FC Arlanda1Umea FC2

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 00:11 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Arlanda are strong at home and Umea struggle away, but both teams are missing key players.

The best value is Arlanda or Draw at 1.35 (80% estimated vs 74% implied). Avoid goals markets like Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes, which are overpriced relative to our model.

Context

FC Arlanda are 4th in Ettan - Norra with 36 points from 19 matches. Umea FC are 12th with 20 points.
FC Arlanda's home record is 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in 10 matches, conceding only 7 goals. Umea FC's away record is 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses in 9 matches, conceding 16 goals. This contrast suggests FC Arlanda are likely to control the game, but Umea FC's recent 3-2 win over Vasalund shows they can score away from home.
- FC Arlanda home record: 5W 4D 1L, 15 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches.
- Umea FC away record: 2W 2D 5L, 11 goals for, 16 against in 9 matches.
- Umea FC won 3-2 at home against Vasalund on 2026-08-30.
FC Arlanda centre-back Viggo Elfström has left for IF Elfsborg immediately after 14 Ettan Norra appearances this season. M. Gorgos started in the same position in three of the four recent fixtures with available lineups when Elfström did not start.
Arlanda must now select a central-defensive pairing without Elfström. Gorgos is the most recent replacement used in that role, so he is the likely candidate to step in, but the sample is limited to three starts and does not establish a settled alternative. The linked match-winner outlook for Arlanda remains medium confidence, but this departure removes an established option from the back line.
- IF Elfsborg announced on 1 September that it had agreed a transfer with FC Arlanda for Viggo Elfström.
- Elfsborg said Elfström joined immediately and described him as a central defender with 14 Ettan Norra appearances for FC Arlanda this season.
- M. Gorgos started in the same position in 3 of the 4 recent team fixtures with available lineups when V. Elfstrom did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 00:09 · Europe/BucharestIF Elfsborg announcementelfsborg.se · 1 Sep 2026
Umeå FC winger Emmanuel Olawore has completed a move to Kongsvinger after 19 league appearances, including 18 starts, and he started all five recent fixtures with available lineups.
Umeå must replace a regular wide attacking starter for this away match. The evidence does not name a direct replacement, so the attacking line will change without a clear like-for-like option. The linked match-winner outlook for Arlanda is medium confidence, and this departure removes a consistent starter from Umeå's forward selection.
- Umeå FC announced on 2 September that it had sold Emmanuel Olawore to Kongsvinger IL.
- Fotbolltransfers reported that Olawore had made 19 league appearances, including 18 starts, before the move.
- E. Olawore started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 00:09 · Europe/BucharestFotbolltransfersfotbolltransfers.com · 3 Sep 2026
FC Arlanda average 1.9 goals per match overall, while Umea FC concede 1.5 goals per match.
FC Arlanda beat Stocksund 3-2 away on 2026-08-29 and FBK Karlstad 5-1 at home on 2026-08-23. Umea FC lost 2-0 at Gefle IF on 2026-08-15 and 1-0 at AFC Eskilstuna on 2026-08-02. This suggests FC Arlanda can exploit Umea FC's away defensive weaknesses, but Umea FC kept a clean sheet in their last away match against Enköping on 2026-08-23.
- FC Arlanda scored 3 goals against Stocksund on 2026-08-29 and 5 against FBK Karlstad on 2026-08-23.
- Umea FC conceded 2 goals at Gefle IF on 2026-08-15 and 1 at AFC Eskilstuna on 2026-08-02.
- Umea FC drew 0-0 at Enköping on 2026-08-23.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and Arlanda's home games average 2.2 total goals, but Umea's away games average 3.0 total goals, supporting over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, especially in their respective home/away splits.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making over 0.5 likely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda to score

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Umea rarely keep clean sheets away, and Arlanda usually score at home, so Umea clean sheet is unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's strong home record and Umea's poor away form, combined with the recent H2H win, give Arlanda a clear edge.
- FC Arlanda home record: 5W 4D 1L, 15 goals for, 7 against in 10 matches
- Umea FC away record: 2W 2D 5L, 11 goals for, 16 against in 9 matches
- FC Arlanda last 5 league form: W W L D L (2W 1D 2L), Umea last 5 league form: W D L L L (1W 1D 3L)
- H2H this season: Umea FC 0-1 FC Arlanda (away win for Arlanda)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home strength and Umea's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- FC Arlanda home record: 5W 4D 1L (90% unbeaten at home)
- Umea FC away record: 2W 2D 5L (only 44% points away)
- FC Arlanda overall: 10W 6D 3L, Umea overall: 5W 5D 9L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda have a better first half record, but the probability is not high enough for a strong prediction.
- FC Arlanda leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 7%
- Umea FC leading at half time in 27%, trailing in 33%
- Arlanda first half goal difference: +0.6, Umea: 0.0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda are likely to win, but leading at half time and full time is less certain.
- FC Arlanda home win rate: 50%, first half lead rate: 33%
- Umea away loss rate: 56%, first half trail rate: 33%
- H2H: Arlanda won away 1-0, but first half result unknown
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFC Arlanda/FC ArlandaEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and Arlanda's home games average 2.2 total goals, but Umea's away games average 3.0 total goals, supporting over 2.5.
- FC Arlanda average goals per match: 1.9, goals conceded: 1.3
- Umea FC average goals per match: 1.3, goals conceded: 1.5
- Combined average total goals: 3.2
- FC Arlanda last 5 league matches: 3, 6, 1, 1, 0 goals (avg 2.2), Umea last 5: 3, 0, 0, 1, 0 (avg 0.8)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, especially in their respective home/away splits.
- FC Arlanda scored in 8 of 10 home matches, conceded in 5 of 10
- Umea FC scored in 7 of 9 away matches, conceded in 8 of 9
- Both teams scored in 4 of Arlanda's last 5 home matches and in 4 of Umea's last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making over 0.5 likely.
- FC Arlanda first half goals average: 0.9, first half goals conceded: 0.3
- Umea FC first half goals average: 0.6, first half goals conceded: 0.6
- Combined first half average: 1.5 goals
- In last 5 matches, Arlanda had first half goals in 3, Umea in 2
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to have slightly more goals than the first, but the margin is small, so confidence is low.
- FC Arlanda second half goals average: 1.0 (total 1.9 - first half 0.9)
- Umea FC second half goals average: 0.7 (total 1.3 - first half 0.6)
- Combined second half average: 1.7 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda have a decent clean sheet rate at home, but Umea often score away, so probability is moderate.
- FC Arlanda home clean sheets: 5 in 10 matches (50%)
- Umea away failed to score: 2 in 9 matches (22%)
- Arlanda conceded 0.7 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostUmea FC not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Umea rarely keep clean sheets away, and Arlanda usually score at home, so Umea clean sheet is unlikely.
- Umea away clean sheets: 2 in 9 matches (22%)
- FC Arlanda home failed to score: 2 in 10 matches (20%)
- Arlanda average 1.5 goals per home match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Arlanda to scoreEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The -1.0 line is priced at 3.30, implying only 30% probability, but Arlanda's recent home wins have often been by narrow margins, making the handicap risky.

Prediction history

FC Arlanda has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals in recent matches

FC Arlanda has fulfilled 1 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 20% success rate. The average estimated probability was 57%, but only 20% of matches exceeded 2.5 goals, well below the expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions. At home, none of the 3 predictions were fulfilled, while the single away fulfilment came in a 5-goal match.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra