CA San Telmo0CA Los Andes0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges6–186%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 05:14 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring draw is likely between San Telmo and Los Andes, with both teams averaging under 1.0 goals scored per match.

The best value bet is Under 0.5 first-half goals at odds of 2.05, offering an estimated 60% probability versus the 48.8% implied by the market.

Context

San Telmo are 16th in Group 1 of the Primera Nacional with 27 points from 27 matches.
They are only one point above the relegation line, so a home win would give them breathing room. Their recent form is mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, but they have been stronger at home with five wins in 13 games.
- San Telmo are 16th with 27 points, one point above the relegation line.
- Their home record is 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses in 13 matches.
Los Andes centre-back D. Franco is suspended for this trip after a two-match ban. He started 4 of the last 5 available lineups and was already absent against Acassuso.
His absence removes a regular defensive starter and forces Los Andes to continue with an altered back line. The ban is confirmed, so the coaching staff must plan without him for the full match. The team's defensive shape may need adjustment, though the specific replacement is not yet known.
- Los Andes' 31 August call-up omitted Franco after a reported two-match suspension for his direct red in the prior Chaco For Ever match.
- He was absent from Los Andes' defensive lineup against Acassuso on 31 August.
- D. Franco started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestFútbol en Mil Rayitas: Los Andes call-up before Acassusowww.futbolenmilrayitas.com.ar · 31 Aug 2026TyC Sports: Los Andes 0-0 Acassusowww.tycsports.com · 31 Aug 2026
Los Andes are 10th in Group 1 with 34 points, but their recent form is concerning.
They have lost four of their last five matches, including a 3-0 defeat at Temperley on August 16 and a 1-0 loss at Chaco For Ever on August 22. Their away record is decent with four wins in 12 games, but the recent slump suggests they may struggle to impose themselves.
- Los Andes' last five results: D, L, L, L, L.
- They lost 3-0 at Temperley on August 16 and 1-0 at Chaco For Ever on August 22.
Interim coach Sergio Benet leads Los Andes for the second time after a 0-0 draw with Acassuso in a 4-4-2.
His first away match in charge brings uncertainty about selection and tactical adjustments. The 4-4-2 used against Acassuso is the only confirmed reference, but no lineup for San Telmo has been published. Benet's approach may evolve as he gets more time with the squad.
- On 27 August, Benet said he would manage Los Andes against Acassuso and then San Telmo.
- On 31 August, Los Andes drew 0-0 with Acassuso under Benet in a 4-4-2.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión: Benet confirmed for Acassuso and San Telmolaunion.com.ar · 27 Aug 2026TyC Sports: Los Andes 0-0 Acassusowww.tycsports.com · 31 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of draws in H2H and balanced home/away records make a draw the most likely single outcome.
- San Telmo home record: 5W-3D-5L, Los Andes away record: 4W-3D-5L.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 draws and 1 home win.
- Both teams have similar points per game (San Telmo 1.0, Los Andes 1.31).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Telmo's home resilience and historical H2H edge support a double chance on the home side.
- San Telmo home record: 5W-3D-5L, meaning 8 of 13 home matches without defeat.
- Los Andes away record: 4W-3D-5L, meaning 7 of 12 away matches without win.
- H2H last 5: San Telmo never lost (1 win, 4 draws).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA San Telmo or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently go into halftime level, making a first half draw the most probable outcome.
- San Telmo first half results: 7 draws, 7 losses, 1 win in last 15.
- Los Andes first half results: 7 draws, 5 losses, 3 wins in last 15.
- Combined first half draw rate: 47%.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half is more open, but draws still occur frequently for both teams.
- San Telmo second half results: 6 draws, 5 losses, 4 wins in last 15.
- Los Andes second half results: 7 draws, 4 losses, 4 wins in last 15.
- Combined second half draw rate: 43%.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is plausible given the teams' tendency to draw halves.
- San Telmo had 7 first half draws and 6 second half draws in last 15.
- Los Andes had 7 first half draws and 7 second half draws in last 15.
- H2H last 5: 4 draws overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates and strong defensive records, making a low-scoring match likely.
- San Telmo averages 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match over last 15.
- Los Andes averages 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match over last 15.
- Combined average total goals per match is 2.0, with 8 of San Telmo's last 15 and 10 of Los Andes' last 15 under 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Telmo's scoring struggles and Los Andes' defensive solidity reduce the chance of both teams scoring.
- San Telmo failed to score in 7 of last 15 matches.
- Los Andes kept clean sheets in 7 of last 15 matches.
- Los Andes conceded only 0.7 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with very low first half scoring rates.
- San Telmo first half goals average: 0.1 per match.
- Los Andes first half goals average: 0.3 per match.
- Combined first half goals average: 0.4, with 10 of San Telmo's last 15 and 9 of Los Andes' last 15 having 0 first half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Teams are more likely to score after halftime, as evidenced by higher second half scoring averages.
- San Telmo second half goals average: 0.6 per match (total 0.7 minus first half 0.1).
- Los Andes second half goals average: 0.4 per match (total 0.7 minus first half 0.3).
- Combined second half goals average: 1.0, with 12 of San Telmo's last 15 and 10 of Los Andes' last 15 having at least 1 second half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Telmo's defensive record suggests they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- San Telmo kept clean sheets in only 4 of last 15 matches.
- Los Andes scored in 8 of last 15 matches.
- San Telmo conceded 1.3 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Los Andes to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Los Andes' strong defense and San Telmo's scoring struggles make an away clean sheet likely.
- Los Andes kept clean sheets in 7 of last 15 matches.
- San Telmo failed to score in 7 of last 15 matches.
- Los Andes conceded only 0.7 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA San Telmo not to scoreEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 36.4% leaves no cushion vs our 28% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Prediction history

CA San Telmo has been inconsistent in Under 2.5 goals predictions

CA San Telmo has fulfilled 3 of 6 Under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 70.8%, but only 50% of predictions matched. Notably, missed predictions had a slightly higher average probability (71.7%) than matched ones (70%), suggesting no clear calibration.

Recent evidence for CA San Telmo6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional