Derby County1Birmingham City2

HT 1–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–190%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 18–18On targetOn target 4–9CornersCorners 10–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 05:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Birmingham City are unbeaten in five and face a Derby side missing key defenders and midfielders, making Draw or Birmingham City the safest outcome.

The best value is in Over 2.5 goals (edge +3pts) and Both Teams to Score Yes (edge +2pts), while the first-half goals market is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Derby County defender C. Forsyth has started 2 of the last 5 available fixtures, with M. Johnston covering the same position in 2 of those games.
Forsyth's confirmed multi-month knee absence removes a starting defensive option for Birmingham's visit. Johnston is the likely replacement based on recent lineups, but Derby's defensive cover is thinner for this match.
- John Eustace said C. Forsyth had undergone a knee scan and that the result did not look good.
- Eustace said the expected absence would be measured in months and described it as a blow.
- C. Forsyth started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Johnston started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when C. Forsyth did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/BucharestDerby County: Eustace interview after Portsmouth winwww.dcfc.co.uk · 3 Sep 2026
Derby are 20th in the Championship with 4 points from 5 matches.
At home they have played twice: a 3-0 loss to Swansea on 29 August and a 2-2 draw with Cardiff on 22 August. They have conceded five goals in those two games, which suggests Birmingham may find chances.
- Lost 0-3 at home to Swansea on 2026-08-29.
- Drew 2-2 at home to Cardiff on 2026-08-22.
Derby County midfielder L. Travis has started 3 of the last 5 available fixtures, with R. Brewster starting in the same position in 2 games when Travis did not.
Travis is expected to miss three to four weeks, removing a central-midfield option. Brewster is the likely replacement, but Derby's midfield depth is reduced for this match.
- John Eustace said L. Travis was likely to be absent for three or four weeks.
- Eustace said the injury was less serious than initially feared, but that Travis would still miss matches.
- L. Travis started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- R. Brewster started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Travis did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/BucharestDerby County: Eustace interview after Portsmouth winwww.dcfc.co.uk · 3 Sep 2026
Birmingham are 10th with 7 points.
Their only win came away at Wrexham on 28 August, and they have drawn their other four league games. This consistency could make them hard to beat, but the many draws also show they often fail to close out wins.
- Won 2-1 at Wrexham on 2026-08-28.
- Drew 2-2 at home to Wolves on 2026-09-06.
- Drew 1-1 at home to Southampton on 2026-09-01.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Birmingham City

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches and Derby have won only 1 of their last 5, making a Birmingham win or draw highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's superior recent form and Derby's defensive struggles give the visitors the edge, though Derby's home motivation and Birmingham's many draws temper confidence.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (1W 4D), while Derby have lost 3 of their last 5.
- Derby have conceded 10 goals in 5 league games (2.0 per game) and have a -5 goal difference.
- Birmingham have won their only away league match this season and are unbeaten away (1W 1D).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBirmingham CityEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's unbeaten run and Derby's poor form make a Birmingham win or draw highly likely.
- Birmingham have drawn 4 of their 5 league matches this season.
- Derby have won only 1 of their last 5 league matches.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Birmingham CityEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's first-half strength is offset by Derby's home motivation, making a level first half a reasonable outcome.
- Derby have led at half-time in 36% of matches and trailed in 43%.
- Birmingham have led at half-time in 47% of matches and trailed in 20%.
- In their last H2H meeting, the first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Birmingham win is a plausible scenario given Birmingham's second-half resilience and Derby's tendency to fade.
- Birmingham have drawn 4 of 5 league matches, often after being level at half-time.
- Derby have lost 3 of 5 league matches, with 2 of those losses coming after trailing at half-time.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Birmingham CityEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games, and Derby's leaky defense increases the chance of multiple goals.
- Derby's league matches average 3.0 total goals (15 goals in 5 games).
- Birmingham's league matches average 2.6 total goals (13 goals in 5 games).
- Derby have conceded 10 goals in 5 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Derby's defensive vulnerabilities make it likely both will find the net.
- Derby have scored in 4 of their 5 league matches.
- Birmingham have scored in 4 of their 5 league matches.
- Derby have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, making it likely that at least one goal is scored before the break.
- Derby average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
- Birmingham average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
- In Derby's last 5 league matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' patterns, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Derby's second-half goal difference is negative, with many goals conceded late.
- Birmingham have scored in the second half in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Derby's matches have seen an average of 1.7 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total could exceed 9.5, but the margin is thin.
- Derby average 4.8 corners per game and concede 5.2 corners per game.
- Birmingham average 5.8 corners per game and concede 4.2 corners per game.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derby's high card count and the competitive nature of the match could push total cards over 3.5.
- Derby average 2.9 yellow cards per game.
- Birmingham average 2.0 yellow cards per game.
- Derby's recent matches have seen 4+ cards in 3 of their last 5 league games.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%