Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Cuiaba MT1Operario0

HT 0–0Wed 19 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 6–21On targetOn target 1–3CornersCorners 4–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 10:46 · Europe/Bucharest

The most likely outcome is a draw, but the odds of 3.25 offer only a small edge.

The under 2.5 goals is probable but overpriced, and the double chance on Cuiabá or draw is a clear avoid at 1.30. No team news is available, so treat all markets with caution.

Context

Cuiabá home record: 3W-6D-2L (55% draw rate).
- Home matches average 1.55 total goals (9 scored, 8 conceded).
- Five clean sheets in 11 home games.
Operário away record: 4W-2D-4L (40% win rate).
- Away matches average 2.7 total goals (13 scored, 14 conceded).
- Failed to score in only 2 of 10 away games.
Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Cuiabá win, 1 Operário win.
- Operário won 3-2 at Arena Pantanal on 12 May 2025.
- The most recent meeting (April 2026) ended 0-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Cuiaba MT or Draw

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Cuiaba's strong home unbeaten record and the historical edge at home support a double chance on the hosts.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half win rates and the H2H shows frequent level scores at the break.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Cuiaba's home matches average only 1.55 total goals and their defensive solidity points to a tight contest.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Cuiaba's home defensive record and Operario's occasional away blanks make a clean sheet for one side plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's high home draw rate and the balanced H2H suggest a stalemate is the most likely single outcome.
- Cuiaba MT home record: 3W-6D-2L in 11 home matches (27% win, 55% draw)
- Operario away record: 4W-2D-4L in 10 away matches (40% win, 20% draw)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Cuiaba win, 1 Operario win
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's strong home unbeaten record and the historical edge at home support a double chance on the hosts.
- Cuiaba MT home record: 3W-6D-2L (82% unbeaten at home)
- Operario away record: 4W-2D-4L (60% not losing away)
- H2H: Cuiaba unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCuiaba MT or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half win rates and the H2H shows frequent level scores at the break.
- Cuiaba MT leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Operario leading at half time in 20%, trailing in 40%
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both intervals is plausible given Cuiaba's home draw tendency and the balanced H2H.
- Cuiaba MT home draws: 6 in 11 (55%)
- Operario away draws: 2 in 10 (20%)
- H2H: 3 draws in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's home games are low-scoring and their defensive solidity (17 conceded in 22) points to a tight contest.
- Cuiaba MT home matches average 1.55 total goals (9 scored, 8 conceded in 11)
- Operario away matches average 2.7 total goals (13 scored, 14 conceded in 10)
- Cuiaba MT overall average 1.9 goals per match, Operario overall 2.7
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's defensive record at home and Operario's occasional away blanks make a clean sheet for one side plausible.
- Cuiaba MT home: 9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 11 (clean sheets in 5 of 11)
- Operario away: 13 scored, 14 conceded in 10 (failed to score in 2 of 10)
- Cuiaba MT overall: 19 scored, 17 conceded in 22 (clean sheets in 10)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's home defensive record is solid, but Operario's away scoring rate tempers confidence.
- Cuiaba MT home clean sheets: 5 in 11 matches (45%)
- Operario away failed to score: 2 in 10 matches (20%)
- Cuiaba MT overall clean sheets: 10 in 22 (45%)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonOperario not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.
- Cuiaba MT first half goals average: 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per match
- Operario first half goals average: 0.7 scored, 0.9 conceded per match
- Combined first half average total: 1.3 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Operario's higher second-half scoring rate and Cuiaba's slight defensive drop after the break could produce more goals late.
- Cuiaba MT second half goals average: 0.5 scored, 0.4 conceded (total 0.9)
- Operario second half goals average: 0.8 scored, 0.9 conceded (total 1.7)
- Operario's away matches average 1.4 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's high corner count at home and Operario's moderate away corners suggest a total above 9.5 is likely.
- Cuiaba MT average corners per match: 6.5 (home average 6.5)
- Operario average corners per match: 4.3 (away average 4.3)
- Combined average corners: 10.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards at a rate that makes over 3.5 total cards probable.
- Cuiaba MT average yellow cards: 1.9 per match
- Operario average yellow cards: 2.5 per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 76.9% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Cuiaba MT has been highly reliable when projected Under 2.5 goals

Cuiaba MT has fulfilled 6 of 9 Under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 70.6%, with an expected 6.4 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment closely tracked expectations. The current prediction of 58% sits below the historical range of 60–75%, indicating a lower confidence level than past projections.

Recent evidence for Cuiaba MT9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Serie B