West Ham3Derby County0

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 20–5On targetOn target 7–0CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 12:56 · Europe/Bucharest

West Ham are overpriced to win (1.29 implies 77.5% vs our 45% estimate), so avoid the match winner and double chance markets.

The best value is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.15, with a positive edge of +11.5 points. Derby's Carlton Morris injury is a key risk to that bet.

Context

Derby County are 21st in the Championship with 1 point from 3 matches, one point above the relegation line.
Their form is LDL, with a 3-0 home loss to Swansea on 29 August and a 2-1 away loss to Charlton on 15 August. They have conceded 7 goals in 3 league games, the joint second-most in the division. A defeat here could drop them into the relegation zone, so they are likely to approach the match with urgency.
- Derby are 21st with 1 point from 3 matches, one point above the relegation line.
- They lost 3-0 at home to Swansea on 29 August and 2-1 away to Charlton on 15 August.
- They have conceded 7 goals in 3 league games.
Derby centre-forward Carlton Morris has started three of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups, but he was absent from the squad against Swansea on 29 August.
John Eustace was reported to expect around two weeks out with a calf injury, which would rule Morris out of this match. His absence removes a centre-forward option and can alter Derby's attacking selection and chance-creation reference point. The reporting remains cautious, so his availability should be confirmed closer to kickoff.
- Derby’s official team sheet for the 29 August Swansea match did not include Morris in the starting side or substitutes.
- BBC Sport Derby reported that Morris had dropped out with a calf injury; Derby Telegraph reporting quoted Eustace as expecting around two weeks out.
- C. Morris started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 12:54 · Europe/BucharestDerby team news against Swanseawww.dcfc.co.uk · 29 Aug 2026Eustace injury updatewww.thedugout.football · 29 Aug 2026
West Ham are 19th in the Championship with 2 points from 3 matches.
Their league form is DLD, with a 1-1 draw at Watford on 29 August and a 2-1 home loss to Charlton on 22 August. They have scored 4 goals and conceded 5, showing they are competitive but not converting chances into wins. A home match against a struggling Derby side is an opportunity to get their first league win.
- West Ham are 19th with 2 points from 3 matches.
- They drew 1-1 at Watford on 29 August and lost 2-1 at home to Charlton on 22 August.
- They have scored 4 goals and conceded 5 in the league.
Derby County have lost two of their three Championship matches this season.
They lost 3-0 at home to Swansea on 29 August, managing no shots on target, and lost 2-1 away to Charlton on 15 August. Their only point came from a 2-2 home draw with Cardiff on 22 August. This poor run suggests they may struggle to break down West Ham's defence.
- Derby lost 3-0 at home to Swansea on 29 August with 0 shots on target.
- They lost 2-1 away to Charlton on 15 August.
- They drew 2-2 at home to Cardiff on 22 August.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

West Ham

1.29fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours West Ham, but our model sees only a 45% chance, suggesting the odds are significantly overpriced.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

West Ham or Draw

1.06fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 94.3%

0.0ppshort

The double chance price leaves no room for error; our 72% estimate is far below the implied probability.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates suggest a match with at least three goals is slightly more likely than not.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
West Ham's stronger recent form and home advantage outweigh Derby's poor away record, though West Ham's own home loss tempers confidence.
- West Ham home record this season: 0W 0D 1L (1 goal for, 2 against) in 1 match
- Derby away record this season: 0W 0D 1L (1 goal for, 2 against) in 1 match
- West Ham overall form last 5 competitive matches: D W L D W (2W 2D 1L)
- Derby overall form last 5 competitive matches: L D L L D (0W 1D 4L)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWest HamEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
West Ham's draw tendency and Derby's poor away form make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- West Ham have drawn 2 of their last 3 Championship matches
- Derby have lost 2 of their last 3 Championship matches
- West Ham home record: 0W 0D 1L; Derby away record: 0W 0D 1L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWest Ham or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half goal differentials, making a level first half a plausible outcome.
- West Ham leading at half-time in 27% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Derby leading at half-time in 43% of matches, trailing in 36%
- West Ham first-half goal difference: +0.1; Derby first-half goal difference: +0.1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a West Ham win is a plausible but low-probability HT/FT combination.
- West Ham have drawn at half-time in 53% of matches (27% lead + 20% trail = 47% non-draw)
- West Ham have won 2 of their last 5 competitive matches
- Derby have lost 3 of their last 5 competitive matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/West HamEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates suggest a match with at least three goals is slightly more likely than not.
- West Ham average 1.6 goals for and 1.1 goals against per match over last 15
- Derby average 1.3 goals for and 1.7 goals against per match over last 15
- Combined average total goals per match: 2.9 (West Ham) + 3.0 (Derby) = 2.95
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability and defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams scoring likely.
- West Ham have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches
- Derby have scored in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches
- Derby have conceded in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- West Ham average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.5 first-half goals against per match
- Derby average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.8 first-half goals against per match
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.1 (West Ham) + 1.7 (Derby) = 1.4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate, making over 1.5 second-half goals a coin flip.
- West Ham average 1.0 second-half goals per match (1.6 total - 0.6 first half)
- Derby average 0.4 second-half goals per match (1.3 total - 0.9 first half)
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics hover around the 9.5 line, making over 9.5 corners a marginal lean.
- West Ham average 5.3 corners for and 4.0 corners against per match (total 9.3)
- Derby average 4.9 corners for and 5.6 corners against per match (total 10.5)
- Combined average total corners: 9.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's high yellow card count and West Ham's moderate discipline suggest a match with over 3.5 total cards.
- West Ham average 1.9 yellow cards per match
- Derby average 3.1 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%