Burnley1Derby County1

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 6–17On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 4–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 05:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Back the draw at 3.60 and under 2.5 goals at 1.91, as both teams are struggling and recent meetings have been tight.

Avoid the double chance Burnley or Draw and first-half under 1.5 goals, which offer no value.

Context

Burnley are 24th in the Championship with 3 points from 7 matches, having drawn 3 and lost 4.
Their recent form is LDLDL, with a 1-3 loss at Swansea on 12 September and a 1-2 home loss to Bristol City on 5 September. They have conceded 16 goals, the most in the division, and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five league matches. This poor defensive record is a clear weakness Derby can target.
- Burnley are 24th with 3 points from 7 matches (0W, 3D, 4L).
- They lost 1-3 at Swansea on 12 September and 1-2 at home to Bristol City on 5 September.
- They have conceded 16 goals, the most in the Championship.
Derby County are 22nd in the Championship with 4 points from 7 matches, one point above the relegation places.
Their form is LLLWL, with a 1-2 home loss to Birmingham on 12 September and a 0-1 home loss to West Brom on 9 September. They have scored only 6 goals in 7 league games, the joint-second fewest in the division. This lack of goals could make it hard for them to take advantage of Burnley's defensive problems.
- Derby are 22nd with 4 points from 7 matches (1W, 1D, 5L).
- They lost 1-2 at home to Birmingham on 12 September and 0-1 at home to West Brom on 9 September.
- They have scored 6 goals in 7 league games.
Burnley's season averages show they have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and conceded 1.0 first-half goals per game.
In their last five league matches, Burnley were behind at the break in four: 0-2 at Swansea, 0-0 vs Bristol City, 0-1 vs Middlesbrough, and 1-3 at Norwich. This pattern suggests they often start slowly and give opponents early chances. Derby have scored 0.8 first-half goals per game, so they could exploit this weakness.
- Burnley have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches this season.
- They have conceded 1.0 first-half goals per game on average.
- In their last five league matches, they were behind at half-time in four.
Derby County midfielder H. Meister is ruled out by concussion protocol after a head injury against Birmingham City on 12 September.
His confirmed absence removes one attacking selection option for Derby and can alter their forward rotation. Meister had started two of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, so Derby must adjust without him for this match.
- Derby said Meister suffered a head injury against Birmingham City on 12 September.
- The club said the concussion procedures require him to be absent for a minimum of 12 days.
- H. Meister started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 05:19 · Europe/BucharestDerby County: Meister to follow concussion protocolwww.dcfc.co.uk · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are struggling and have shown a tendency to draw, especially Burnley at home, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
- Burnley home record: 0W 2D 1L in 3 home matches this season
- Derby away record: 1W 0D 2L in 3 away matches this season
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Burnley win, 1 Derby win
- Both teams have negative goal differences and sit in relegation zone
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's home resilience and Derby's poor away form make Burnley or Draw a solid double chance.
- Burnley home record: 0W 2D 1L (67% unbeaten at home)
- Derby away record: 1W 0D 2L (33% win rate away)
- H2H: Burnley unbeaten in last 3 meetings (1W 2D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBurnley or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown consistent first-half dominance, making a level score at the break the most probable outcome.
- Burnley first-half record: 7 leading, 60 trailing (percentages unclear but often behind)
- Derby first-half record: 36 leading, 43 trailing
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (Burnley 0.3, Derby 0.8)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams struggling to hold leads, the second half could end level, though uncertainty is high.
- Burnley have drawn 3 of 7 matches overall
- Derby have drawn 1 of 7 matches overall
- Both teams have similar second-half scoring and conceding patterns
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given the teams' tendencies, but the probability remains low.
- Burnley have drawn 3 of 7 matches, often after level first halves
- Derby have drawn 1 of 7 matches
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings ended in draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates and recent head-to-heads have been tight, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match
- Derby average 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match
- H2H last 5: 3 matches ended 0-0 or 1-1, only one had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks are inconsistent and have been shut out frequently, making it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Burnley failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches
- Derby failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings ended with at least one team not scoring
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First halves have been low-scoring for both sides, with Burnley especially slow starters, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Burnley average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
- Derby average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.5, but both teams often start slowly
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Defensive fatigue and late-game pressure could lead to more goals after the break, though confidence is low.
- Burnley concede 2.1 goals per match, many in second half
- Derby concede 1.7 goals per match, with second-half lapses
- Both teams have negative goal differences and tend to concede late
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest over 9.5 corners is possible, though variance is high.
- Burnley average 5 corners per match, Derby average 6
- Combined average corners: 11 per match
- Both teams have had matches with high corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, making under 8.5 total shots on target likely.
- Burnley average 4 shots on target per match
- Derby average 3.7 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 7.7
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate yellow cards at a rate that suggests over 3.5 total cards is probable.
- Burnley average 2.2 yellow cards per match
- Derby average 2.3 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%