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Predictions graded

Daniil Medvedev #5Russia2Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia1

Sets 6-7 · 6-1 · 6-3Sun 25 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedFinalI.hard

Predictions1–614%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 123 places

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:45 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-five seed against the hottest record in the draw: Medvedev's 6-2 6-2 head-to-head win against Basilashvili's 13 victories in 14 matches.

Medvedev should come through, most likely in straight sets. Two quoted prices still offer something — Basilashvili to take the first set at 3.2 and Basilashvili to win the match at 4.25. The short Medvedev prices, 1.22 to win, 1.73 for 2-0 and 1.45 for under 2.5 sets, do not.

Context

The semifinal routes created an asymmetric immediate workload: Medvedev’s match ended after one set and a game, while Basilashvili completed three sets. That is relevant on the eve of their final because recovery time is otherwise shared. The available records do not provide match-duration, treatment, or recovery information, so they do not establish either player’s physical condition.
- Medvedev played one completed set before Bublik retired early in the second.
- Basilashvili completed a three-set semifinal against Tsitsipas.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:44 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Almaty Open – Singlesen.wikipedia.org · 24 Oct 2026
Medvedev holds the only head-to-head result on record between the two.
That 2022 scoreline is the clearest precedent between them and fits Medvedev's habit of taking early control in best-of-three matches. It is also four years old and predates the 13-of-14 run Basilashvili has put together since late September 2026. The head-to-head supports Medvedev as favourite without saying much about the version of Basilashvili arriving in this final.
- Medvedev beat Basilashvili 6-2 6-2 on 26 October 2022 in their only recorded meeting.
Medvedev's recent hard-court sets have started well and finished quickly.
That 13-match sample produced only two first-set losses and a 21.6-game average across the matches. It is the basis for expecting him to lead early rather than the reason he will. Basilashvili has won 13 of his own 14 first sets over the same period, so the opening set is arguably the least predictable part of this final.
- Medvedev won the first set in 11 of 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches tracked from 27 September to 23 October 2026.
- He won 2-0 in nine of those 13 matches, averaging 21.6 total games.
The Atmane quarterfinal included a 24-14 winners advantage and 31 of 34 first-serve points won by Medvedev. It gives match-specific context for how he reached this final after a controlled two-set win. Those figures describe one opponent and do not by themselves define the matchup with Basilashvili.
- Medvedev won 91% of first-serve points and did not face a break point against Atmane.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:44 · Europe/BucharestATP Almaty quarterfinals: Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Basilashvilitennissignals.com · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

−7.0ppshort

Both players' recent hard-court scorelines lean heavily toward straight-set finishes.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's ranking, recent hard-court record and head-to-head win outweigh Basilashvili's strong run.
- Medvedev is ranked 5th; Basilashvili is 128th.
- Medvedev has won 12 of his last 14 completed matches.
- Medvedev won their only meeting 6-2 6-2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance71%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili only needs to stay within three games or win, and Medvedev has had narrow recent results.
- Basilashvili's last six completed matches had game margins of +4, +8, +6, +6, +3 and +6.
- All six were positive.
- Medvedev's recent margins include -5 and +1.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNikoloz Basilashvili +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set wins from both players have usually kept totals below 22.5.
- Medvedev's last four straight-set wins totaled 20, 15, 22 and 17 games.
- Basilashvili's five recent straight-set wins average 19.4 games.
- Medvedev's hard-court average is 21.6 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both players' recent hard-court scorelines lean heavily toward straight-set finishes.
- Medvedev won 2-0 in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Basilashvili won 2-0 in 10 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Combined straight-set results are 21 of 27.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's higher ranking and strong first-set record give him the first-set edge.
- Medvedev won the first set in 11 of 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Basilashvili won the first set in 13 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Medvedev beat Basilashvili 6-2 6-2 in their only meeting.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance61%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' recent sets have been decided before a tiebreak.
- Combined, the two players had tiebreaks in 7 of 27 hard-court matches.
- Medvedev's six recent completed matches had no tiebreak.
- Four of Basilashvili's five recent straight-set wins finished without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance64%

Prediction history

Daniil Medvedev: 8/13 recent winner projections matched

8 of 13 comparable winner projections favouring Daniil Medvedev matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Daniil Medvedev13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#74Jan-Lennard Struff3-0#9Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·78%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#74Jan-Lennard Struff3-0#9Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

78%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#84Daniel Merida1-3#9Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·92%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#84Daniel Merida1-3#9Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

92%probability

Daniil Medvedev won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#60Marin Cilic0-3#9Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#60Marin Cilic0-3#9Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

72%probability

Daniil Medvedev won

Matched

19 Jun·ATP Halle

#81Daniel Altmaier2-1#7Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·78%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#81Daniel Altmaier2-1#7Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

78%probability

Daniel Altmaier won

Missed

17 Jun·ATP Halle

#53Terence Atmane0-2#7Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·82%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#53Terence Atmane0-2#7Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

82%probability

Daniil Medvedev won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-2Daniil Medvedev#5vNikoloz Basilashvili#128Oct 26, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Daniil Medvedev

13W 2L

6-3 ret.#19Alexander Bublik 6-4 6-4#98Terence Atmane

6-2 6-1#109Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 1-6 6-3#15Tommy Paul

6-4 7-5#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#119Dalibor Svrcina

4-6 6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 5-3 def.#12Novak Djokovic

7-6(4) 6-3#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 6-4#22Andrey Rublev

7-5 6-4#70Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Nikoloz Basilashvili

13W 2L

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#39Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3 6-1#79Adrian Mannarino

6-2 6-4#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 7-5#84Marin Cilic

6-4 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton

6-2 7-5#179Taro Daniel

6-3 2-2 ret.#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#135Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniil MedvedevMedvedev

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashviliNB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In64.4%+6.1pp58.3%

1st Serve Won80.2%+0.8pp81.0%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+9.2pp57.8%

Aces / Match10.6+1.09.6

Double Faults / Match3.00.7 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.8%+1.1pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.9%+4.0pp37.9%

Break Pts Saved73.4%+15.1pp58.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won54.0%—54.3%

Serve · 2–3

64.4%1st Serve In+6.1pp58.3%

80.2%1st Serve Won+0.8pp81.0%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+9.2pp57.8%

10.6Aces / Match+1.09.6

3.0Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

40.8%Return Pts Won+1.1pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

33.9%Break Pts Converted+4.0pp37.9%

73.4%Break Pts Saved+15.1pp58.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

54.0%Total Pts Won—54.3%

Daniil Medvedev

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Under 2.5

Daniil Medvedev 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Stat Battle