Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

CA Los Andes1Ferro Carril Oeste2

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions1–910%

Edges0–60%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 17:22 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome, with CA Los Andes' rock-solid home defense (0.33 goals conceded per game) clashing against Ferro's efficient but narrow away wins.

The best value lies in 1st Half Under 0.5 goals at 2.00 (10-point edge), while the Half-Time/Full-Time Draw-Draw and Ferro -1 handicap markets should be avoided due to poor value.

Context

Los Andes home goals conceded per match: 0.33 (4 in 12 matches).
- 8 clean sheets in 12 home matches (67%).
- Only 2 home losses all season, with 6 draws.
Ferro away record: 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses.
- Only 2 of the 7 away wins were by a 2+ goal margin.
- Ferro average 1.17 goals scored away and 0.83 conceded.
Last 3 H2H: Ferro 0-2 Los Andes (Mar 2026), Los Andes 0-1 Ferro (Sep 2025), Ferro 2-0 Los Andes (May 2025).
- No team has won consecutive H2H matches in the last three.
- All three matches had under 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

CA Los Andes or Draw

1.39fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72%

0.0ppshort

CA Los Andes lose only 17% of home matches, but the odds imply a 72% chance, slightly above our 65% estimate.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Draw

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57%

0.0ppshort

Both teams draw at half-time in over 50% of matches, but the odds are close to our estimate, offering minimal edge.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

CA Los Andes' home matches average only 1.08 total goals, and their defense concedes just 0.33 per game, making Under 2.5 highly probable.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

CA Los Andes' 67% home clean sheet rate and moderate attack suggest at least one team will fail to score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CA Los Andes' strong tendency to draw at home (50%) combined with Ferro's solid but not dominant away form suggests a stalemate is likely, despite Ferro's recent winning streak.
- CA Los Andes home record: 4W-6D-2L in 12 matches, 50% draws.
- Ferro Carril Oeste away record: 7W-3D-2L in 12 matches, 25% draws.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 away wins, 1 home win, 1 draw (excluding older matches), no clear dominance.
- CA Los Andes last 5 form: L-D-W-L-L (4 points from 15), Ferro last 5: L-L-W-W-W (9 points from 15).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CA Los Andes are tough to beat at home, losing just 17% of matches, making a home win or draw the safer double chance despite Ferro's league-leading position.
- CA Los Andes home losses: only 2 in 12 matches (17%).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away wins: 7 in 12 (58%), but 5 losses/draws.
- CA Los Andes have lost only 1 of last 5 home matches (W2 D2 L1).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCA Los Andes or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of drawn first halves for both teams, especially at home for CA Los Andes, suggests a stalemate at the break is the most likely outcome.
- CA Los Andes home half-time results: led in 27% of matches, trailed in 20%, drew in 53%.
- Ferro Carril Oeste away half-time results: led in 20% of matches, trailed in 20%, drew in 60%.
- CA Los Andes last 5 home matches: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given the teams' tendencies, the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact scorelines, though the stats support a cautious approach.
- CA Los Andes home draws: 6 in 12 matches (50%).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away draws: 3 in 12 matches (25%).
- CA Los Andes half-time draws at home: approximately 53%.
- Ferro Carril Oeste half-time draws away: approximately 60%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to be evenly contested, with both teams having similar records, making a draw the most frequent outcome, though confidence is low due to limited direct data.
- CA Los Andes home second-half results: won 3, drawn 6, lost 3 in last 12 (estimated).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away second-half results: won 5, drawn 4, lost 3 in last 12 (estimated).
- Both teams show a tendency to draw second halves, especially CA Los Andes at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CA Los Andes' home matches are extremely low-scoring (1.08 total goals on average), and while Ferro's away games average 2.00, the defensive solidity of the home side strongly points to under 2.5 goals.
- CA Los Andes home goals per match: 0.75 (9 goals in 12 matches).
- CA Los Andes home goals conceded per match: 0.33 (4 in 12).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away goals per match: 1.17 (14 in 12).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away goals conceded per match: 0.83 (10 in 12).
- Combined average total goals in CA Los Andes home matches: 1.08; in Ferro away matches: 2.00.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CA Los Andes' strong home defense (67% clean sheets) and moderate attacking output make it likely that at least one team fails to score, despite Ferro's decent away scoring record.
- CA Los Andes home clean sheets: 8 in 12 matches (67%).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away failed to score: 3 in 12 matches (25%).
- CA Los Andes home failed to score: 5 in 12 matches (42%).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away clean sheets: 5 in 12 matches (42%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CA Los Andes' exceptional home defensive record (0.33 goals conceded per match) gives them a strong chance of keeping a clean sheet against a Ferro side that has failed to score in 25% of away games.
- CA Los Andes home clean sheets: 8 in 12 matches (67%).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away failed to score: 3 in 12 matches (25%).
- CA Los Andes conceded only 4 goals in 12 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFerro Carril Oeste not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with CA Los Andes especially stingy at home, making a goalless first half a strong possibility.
- CA Los Andes home first-half goals: 0.4 per match (average from form data).
- CA Los Andes home first-half goals conceded: 0.3 per match.
- Ferro Carril Oeste away first-half goals: 0.5 per match (overall average).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per match.
- CA Los Andes led at half-time in only 27% of matches, Ferro in 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams more likely to score after the break, and CA Los Andes rarely involved in 0-0 draws at home, at least one second-half goal is probable.
- CA Los Andes home second-half goals: 0.5 per match (0.9 total - 0.4 first half).
- Ferro Carril Oeste away second-half goals: 0.8 per match (1.3 total - 0.5 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 1.3 goals.
- Only 2 of CA Los Andes' 12 home matches ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the expectation of a low-scoring, tight match suggests a lower corner count, though this prediction is speculative and based on general league patterns.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Primera Nacional matches average around 8-10 corners per game based on league trends.
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds of 3.50 imply 29% probability, but our combined estimate for HT draw and FT draw is around 22% (55% HT draw × 40% FT draw), making it overpriced.

Prediction history

CA Los Andes: Under 2.5 goals has underperformed expectations

In 5 recent matches, CA Los Andes saw Under 2.5 goals fulfilled only 2 times. The average estimated probability was 76.4%, leading to an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, but actual fulfilment fell short. The current prediction of 75% sits within the historical range of 72–80%, and the team has struggled both at home (1/2) and away (1/3).

Recent evidence for CA Los Andes5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Primera Nacional

CA Los Andes0-0

Deportivo Madryn

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·80%→0 total goals

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Los Andes0-0

Deportivo Madryn

Under 2.5 goals

80%probability

0 total goals

Matched

11 Jul·Primera Nacional

CA Los Andes3-1

Ciudad de Bolivar

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·80%→4 total goals

Missed

11 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Los Andes3-1

Ciudad de Bolivar

Under 2.5 goals

80%probability

4 total goals

Missed

4 Jul·Primera Nacional

Almirante Brown1-0

CA Los Andes

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·75%→1 total goal

Matched

4 Jul 2026

Primera Nacional

Almirante Brown1-0

CA Los Andes

Under 2.5 goals

75%probability

1 total goal

Matched

21 Jun·Primera Nacional

Deportivo Madryn2-1

CA Los Andes

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·72%→3 total goals

Missed

21 Jun 2026

Primera Nacional

Deportivo Madryn2-1

CA Los Andes

Under 2.5 goals

72%probability

3 total goals

Missed

14 Jun·Primera Nacional

CA Mitre0-3

CA Los Andes

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·75%→3 total goals

Missed

14 Jun 2026

Primera Nacional

CA Mitre0-3

CA Los Andes

Under 2.5 goals

75%probability

3 total goals

Missed

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-2Ferro Carril OestevLos AndesMar 21, 2026PRI

W0-1Los AndesvFerro Carril OesteSep 28, 2025PRI

L2-0Ferro Carril OestevLos AndesMay 24, 2025PRI

D1-1Los AndesvFerro Carril OesteSep 30, 2018PRI

L4-1Ferro Carril OestevLos AndesMar 31, 2018PRI

CA Los Andes: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	CA Los Andes Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)	22	8	9	5	19-9	33	LDWLL
1	Ferro Carril Oeste Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)	23	13	4	6	26-21	43	LLWWW