CRB are 7th in Serie B with 45 points from 28 matches, six points behind leaders Vila Nova.
- Ponte Preta are 20th with 10 points from 28 matches and are 20 points from the relegation line.
- CRB's away record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats in 14 matches.
- Ponte Preta's home record is 1 win, 4 draws and 9 defeats in 14 matches.
Ponte Preta average 2.5 goals conceded per game and 0.4 scored per game in Serie B this season. CRB average 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
Ponte Preta have conceded six goals twice in their last six matches, against Londrina on 15 September and Vila Nova on 19 August, and they also conceded two in each of their other recent defeats. CRB have scored two or more in four of their last six matches, including 2-1 against Sport Recife on 16 September and 3-1 against America Mineiro on 5 September. The limit is that averages and recent scoring runs do not guarantee the same pattern in a single game.
- Ponte Preta average 2.5 goals conceded and 0.4 goals scored per Serie B game this season.
- CRB average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per Serie B game this season.
- Ponte Preta conceded six goals away to Londrina on 15 September 2026 and six away to Vila Nova on 19 August 2026.
- CRB scored two or more goals in four of their last six Serie B matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Massive quality and form gap (CRB 45 pts vs Ponte Preta 10 pts) plus CRB's concrete top-six motivation against a home side with 1 home win all season makes the away win the clear structural and motivational edge.
- Ponte Preta are bottom with 10 points from 28 matches (2W-4D-22L, 16 goals for, 62 against, -46 GD) and have lost all of their last 5 (LLLLL).
- Ponte Preta home record: 1W-4D-9L in 14 home games, 9 goals scored, 23 conceded.
- CRB are 7th on 45 points (13W-6D-9L, 42 GF) and can return to the top six with a win; away record 6W-3D-5L with 17 goals scored.
- CRB average 1.3 goals per game and 19.1 shots per game over the last 15, versus Ponte Preta's 0.4 goals and 10.5 shots.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCRB ALEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's near-total inability to win (2 wins in 28) combined with CRB's top-six stakes makes a CRB win or draw the dominant combined outcome.
- Ponte Preta have lost 22 of 28 league matches and are winless in their last 15 (LLLLL in last 5).
- Ponte Preta have scored just 9 goals in 14 home matches, averaging 0.4 goals per game overall.
- CRB have lost only 9 of 28 and sit 7th with a +2 goal difference, unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (WLWWL).
- Ponte Preta's only home win came in a season where they have 4 home draws, so a draw is the main non-CRB outcome.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or CRB ALEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's 67% half-time leading rate against Ponte Preta's 60% half-time trailing rate gives CRB a strong first-half edge.
- CRB have led at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches (10 of 15).
- Ponte Preta have trailed at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta average 1.1 first-half goals conceded versus 0.3 scored.
- CRB's recent first halves include 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0 leads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCRB ALEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CRB's superior squad depth and Ponte Preta's late-game collapse pattern (0.5 red cards per game, 2.5 conceded) favour CRB in the second half.
- Ponte Preta concede 2.5 goals per game overall, with many coming after half-time in heavy defeats.
- CRB have scored 42 goals in 28 matches, showing sustained attacking output across both halves.
- Ponte Preta's fitness and discipline issues (0.5 red cards per game) often worsen late in matches.
- CRB's away record shows 17 goals scored in 14 away games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCRB ALEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's 13% half-time leading rate versus CRB's 67% half-time leading rate makes a CRB half-time lead or draw the dominant first-half outcome.
- CRB have led at half-time in 67% of matches and trailed in only 20%.
- Ponte Preta have led at half-time in just 13% of matches.
- Ponte Preta average 0.3 first-half goals scored.
- CRB average 0.5 first-half goals conceded, making an early Ponte Preta lead unlikely.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or CRB ALEstimated chance80%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's 2.5 goals-conceded average and CRB's 1.3 goals-per-game scoring rate point to a game with enough goals to clear 2.5, though Ponte Preta's own low scoring caps confidence.
- Ponte Preta concede 2.5 goals per game on average over the last 15 matches, including 6-0 and 2-0 defeats.
- CRB average 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, with 42 goals in 28 league games.
- Ponte Preta's last 5 matches produced 2, 2, 2, 2 and 6 goals against, showing a leaky defence.
- CRB's recent matches include 2-1, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0 scorelines, indicating consistent multi-goal games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's 0.4 goals-per-game average and 3.0 shots on target per game make it unlikely they score, so both teams scoring is a No.
- Ponte Preta have scored 0 goals in 11 of their last 15 matches and average just 0.4 goals per game.
- Ponte Preta have scored only 9 goals in 14 home matches this season.
- CRB have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 15 matches (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 2-0).
- Ponte Preta's shots on target average is only 3.0 per game, limiting their scoring chances.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's chronic inability to score (0.4 goals per game, 11 blanks in 15) gives CRB a strong chance of an away clean sheet.
- Ponte Preta have failed to score in 11 of their last 15 matches, including 0-6, 0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 0-2.
- Ponte Preta average 0.4 goals and 3.0 shots on target per game over the last 15.
- CRB have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta's home scoring is just 9 goals in 14 games (0.64 per home match).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPonte Preta not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's very low first-half scoring (0.3 per game) and CRB's modest 0.8 first-half average suggest a low-scoring opening period.
- Ponte Preta average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta have been leading at half-time in only 13% of matches and trailing in 60%.
- CRB average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Ponte Preta's recent first halves include 0-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0 scorelines.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's chronic scoring drought (0.4 goals per game, 11 blanks in 15) gives CRB a realistic chance of winning to nil, though CRB's own away defensive record (23 conceded in 14) tempers confidence.
- Ponte Preta have failed to score in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- CRB have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta average 0.4 goals per game and 3.0 shots on target.
- CRB's away record shows 6 wins in 14 away games.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's 1.3 goals-per-game average against Ponte Preta's 2.5 goals-conceded average makes CRB scoring 2+ goals a reasonable proposition.
- CRB average 1.3 goals per game over the last 15 matches.
- CRB have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta concede 2.5 goals per game on average.
- CRB's away record shows 17 goals in 14 away games (1.21 per game).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCRB AL over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's high corner volume (5.5 per game) combined with Ponte Preta's tendency to concede many corners (6.5 per game) supports Over 8.5 total corners.
- CRB average 5.5 corners per game over the last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta average 3.4 corners per game but concede 6.5 opponent corners on average.
- CRB's recent matches show corner counts of 5, 6, 6, 2, 7, 7, 6, 2, 6, 1, 4, 6, 11, 6, 7.
- Ponte Preta's opponents have averaged over 6 corners in recent matches (10, 7, 9, 12, 4, 9, 6, 3, 1, 6, 2, 6, 7, 3, 6).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CRB's 5.9 shots on target per game plus Ponte Preta's 3.0 combine to make Over 7.5 total shots on target likely.
- CRB average 5.9 shots on target per game over the last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta average 3.0 shots on target per game.
- CRB's recent shots on target: 8, 5, 8, 10, 4, 6, 4, 3, 10, 3, 8, 3, 6, 4, 7.
- Ponte Preta's recent shots on target: 4, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 2, 0.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte Preta's high foul count (16 per game) and card accumulation (2.6 yellows, 0.5 reds) combined with CRB's 1.7 yellows make Over 4.5 total cards likely.
- Ponte Preta average 2.6 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards per game over the last 15 matches.
- Ponte Preta average 16 fouls per game, with recent matches showing 6, 5, 4 yellow cards.
- CRB average 1.7 yellow cards and 0.3 red cards per game.
- Recent Ponte Preta matches produced combined cards of 3, 4, 6, 1, 5, 3, 8, 6, 9, 7, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 78% leaves no cushion versus our 68% estimate; the price already reflects the points gap and top-six motivation.

Prediction history

Ponte Preta's Over 4.5 cards projections have recently been reliable, with 3 of 4 fulfilled

Ponte Preta's Over 4.5 cards projections have been fulfilled in 3 of 4 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 57.5, and the current prediction of 58 sits within the historical range of 52 to 60. At home, 2 of 3 such projections were fulfilled, while the single away instance was also fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Ponte Preta4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Serie B