KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Daniil Medvedev #5Russia2Terence Atmane #98France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Fri 23 Oct 2026, 09:35 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 93 places

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 on April 13, 2026. The reviewed public results did not establish a reliable preferred-surface label or a current active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev, the defending champion, faces a left-hander who has needed four tiebreak sets to reach this quarter-final, so the gap between No. 5 and No. 98 is not the whole story.

Medvedev is still the clear pick to win. The 1.15 on him asks for 87% and offers nothing; the 1.25 first-set and second-set prices and 1.55 for a 2-0 win are just as short, so no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

The default ended a Beijing run that had already produced three wins, and it removed the points a final would have added in the closing weeks of the ATP Finals race, in which Medvedev holds a top-five position. He has since played five matches in Shanghai, losing a semi-final to Rafael Jodar 6-3 6-4 on 17 October, then opened in Almaty with a 6-2 6-1 win five days later. Those results do not indicate the incident altered his level or his availability, so it belongs as season context and as the only default on his record rather than as a measurable handicap for this quarterfinal.
- Beijing semi-final against Djokovic recorded as 7-5 5-3 def. on 5 October 2026
- The default was his first at tour level after a long career of on-court incidents
- Shanghai followed with wins over Struff, Svrcina, Tsitsipas and Paul, then a 6-3 6-4 loss to Rafael Jodar on 17 October
- Almaty opener won 6-2 6-1 against Sho Shimabukuro on 22 October
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Almaty in 2025 ended an 882-day wait for a title, and Medvedev returned to the same indoor hard court to open the defence with a 6-2 6-1 win over Sho Shimabukuro . The defence carries 250 ranking points at a stage of the season when he is holding a top-five ranking and a place in the ATP Finals race. The 2010 junior title in Ust-Kamenogorsk is a coincidence of geography rather than a cause, and the 2025 final itself went to three sets, so the venue history does not imply comfortable margins this week.
- 2025 Almaty title ended an 882-day run without a tour-level trophy
- First junior title won as a qualifier in Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, in 2010
- Opened the 2026 defence with a 6-2 6-1 win over Sho Shimabukuro
- Seeded first in the Almaty draw
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Three of the four sets Atmane has won in Almaty came by tiebreak, and the Bellucci match required three of them, so he reaches this quarterfinal after two days of scoreboard-tight tennis decided on a handful of points. Medvedev's route was a single 6-2 6-1 match, giving him the shorter and less attritional path into the same round. A three-set win the previous day is an ordinary workload for a 24-year-old who has now won consecutive matches for the first time since late September, and no fitness issue has been reported, so the recovery gap is a factor to weigh rather than a confirmed physical problem.
- First round: 7-6(5) 6-2 over Rinky Hijikata on 20 October
- Second round: 6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(5) over Mattia Bellucci, all three sets decided by tiebreak
- Three of the four sets he has won this week came by tiebreak
- Medvedev's corresponding match was a single 6-2 6-1 win
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:46 · Europe/Bucharest
The sample covers Medvedev's recent indoor and outdoor hard-court tennis through his Almaty opener.
Nine two-set wins in 13 matches points to a short match, but Atmane has forced tiebreaks in seven of his 11 hard-court best-of-three matches, so dropping a set stays a live risk. Medvedev's 21.8-game average sits below Atmane's 24.5 in the same format, and the gap comes largely from how often Medvedev closes a set at 6-4 rather than through a tiebreak. The sample is recent but small.
- 13 completed hard-court best-of-three matches, 26 Sep–22 Oct 2026: scorelines 2-0 in nine, 2-1 in three, 0-2 in one
- First sets won 11-2, second sets won 10-3; average 21.8 total games and 2.23 sets per match
- Atmane's comparable sample: 11 matches, average 24.5 total games

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.15fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 87%

−5.0ppshort

Medvedev holds a clear ranking, head-to-head and surface-record advantage, with much stronger serve numbers.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

Medvedev's first-set record on hard courts is much stronger than Atmane's, and he started well in Almaty.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Medvedev's second-set record remains strong, and his serve gives him a clear hold advantage.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Daniil Medvedev 2-0

1.55fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 64.5%

−5.5ppshort

Medvedev's straight-set rate and first- and second-set records point to a two-set win as his most likely scoreline.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Medvedev holds a clear ranking, head-to-head and surface-record advantage, with much stronger serve numbers.
- Medvedev is 12-3 on hard in the last 15 and won 24 of 34 sets.
- In hard-court best-of-3 matches he is 11-2 in first sets and 10-3 in second sets.
- He beat Atmane 6-4 6-4 in their June 2026 meeting.
- Atmane is ranked 98 and has no serve metrics supplied for the last 12 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance82%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's second sets are often long and tiebreak-heavy, which pushes the total above nine and a half games.
- Atmane's second sets average 11.27 total games in hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Six of Atmane's 11 second sets in this format went to tiebreaks.
- Medvedev's second sets average 9.46 total games in the same format.
- Atmane's Bellucci match had second- and third-set tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's serve strength and straight-set record favor a shorter match than Atmane's recent averages suggest.
- Medvedev's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 21.8 total games.
- Their June 2026 meeting ended 6-4 6-4 in 20 games.
- Medvedev's Almaty opener was a 6-2 6-1 win in 15 games.
- Atmane's 24.5-game average includes several three-set and tiebreak matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages sit just above nine and a half games, with Atmane capable of forcing tiebreaks.
- Medvedev's first sets average 10.23 total games in hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Atmane's first sets average 10.36 total games in the same format.
- Atmane has three first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Medvedev's recent first sets include 6-4 and 4-6 scores.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Medvedev's first-set record on hard courts is much stronger than Atmane's, and he started well in Almaty.
- Medvedev won 11 of 13 first sets in hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Atmane won 7 of 11 first sets but lost the opening set to Bellucci.
- Medvedev won the first set 6-4 in their June 2026 meeting.
- Medvedev averages 5.92 first-set games won and 4.31 lost in this format.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Medvedev's second-set record remains strong, and his serve gives him a clear hold advantage.
- Medvedev won 10 of 13 second sets in hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Atmane won 6 of 11 second sets and lost a second-set tiebreak to Bellucci.
- Medvedev averages 5.54 second-set games won and 3.92 lost in this format.
- Medvedev won the second set 6-4 in their June 2026 meeting.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's high first-serve points won and straight-set rate make a two-set finish more likely.
- Medvedev won 9 of 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches 2-0.
- Atmane lost 3 of 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches 0-2.
- Medvedev's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 2.23 sets.
- Atmane's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 2.27 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Medvedev's straight-set rate and first- and second-set records point to a two-set win as his most likely scoreline.
- Medvedev won 9 of 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches 2-0.
- Medvedev won 11 of 13 first sets and 10 of 13 second sets in this format.
- Their June 2026 meeting finished 6-4 6-4.
- Atmane lost 3 of 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches 0-2.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonDaniil Medvedev 2-0Estimated chance59%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's serve has kept sets close enough for tiebreaks, while Medvedev's hold strength can also avoid them.
- Atmane has seven matches with a tiebreak in 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Atmane's Bellucci match had three tiebreak sets and his Hijikata match had one.
- Medvedev has three matches with a tiebreak in 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Medvedev wins 78.9% of first-serve points in the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.15 price requires 87.0%, above our 82.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Daniil Medvedev#5vTerence Atmane#98Jun 17, 2026

W5-7 6-2 6-4 1-0 ret.Daniil Medvedev#5vTerence Atmane#98Jan 15, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Daniil Medvedev

12W 3L

6-2 6-1#109Sho Shimabukuro 6-3 6-4#11Rafael Jodar 6-3 1-6 6-3#15Tommy Paul

6-4 7-5#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#119Dalibor Svrcina

4-6 6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 5-3 def.#12Novak Djokovic

7-6(4) 6-3#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 6-4#22Andrey Rublev

7-5 6-4#70Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-6(6) 6-3#110Valentin Royer

7-6(1) 6-4 7-6(6)#9Frances Tiafoe

Terence Atmane

8W 7L

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(5)#68Mattia Bellucci 7-6(5) 6-2#86Rinky Hijikata

6-3 4-6 5-3 ret.#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 5-5 ret.#228Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#435Enzo Aguiard

6-1 6-4#620Dominik Palan

3-6 7-6(9) 6-4#56Jaime Faria

6-7(5) 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 7-6(4)#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

3-1 ret.#141Marton Fucsovics

7-5 6-4#16Jakub Mensik

6-4 7-6(3)#25Karen Khachanov

6-3 2-6 6-2#157Jack Draper

6-3 7-6(6)#31Alejandro Tabilo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniil MedvedevMedvedev

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Terence AtmaneAtmaneTA

Daniil Medvedev carries the stronger recent form — Terence Atmane's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.4%+1.8pp61.6%

1st Serve Won78.9%+2.7pp76.2%

2nd Serve Won46.7%+7.2pp53.9%

Aces / Match11.7+3.68.1

Double Faults / Match3.3—3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.3%+9.6pp30.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted34.6%+13.6pp48.2%

Break Pts Saved71.4%+2.6pp68.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.0%+2.9pp50.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

63.4%1st Serve In+1.8pp61.6%

78.9%1st Serve Won+2.7pp76.2%

46.7%2nd Serve Won+7.2pp53.9%

11.7Aces / Match+3.68.1

3.3Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 1–0

40.3%Return Pts Won+9.6pp30.7%

Pressure · 1–1

34.6%Break Pts Converted+13.6pp48.2%

71.4%Break Pts Saved+2.6pp68.8%

Points · 1–0

53.0%Total Pts Won+2.9pp50.1%