Swansea City3Burnley1

HT 2–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 05:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Swansea City are strong favourites at home to bottom side Burnley, with a 68% estimated win probability versus 47% implied by odds of 2.15—a 21-point edge.

The double chance (Swansea or draw) at 1.36 also offers value, while under 2.5 goals and both teams to score 'No' are supported by Swansea's elite defence. Avoid the first-half under 1.5 goals at 1.45, as the market overprices it relative to our model.

Context

Swansea are first in the Championship with 11 points from five matches, having won three and drawn two. Their home record shows one win and two draws from three games.
Swansea have conceded only one goal in five league matches, the best defensive record in the division. They have kept clean sheets in their last three league games, including a 0-0 draw with Wrexham on 5 September and a 2-0 win over Watford on 1 September. This defensive stability gives them a strong base against a Burnley side that has scored six goals in five matches but has struggled away from home.
- Swansea have conceded 1 goal in 5 league matches, the fewest in the Championship.
- They kept clean sheets in their last three league games: 0-0 vs Wrexham (5 Sep), 2-0 vs Watford (1 Sep), and 3-0 vs Derby (29 Aug).
- Swansea are 1st with 11 points, 9 points ahead of Burnley.
Burnley are 24th in the Championship with 2 points from five matches, having drawn two and lost three. Their away record shows two losses from two games.
Burnley have lost both away matches this season, conceding seven goals in those games. They lost 4-1 at Norwich on 29 August and 3-1 at West Brom on 23 August. This away form is a major concern against a Swansea side that has been solid at home, with one win and two draws from three matches.
- Burnley are 24th with 2 points from 5 matches.
- They have lost both away matches: 4-1 at Norwich (29 Aug) and 3-1 at West Brom (23 Aug).
- Burnley have conceded 7 goals in 2 away matches.
Swansea's style is built on keeping the ball, with an average possession of 57.9% in the Championship this season.
Swansea have averaged 57.9% possession and 13.2 shots per game, compared to Burnley's 50% possession and 12.1 shots. In their recent home matches, Swansea had 61% possession against Wrexham and 60% against Watford. This control should allow Swansea to dictate the tempo and limit Burnley's opportunities.
- Swansea average 57.9% possession and 13.2 shots per game.
- Burnley average 50% possession and 12.1 shots per game.
- Swansea had 61% possession vs Wrexham and 60% vs Watford.
Swansea City attacker R. Stewart has not started any of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Stewart is expected to miss this match with a quad injury, removing a forward option from Swansea's selection. His absence narrows the bench cover, though he had not been a regular starter in recent lineups.
- Swansea Bay News reported that Stewart has a quad injury and is expected to miss Swansea’s next four matches.
- Head coach Vitor Matos said Stewart could probably return during the international break; the report lists Burnley among the fixtures before it.
- R. Stewart started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 05:55 · Europe/BucharestSwansea Bay Newsswanseabaynews.com · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Swansea's superior league position, form, and defensive record make them strong favourites, with Burnley's poor away form (0W 0D 2L, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded) reinforcing the home win.
- Swansea are top of the Championship with 11 points from 5 games (3W 2D 0L), while Burnley are bottom with 2 points (0W 2D 3L).
- Swansea have a +6 goal difference (7 scored, 1 conceded) compared to Burnley's -6 (6 scored, 12 conceded).
- Swansea have won 3 of their last 5 league matches and are unbeaten in 5, while Burnley have lost 3 of their last 5 and are winless.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSwansea CityEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Swansea's unbeaten start and Burnley's winless run, the probability of Swansea avoiding defeat is very high.
- Swansea are unbeaten in 5 league games (3W 2D).
- Burnley have not won any of their 5 league games (0W 2D 3L).
- Swansea have not lost at home this season (1W 2D 0L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSwansea City or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Swansea's stronger first-half performance and Burnley's tendency to trail at the break give Swansea an edge, though the probability remains moderate.
- Swansea have led at half-time in 47% of their recent matches, while Burnley have led in 0%.
- Swansea average 0.7 first-half goals vs Burnley's 0.3.
- Burnley have trailed at half-time in 60% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSwansea CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Swansea's ability to finish strong and Burnley's second-half collapses make Swansea likely to win the second half.
- Swansea have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Burnley have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Swansea's superior fitness and squad depth likely give them an advantage late in the game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSwansea CityEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Swansea are likely to win, but their tendency to draw at half-time at home lowers the probability of leading at both intervals.
- Swansea have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches and won 60% of matches.
- Burnley have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and lost 60%.
- Swansea's home form: 1W 2D 0L, with 2 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSwansea City/Swansea CityEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Swansea's strong defence and Burnley's limited attacking output suggest a low-scoring match, with Swansea's home games particularly tight.
- Swansea have conceded only 1 goal in 5 league games, averaging 0.2 goals against per game.
- Burnley have scored 6 goals in 5 games but have failed to score more than 2 in any match.
- Swansea's home matches have seen 0, 2, and 0 goals this season, averaging 0.67 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Swansea's defensive solidity makes it likely they will keep a clean sheet, while Burnley's away scoring struggles reduce the chance of both teams scoring.
- Swansea have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 league games.
- Burnley have failed to score in 1 of their 5 league games and have scored only 2 goals in 2 away games.
- Swansea have conceded only 1 goal at home this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Swansea's excellent defensive record, especially at home, makes a clean sheet likely against a struggling Burnley attack.
- Swansea have kept clean sheets in 4 of their 5 league matches.
- Burnley have failed to score in 1 of 5 league games and have scored only 2 goals in 2 away games.
- Swansea's home defensive record: 0 goals conceded in 3 home games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBurnley not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious in the first half, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Swansea average 0.7 first-half goals per game and concede 0.4.
- Burnley average 0.3 first-half goals per game and concede 1.0.
- In Swansea's 5 league games, only 2 have had more than 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Swansea tend to score more after the break, and Burnley's defence weakens late, suggesting a higher chance of second-half goals.
- Swansea have scored 5 of their 7 league goals in the second half.
- Burnley have conceded 7 of their 12 league goals in the second half.
- Swansea's last 3 league games have seen at least 2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is close to the line, making this a coin-flip.
- Swansea average 5.4 corners per game and concede 4.0 opponent corners.
- Burnley average 4.1 corners per game and concede 5.4 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in Swansea matches: 9.4; in Burnley matches: 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are around the line, making this a balanced market with no clear edge.
- Swansea average 5.3 shots on target per game and concede 3.2 opponent shots on target.
- Burnley average 3.9 shots on target per game and concede 5.2 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target in Swansea matches: 8.5; in Burnley matches: 9.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are close to the line, with no strong signal for over or under.
- Swansea average 2.2 yellow cards per game and Burnley average 2.2 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards in matches involving these teams: 4.4.
- Burnley's away games have seen an average of 4.5 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%