Londrina1Operario2

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–109%

Edges0–70%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 21–17On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 05:50 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring derby is likely, with a draw the most probable outcome.

The top betting edge is under 9.5 corners at 2.05 (model 60% vs implied 48.8%); avoid the overpriced double chance 'Londrina or Draw' at 1.36.

Context

Londrina are 18th in Serie B with 22 points from 25 matches, six points below the relegation line.
Their recent form is DLDLL, with the only point in that run coming from a 0-0 home draw against Juventude on 1 September. They have lost three of their last four matches, including a 2-1 defeat at Ceara on 22 August. This poor run has left them in the relegation zone, and they need points to climb out.
- Londrina are 18th with 22 points, six points from safety.
- Their last five matches: DLDLL.
- They lost 2-1 at Ceara on 22 August and 2-1 at Sport Recife on 14 August.
Londrina sit 18th with 22 points after Round 25, seven behind Avaí, the first club outside the relegation zone.
That gap makes a home win the clear priority, as a draw would leave them still needing to close a large deficit. The fixture against Operário is an immediate chance to reduce the distance to safety, so Londrina are likely to push forward more than they would in a mid-table situation.
- Ge reported after the Juventude draw that Londrina were 18th on 22 points, seven behind Avaí, the first club outside the relegation zone.
- The same report identified Operário as Londrina's next opponent in Round 26.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 05:48 · Europe/Bucharestgege.globo.com · 2 Sep 2026
Operario are 9th with 37 points, but their away record is weaker: 4 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses in 12 matches.
They have lost their last three away matches, including a 1-0 defeat at Cuiaba on 19 August and a 3-1 loss at Atletico Goianiense on 27 July. Their last away win was a 3-0 victory at Goias on 21 June. This poor away form could give Londrina a chance to earn points.
- Operario away record: 4W 3D 5L.
- They lost 1-0 at Cuiaba on 19 August and 3-1 at Atletico Goianiense on 27 July.
- Their last away win was 3-0 at Goias on 21 June.
Londrina defender Yago Lincoln has left for Cercle Brugge, and Wallace entered the defence against Juventude in his place.
Londrina must now maintain a revised central-defence setup without Lincoln, which reduces their depth and forces continued reliance on Wallace. The change is already in motion from the previous match, so the back line enters this game with limited time to build cohesion.
- Ge reported on 31 August that Yago Lincoln had left Londrina and travelled to Belgium to sign for Cercle Brugge.
- Ge's 1 September Londrina preview stated that Yago's departure meant Wallace entered the team against Juventude.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 05:48 · Europe/Bucharestgege.globo.com · 1 Sep 2026gege.globo.com · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits and recent H2H shows frequent stalemates, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Londrina home record: 3W 5D 4L in 12, with 5 draws at home.
- Operario away record: 4W 3D 5L in 12, with 3 draws away.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws, 2 home wins, 1 away win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home form shows they avoid defeat in two-thirds of matches, and Operario's away form is inconsistent, supporting a home double chance.
- Londrina home record: 3W 5D 4L, 8 of 12 home games without defeat.
- Operario away record: 4W 3D 5L, 7 of 12 away games without defeat.
- Londrina home goals for/against: 15/14, balanced.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLondrina or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of first-half draws for both teams makes a level score at halftime the most probable outcome.
- Londrina first half results: 13% leading, 40% trailing, 47% drawing.
- Operario first half results: 20% leading, 20% trailing, 60% drawing.
- Both teams have high first-half draw rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combining the high first-half draw rate with the overall draw tendency yields a modest probability for a draw at both intervals.
- Londrina home draws: 5 of 12 matches.
- Operario away draws: 3 of 12 matches.
- First-half draw probability around 45%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring averages and recent head-to-head low-scoring pattern point to a match with fewer than three goals.
- Londrina average total goals per match: 2.3 (1.1 for, 1.2 against).
- Operario average total goals per match: 2.7 (1.4 for, 1.3 against).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had 0 or 1 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H often features a clean sheet, making BTTS No slightly more likely.
- Londrina failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches.
- Operario kept clean sheets in 3 of last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches ended with at least one team not scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a first half with fewer than two goals likely.
- Londrina first half goals average: 0.5 for, 0.7 against.
- Operario first half goals average: 0.7 for, 0.5 against.
- Combined first half average total: 1.2 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher second-half scoring rates for both teams suggest a marginal lean toward over 1.5 second-half goals, though confidence is low.
- Londrina second half goals average: 0.6 for, 0.5 against.
- Operario second half goals average: 0.7 for, 0.8 against.
- Combined second half average total: 1.3 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, but recent matches have seen fewer corners, supporting an under 9.5 line.
- Londrina average corners per match: 4.7 for, opponent corners 6.1 against.
- Operario average corners per match: 4.6 for, opponent corners 5.9 against.
- Combined average total corners: 10.8, but recent matches show lower totals.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target is below 8.5, suggesting a lean toward the under, though variance is high.
- Londrina average shots on target: 3.8 for, opponent 3.9 against.
- Operario average shots on target: 4.0 for, opponent 4.5 against.
- Combined average shots on target: 7.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The derby context and both teams' foul rates suggest a slightly higher chance of exceeding 4.5 total cards.
- Londrina average yellow cards: 2.2 for, opponent 2.3 against.
- Operario average yellow cards: 1.9 for, opponent 2.7 against.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.1, but derby intensity may increase cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Londrina's Under 2.5 goals projections have underperformed recently

Londrina's Under 2.5 goals projections have fulfilled in 3 of 7 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 64.3%, but only 43% of predictions matched, with missed predictions averaging 66.3% compared to 61.7% for matched ones. The current probability of 58% sits below the historical range of 60-75%, suggesting a lower confidence level than past projections.

Recent evidence for Londrina7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B