Waterford2Derry City2

HT 1–1Mon 14 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges6–275%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 16–14On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 07:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Waterford are strong at home and Derry are poor away, making Waterford or Draw (1.50) the top value bet.

Derry's defensive loss of Cotter and back-to-back away games further tilt the match toward the hosts. Expect goals, with Over 2.5 and second-half Over 1.5 offering additional value.

Context

Derry City right-back Barry Cotter has completed a move to CSKA Sofia and will not feature against Waterford. He started three of Derry's last five fixtures with available lineups.
Derry must adjust their right-sided defensive selection without Cotter. The interim manager described him as an important squad member, so his absence removes a regular starter and forces a reshuffle in the back line for this away match.
- RTÉ reported on 8 September that Cotter completed a move from Derry City to CSKA Sofia.
- Derry interim manager Mark Connolly told the Irish News on 10 September that Cotter would not feature for City and described him as an important squad member.
- B. Cotter started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:51 · Europe/BucharestRTÉ Sport: Derry's Cotter makes surprise move to CSKA Sofiawww.rte.ie · 8 Sep 2026The Irish News: Mark Connolly insists places up for grabs in his happy Derry City squadwww.irishnews.com · 10 Sep 2026
Waterford are 8th in the Premier Division with 32 points from 29 games, four points above the relegation play-off spot.
Their recent league form includes wins over Bohemians (3-1 on 9 August), Shelbourne (1-0 on 2 August), and St Patrick's Athletic (2-0 on 28 August), plus draws with Sligo Rovers and Galway United. This run has moved them away from immediate relegation danger, but they remain only four points above the play-off place, so they still need points to secure safety.
- Waterford beat Bohemians 3-1 at home on 9 August 2026.
- Waterford beat Shelbourne 1-0 at home on 2 August 2026.
- Waterford beat St Patrick's Athletic 2-0 away on 28 August 2026.
- Waterford drew 0-0 with Sligo Rovers away on 21 August 2026 and 0-0 with Galway United away on 25 July 2026.
Derry City play at Shelbourne on Friday before travelling to Waterford on Monday, while Waterford host Dundalk on Friday and remain at the RSC.
Derry face a second consecutive away game with only two days between fixtures, which can limit recovery and rotation compared to Waterford's home-to-home schedule. This scheduling difference may affect freshness and preparation for the Monday match.
- Waterford’s official preview described the 11 September Dundalk match as the first of two home league games that weekend, with Derry visiting on Monday.
- Derry’s official fixture listing scheduled Shelbourne away on 11 September and Waterford away on 14 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:51 · Europe/BucharestWaterford FC: Match preview, Waterford FC vs Dundalk FCwaterfordfc.ie · 10 Sep 2026Derry City FC: Connolly thoughts ahead of Roverswww.derrycityfc.net · 27 Aug 2026
Derry City are 6th in the Premier Division with 34 points from 29 games, but their away record is much weaker than their home form.
They have collected just 10 points from 14 away matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding 21. Their only away win came against a lower-ranked side, and they have failed to win in their last five away league games. This suggests they may find it difficult to break down a Waterford side that has been solid at home recently.
- Derry City's away record: 1 win, 7 draws, 6 losses in 14 games.
- They have scored 15 goals and conceded 21 away from home.
- Their only away win was against a team below them in the table.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Waterford's strong home form and Derry's poor away record, combined with recent H2H success, give the home side a clear edge.
- Waterford home record: 4W 7D 3L, 19 goals for, 16 against in 14 home matches
- Derry City away record: 1W 7D 6L, 15 goals for, 21 against in 14 away matches
- Waterford last 5 form: WDWWD (3W 2D 0L), Derry last 5 form: DLWDL (1W 1D 3L)
- H2H last meeting: Waterford won 4-2 away at Derry on 2026-07-03
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWaterfordEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's strong home unbeaten run and Derry's struggles on the road make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Waterford home record: 4W 7D 3L (79% unbeaten at home)
- Derry away record: 1W 7D 6L (57% draws or losses away)
- Waterford last 5 home matches: 3W 2D 0L
- Derry last 5 away matches: 0W 3D 2L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWaterford or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates and a tendency to be level at the break, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- Waterford first half results: 40% leading, 20% trailing, 40% drawing
- Derry first half results: 40% leading, 33% trailing, 27% drawing
- H2H last 5 meetings: first half results: W, D, W, D, W (no clear pattern)
- Both teams average first half goals: Waterford 0.8, Derry 0.7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Waterford's superior second-half goal difference and home advantage give them a slight edge to win the second half.
- Waterford second half goal difference: +0.4 (1.1 for, 0.7 against)
- Derry second half goal difference: +0.1 (1.1 for, 1.0 against)
- Waterford home second half record: 4W 5D 5L
- Derry away second half record: 2W 6D 6L
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostWaterfordEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Waterford win is plausible given Waterford's tendency to draw first halves and their home advantage.
- Waterford first half draw rate: 40%
- Waterford home win rate: 29% (4/14)
- Derry away draw rate: 50% (7/14)
- H2H last meeting: Waterford won 4-2 after leading 1-0 at half time
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/WaterfordEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the dominance required to win both halves, and recent H2H matches have been competitive throughout.
- Waterford won both halves in only 2 of last 15 matches
- Derry won both halves in only 2 of last 15 matches
- H2H last 5 meetings: no team won both halves
- Both teams average less than 1 goal per half
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's strong home first-half record and Derry's poor away first-half form make a Waterford lead or draw at half time likely.
- Waterford first half results: 40% leading, 20% trailing, 40% drawing
- Derry first half results: 40% leading, 33% trailing, 27% drawing
- Waterford home first half record: 5W 6D 3L
- Derry away first half record: 2W 6D 6L
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWaterford or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and recent H2H meetings have consistently produced over 2.5 goals.
- Waterford average goals per match: 1.9 for, 1.0 against
- Derry average goals per match: 1.8 for, 1.7 against
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4, 4, 6, 3, 9 total goals (all over 2.5)
- Waterford last 5 matches: 3, 2, 0, 2, 3 goals for
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and recent head-to-head matches show both teams finding the net frequently.
- Waterford scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- Derry scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in 4 of 5
- Waterford home average goals conceded: 1.14, Derry away average goals scored: 1.07
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and recent H2H matches have seen early goals.
- Waterford first half goals average: 0.8 for, 0.5 against
- Derry first half goals average: 0.7 for, 0.6 against
- Waterford leading at half time in 40% of matches, Derry in 40%
- H2H last 5 meetings: first half goals in 4 of 5 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show higher scoring rates in the second half, and recent H2H matches have featured multiple second-half goals.
- Waterford average second half goals: 1.1 (total 1.9 - first half 0.8)
- Derry average second half goals: 1.1 (total 1.8 - first half 0.7)
- H2H last 5 meetings: second half goals in all matches, average 2.4 per match
- Waterford and Derry both score more in second half than first half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest first-half scoring rates and recent H2H matches rarely see both teams score before the break.
- Waterford first half goals: 0.8 for, 0.5 against
- Derry first half goals: 0.7 for, 0.6 against
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in first half in only 1 of 5
- Waterford first half clean sheet rate: 50%
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, and recent H2H matches have seen double-digit corner totals.
- Waterford average corners: 5.6 for, opponent corners 5.4 against
- Derry average corners: 5.1 for, opponent corners 5.0 against
- H2H last meeting: Waterford 7 corners, Derry 4 corners (total 11)
- Waterford home matches average 10.2 total corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a healthy number of shots on target, and combined averages suggest over 8.5 is achievable.
- Waterford average shots on target: 4.8 for, opponent 4.0 against
- Derry average shots on target: 5.4 for, opponent 4.5 against
- H2H last meeting: Waterford 6 shots on target, Derry 2 (total 8)
- Waterford home matches average 9.2 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

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Prediction history

Waterford has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 recent projections

Waterford's Over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 4 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 68%, with an expected 4.1 fulfilled predictions, closely matching the actual 4. The current prediction of 60% sits within the historical range of 55% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Waterford6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Premier Division