Charlton Athletic22 – 1Derby County1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Derby's recent H2H edge and slightly better attacking output give them a narrow advantage, though early-season uncertainty limits confidence.

• Derby won the most recent H2H (2-1 at Charlton, Jan 2026) and are unbeaten in last 3 H2H (W2 D1).
• Derby averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over last 15; Charlton averaged 1.1 scored and 1.3 conceded.
• Derby's last 5 competitive matches (Championship + League Cup): W2 L3, but wins against QPR and Oxford; Charlton's last 5 competitive: W1 D2 L2.
• Derby had higher possession (52.1% vs 39.9%) and more shots on target (4.3 vs 4.6) on average, but Charlton's shot numbers are slightly inflated by one high-shot game.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDerby CountyEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Derby's H2H resilience and Charlton's modest home form make a Derby win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.

• Derby are unbeaten in last 3 H2H (W2 D1).
• Charlton's home form in last 15: W2 D2 L3 in competitive matches at home (Championship only).
• Derby's away form in last 15 competitive matches: W2 D1 L3.
• Both teams have similar goals against averages (1.3 vs 1.4), suggesting a close contest.

BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Derby CountyEstimated chance65%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Charlton's high draw rate at half-time and low-scoring first halves make a stalemate at the break the most plausible outcome.

• Charlton's half-time results: W 20%, D 60%, L 20% in last 15.
• Derby's half-time results: W 43%, D 21%, L 36% in last 15.
• In last 5 H2H, half-time results: 2 draws, 2 Derby leads, 1 Charlton lead.
• Both teams average under 1.0 first-half goals, increasing draw likelihood.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Historical H2H and both teams' moderate scoring rates point to a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals slightly favored.

• Charlton's last 15 matches averaged 2.4 total goals (1.1 scored, 1.3 conceded).
• Derby's last 15 matches averaged 2.8 total goals (1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded).
• 3 of last 5 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
• Both teams' first-half goals averages are low (Charlton 0.7, Derby 0.9), indicating slower starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Low first-half scoring averages for both teams and H2H history suggest a quiet opening period, with under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

• Charlton's first-half goals average: 0.7; first-half goals conceded: 0.5.
• Derby's first-half goals average: 0.9; first-half goals conceded: 0.6.
• In last 5 H2H, only 1 match had over 1.5 first-half goals.
• Charlton led at half-time in only 20% of matches; Derby in 43%, but overall first-half totals remain low.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' disciplinary records point to a moderate card count, with over 3.5 cards slightly favored based on averages.

• Charlton average 1.8 yellow cards per game; Derby average 2.4.
• Combined average cards: 4.2 per game.
• Derby received 4 yellow cards in their most recent competitive match (vs Sheffield Utd).
• No red cards in recent matches for either side, but consistent yellow card accumulation.