IFK Stocksund2IF Karlstad1

HT 1–1Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 00:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Karlstad are likely to win or draw, but suspensions and market pricing leave no value in match winner or double chance.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10 (+7 points), while Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

IFK Stocksund are 16th in the 16-team Ettan Norra with 11 points from 20 matches, having won only twice all season.
They have lost four of their last five league games, including a 2-1 defeat at Assyriska FF on 4 September and a 3-2 home loss to Arlanda on 29 August. Their only win in that run was a 5-0 home victory over Gefle IF on 8 August. This poor run leaves them with little margin for error against a much stronger opponent.
- IFK Stocksund are 16th with 11 points from 20 matches.
- They have lost four of their last five league matches.
- Recent defeats include 2-1 at Assyriska FF on 4 September and 3-2 at home to Arlanda on 29 August.
IF Karlstad are third in Ettan Norra with 37 points from 20 matches, just five points behind leaders Stockholm Internazionale.
They have won five of their ten away matches this season, scoring 17 goals and conceding 10. Their recent away form includes a 2-2 draw at Gefle IF on 29 August and a 2-1 loss at Sollentuna on 22 August. This solid away record contrasts sharply with the home side's struggles.
- IF Karlstad are 3rd with 37 points from 20 matches.
- They have won 5 of 10 away matches, scoring 17 and conceding 10.
- Recent away results include a 2-2 draw at Gefle IF on 29 August and a 2-1 loss at Sollentuna on 22 August.
The teams have met five times since May 2024, with IF Karlstad winning four and IFK Stocksund winning once.
In the most recent meeting on 14 May 2026, IF Karlstad won 1-0 at home. IFK Stocksund's only win in this period was a 4-1 home victory on 28 September 2024. The away side's consistent success in this fixture suggests they know how to beat this opponent.
- IF Karlstad won the reverse fixture 1-0 on 14 May 2026.
- IF Karlstad have won four of the last five meetings.
- IFK Stocksund's only win in that span was 4-1 at home on 28 September 2024.
IF Karlstad defender S. Beko is suspended for this away match.
His confirmed absence removes a defensive option from Karlstad's matchday squad. The team will need to adjust its back line without Beko, though the specific replacement is not specified.
- Head coach Paul Olausson confirmed that Stevan Beko is suspended because of yellow cards.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 00:02 · Europe/BucharestKarlstad Fotboll: Dags att bryta den tunga perioden?www.karlstadfotboll.com · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

IF Karlstad

1.64fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61%

0.0ppshort

Karlstad's superior league position and away form are offset by the suspensions, leaving no value at 1.65.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

IF Karlstad or Draw

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The market already prices Karlstad's resilience, leaving no cushion for the double chance.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

While both teams can score early, the likelihood of both doing so in the first half is below 50%.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's superior league position, away form, and dominant H2H record outweigh Stocksund's home advantage.
- IF Karlstad sit 3rd with 37 points, while Stocksund are 16th with 11 points.
- Karlstad away record: 5W 3D 2L, Stocksund home record: 1W 4D 5L.
- H2H last 5: Karlstad won 4, Stocksund won 1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's strong away resilience and Stocksund's poor home win rate make a Karlstad loss unlikely.
- Karlstad have lost only 2 of 10 away matches this season.
- Stocksund have won only 1 of 10 home matches.
- Karlstad's points per game (1.85) far exceeds Stocksund's (0.55).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be closely contested, with a draw a plausible outcome.
- Stocksund lead at half-time in 33% of matches, trail in 47%.
- Karlstad lead at half-time in 40%, trail in 20%.
- Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's stronger overall quality should edge the second half, though confidence is low.
- Karlstad have a better second-half goal difference than Stocksund.
- Stocksund concede more goals in the second half (1.0 first-half vs 1.0 second-half, but overall defensive weakness).
- Karlstad's superior fitness and squad depth may show late.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Karlstad win is a plausible scenario given the teams' patterns.
- Karlstad often start slowly but finish strongly.
- Stocksund have drawn at half-time in 20% of matches.
- Karlstad's away record shows resilience.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/IF KarlstadEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows the consistency to win both halves, making this outcome highly unlikely.
- Stocksund have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Karlstad have won both halves in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams rarely dominate an entire match.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad are unlikely to be behind at half-time given their strong first-half performances.
- Karlstad lead at half-time in 40% of matches, draw in 40%.
- Stocksund trail at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Karlstad's first-half defensive record is solid (0.5 conceded).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stocksund's leaky defense and high-scoring home games, combined with Karlstad's decent attack, point to multiple goals.
- Stocksund average 1.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
- Karlstad average 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
- Stocksund home matches average 5.4 total goals (24 scored, 30 conceded in 10).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Stocksund's defensive frailty makes a clean sheet unlikely for either side.
- Stocksund have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Karlstad have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Stocksund have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making a goalless first half unlikely.
- Stocksund average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Karlstad average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.45 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open, especially with Stocksund's defensive lapses.
- Stocksund's matches average 2.4 second-half goals (total 3.9 minus 1.5 first-half).
- Karlstad's matches average 1.7 second-half goals (total 2.9 minus 1.2 first-half).
- Stocksund concede heavily late in games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While both teams can score early, the likelihood of both doing so in the first half is below 50%.
- Stocksund average 0.7 first-half goals scored, Karlstad 0.7.
- Stocksund concede 1.0 first-half goals, Karlstad 0.5.
- Combined probability of both scoring in first half is moderate.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%