Burnley1Middlesbrough1

HT 0–1Wed 2 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 11:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Middlesbrough to avoid defeat (double chance) at 1.50, with a strong 78% model probability and +11.3 point edge.

The away win at 2.50 also offers value, but Burnley's home resilience and defensive adjustments add risk. Avoid first-half goals over 0.5 at 1.30, where the market price is far too short.

Context

Burnley are 22nd in the Championship with one point from three games, sitting in the relegation zone.
Their form is LLD, with a 4-1 loss at Norwich on 29 August and a 3-1 loss at West Brom on 23 August. They have conceded nine goals in three league games, the joint-most in the division. This match is an early chance to stop the slide, but the defensive record suggests Middlesbrough will create chances.
- Burnley are 22nd in the Championship with 1 point from 3 games.
- They lost 4-1 at Norwich on 29 August and 3-1 at West Brom on 23 August.
- They have conceded 9 goals in 3 league games, the joint-most in the division.
Burnley midfielder J. Laurent is suspended after his second yellow card against Norwich on 29 August. He started 3 of the last 5 available lineups.
Laurent's one-match ban removes a central-midfield option for the visit of Middlesbrough. Burnley must alter their available selection in that area, with no direct replacement named in the research.
- Burnley reported that Laurent received a second yellow card and was sent off against Norwich on 29 August.
- The FA's 2026-27 professional-player guidance assigns a one-match automatic suspension for a second caution in a first-team competitive match, effective immediately.
- J. Laurent started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:12 · Europe/BucharestBurnley FC match reportwww.burnleyfootballclub.com · 29 Aug 2026The FA 2026-27 player guidancewww.thefa.com · 31 Aug 2026
Burnley have a long injury list, with several first-team players unavailable.
Attackers Jaydon Banel and Ashley Barnes are out with injuries, midfielder Josh Laurent is suspended after a red card, and defender Bashir Humphreys is inactive. These absences reduce Burnley's options in key areas, especially in attack and midfield.
- Jaydon Banel (Attacker) is out with an injury.
- Ashley Barnes (Attacker) is out with an injury.
- Josh Laurent (Midfielder) is suspended due to a red card.
- Bashir Humphreys (Defender) is inactive.
Middlesbrough are fifth in the Championship with six points from three games.
They beat West Brom 3-1 at home on 29 August and lost 2-1 at Blackburn on 22 August. Their away record is one loss from one game, but they have scored six goals in three league matches. A win here would strengthen their promotion push.
- Middlesbrough are 5th with 6 points from 3 games.
- They beat West Brom 3-1 at home on 29 August.
- They lost 2-1 at Blackburn on 22 August.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Middlesbrough's superior league form and goal difference, combined with Burnley's relegation-zone struggles, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Middlesbrough rank 5th with 6 points from 3 matches; Burnley rank 22nd with 1 point.
- Middlesbrough average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match; Burnley average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Burnley have lost 2 of 3 league matches and are winless; Middlesbrough have won 2 of 3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMiddlesbroughEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's poor form and Middlesbrough's consistency make the away side avoiding defeat highly probable.
- Burnley have not won any of their last 3 league matches (0W-1D-2L).
- Middlesbrough have lost only 1 of their last 3 league matches.
- Head-to-head last 5 meetings: 3 draws, 1 Burnley win, 1 Middlesbrough win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMiddlesbrough or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Middlesbrough's stronger first-half scoring and Burnley's tendency to trail early give the away side an edge at the break.
- Middlesbrough led at half-time in 29% of recent matches; Burnley led in only 7%.
- Burnley trailed at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Middlesbrough average 0.8 first-half goals vs Burnley's 0.4.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonMiddlesbroughEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Middlesbrough's ability to start strongly and Burnley's poor first-half record support a possible away win in both halves.
- Middlesbrough have led at half-time in 29% of matches and won 2 of 3 league games.
- Burnley have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and have not won a league game.
- Burnley's only home league match ended 2-2 after trailing at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostMiddlesbrough/MiddlesbroughEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's leaky defence and Middlesbrough's attacking output point to a high-scoring contest.
- Burnley's league matches average 4.3 total goals (4 scored, 9 conceded in 3 games).
- Middlesbrough's league matches average 3.3 total goals (6 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games).
- Burnley have conceded 2+ goals in all 3 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, while Burnley's defensive frailties make a clean sheet unlikely for either side.
- Burnley have scored in all 3 league matches despite poor results.
- Middlesbrough have scored in all 3 league matches.
- Burnley have conceded in every league match; Middlesbrough have conceded in 2 of 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Burnley especially vulnerable early.
- Burnley average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Middlesbrough average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- In Burnley's last 5 league matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive in both teams' matches, with Burnley's defence often breached late.
- Burnley's matches have averaged 2.3 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Middlesbrough's matches have averaged 1.7 second-half goals.
- Burnley have conceded 5 of their 9 league goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Middlesbrough's high corner count and Burnley's tendency to concede corners should push the total over the line.
- Middlesbrough average 7.1 corners per match; Burnley average 3.8.
- Middlesbrough's opponents average 3.1 corners; Burnley's opponents average 5.3.
- Combined average corners in Middlesbrough matches: 10.2; in Burnley matches: 9.1.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a reasonable number of shots on target, and Burnley's defence allows many, suggesting a high total.
- Middlesbrough average 5.6 shots on target per match; Burnley average 3.8.
- Middlesbrough's opponents average 3.1 shots on target; Burnley's opponents average 5.3.
- Combined average shots on target in Middlesbrough matches: 8.7; in Burnley matches: 9.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's disciplinary record and the competitive nature of the fixture could lead to multiple cards.
- Burnley average 2.1 yellow cards per match; Middlesbrough average 1.1.
- Burnley's opponents average 2.3 yellow cards; Middlesbrough's opponents average 2.1.
- Combined average cards in Burnley matches: 4.4; in Middlesbrough matches: 3.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%