KazakhstanATP AlmatyRETFeatured

Predictions graded

Daniil Medvedev #5Russia1Alexander Bublik #19Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-3Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalI.hard

Predictions1–150%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 14 places

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

Bublik, 29, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached No. 10 in January 2026 after winning Hong Kong; hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #19
Peak ranking: #10 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev is the defending champion, has won seven of eight meetings with Bublik and spent far less time on court in the quarter-finals, so a place in the final is the obvious read.

Bublik's serve and tie-break habit keep it from being one-way. Medvedev at 1.45 to win, 1.5 for the first set and 2.2 for a 2-0 win all ask less than his record justifies; 1.5 for the second set is fair rather than generous.

Context

The semi-final follows markedly different quarter-final workloads: Bublik needed 147 minutes and two tie-break sets to get past Khachanov, while Medvedev won in straight sets. That creates a concrete short-turnaround contrast for this fixture. Bublik completed the match without a retirement, so the issue is accumulated match time rather than a confirmed availability problem.
- Bublik's quarter-final against Khachanov lasted 147 minutes.
- Medvedev reached the semi-final with a straight-sets win over Atmane.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:25 · Europe/BucharestMedvedev vs Bublik, Almaty 2026en.tennistemple.com · 23 Oct 2026
Bublik's first-set record is the weakest part of his recent hard-court form.
Those six matches (25 September to 23 October 2026) show Bublik regularly giving away the early lead, while Medvedev has taken 12 of 14 first sets in his own hard-court sample. The counterweight is Bublik's serve: two of those six opening sets still went to tie-breaks, so a lost first set has not always been a quick one. A slow start against Medvedev leaves little room to recover over three sets.
- Bublik played six hard-court best-of-three matches between 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-23.
- He won one first set and lost five across that sample.
- Two of those six first sets went to a tie-break.
Their most recent meeting produced Bublik's sole win in eight matches against Medvedev, in the 2025 Halle final. It provides a specific recent reference point between these opponents rather than only a head-to-head total. Halle was played on grass, however, whereas Almaty is an indoor hard-court event, limiting how directly that final translates to this match.
- Bublik's June 2025 Halle title came with a straight-sets win over Medvedev.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:25 · Europe/BucharestMedvedev vs Bublik, Almaty 2026en.tennistemple.com · 23 Oct 2026
Bublik's serve has kept his sets long and tight despite a modest win rate.
His second sets averaged 11.2 games, and the six-match sample from 25 September to 23 October 2026 shows sets staying close even when he was second-best. Three second-set tie-breaks in six matches underline how much his serve keeps him in contact. The window is short, so this is a descriptive pattern rather than a settled trait.
- Bublik's six hard-court best-of-three matches from 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-23 averaged 28.3 total games.
- Five of those six matches included at least one tie-break.
- His second sets averaged 11.2 games, with three second-set tie-breaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Medvedev has the stronger recent hard-court record, a clear head-to-head lead and a shorter semi-final route.
- Medvedev is 13-2 in his last 15 hard matches and leads the head-to-head 7-1.
- He won 12 of 14 first sets and 11 of 14 second sets in hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bublik needed 147 minutes to win his quarter-final; Medvedev won in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance77%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's second sets often extend into tiebreaks, pushing the total above the line.
- Bublik's second sets average 11.2 games in hard best-of-3 matches.
- Three of Bublik's six second sets went to tiebreaks.
- Medvedev's second sets average 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages sit above the 9.5 line, with Bublik's serve adding tiebreak risk.
- Medvedev's first sets average 10.2 games; Bublik's average 10.7 in hard best-of-3.
- Bublik had two first-set tiebreaks in six hard best-of-3 matches.
- Medvedev's first sets average 5.9 games won to 4.3 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's serving and tiebreak tendency point to a longer match than Medvedev's average.
- Bublik's six hard best-of-3 matches average 28.3 total games.
- Medvedev's 14 hard best-of-3 matches average 21.6 total games.
- Bublik had a tiebreak in five of six hard best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Medvedev has started strongly on hard courts and Bublik has usually lost the opening set.
- Medvedev won 12 of 14 first sets in hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bublik lost 5 of 6 first sets in the same format.
- Medvedev beat Atmane 6-4 6-4 in the quarter-final.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Medvedev has been the stronger second-set player overall, though Bublik improves in that set.
- Medvedev won 11 of 14 second sets in hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bublik lost 2 of 6 second sets in that sample.
- Medvedev has a 7-1 career head-to-head lead.
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's straight-set record makes a two-set finish more likely.
- Medvedev has 10 straight-set wins in 14 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bublik has been beaten in straight sets in two of six hard best-of-3 matches.
- Medvedev won his quarter-final 6-4 6-4.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Medvedev's strong starts and straight-set record make a 2-0 win his most likely exact score.
- Medvedev has 10 straight-set wins in 14 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bublik lost 5 of 6 first sets in that format.
- Medvedev won his quarter-final 6-4 6-4.
BetBugs · Set Bettingnot gradableDaniil Medvedev 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bublik's serve makes tiebreaks frequent, and he has had one in most recent hard-court matches.
- Bublik had a tiebreak in 5 of 6 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Medvedev had 3 tiebreak matches in 14 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Bublik averages 15.4 aces per hard match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players serve with power, and their combined ace rate sits above the line.
- Bublik averages 15.4 aces per hard match; Medvedev averages 11.1.
- The combined average is 26.5, above the 24.5 line.
- Bublik had 139 aces in 9 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 24.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits just under the line, and Medvedev rarely doubles.
- Medvedev averages 3.2 double faults per hard match.
- Bublik averages 4.1, making a combined 7.3.
- Medvedev has 10 straight-set wins in 14 hard best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

6-1 (7 meetings)

L6-3 7-6(4)Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19Jun 22, 2025

W7-6(3) 6-4Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19Apr 30, 2024

W6-4 6-2Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19Mar 1, 2023

W4-6 6-3 6-4Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19Aug 10, 2021

W6-4 7-6(8)Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19Jul 24, 2021

W6-3 6-3 7-5Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19May 31, 2021

W6-4 6-0Daniil Medvedev#5vAlexander Bublik#19Sep 20, 2016

Daniil Medvedev dominates (7 meetings)7 total meetings

Previous match context available

Daniil Medvedev

13W 2L

6-4 6-4#98Terence Atmane

6-2 6-1#109Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 1-6 6-3#15Tommy Paul

6-4 7-5#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#119Dalibor Svrcina

4-6 6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

7-5 5-3 def.#12Novak Djokovic

7-6(4) 6-3#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#58Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 6-2#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 6-4#22Andrey Rublev

7-5 6-4#70Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-6(6) 6-3#110Valentin Royer

Alexander Bublik

8W 7L

4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#25Karen Khachanov

7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(1)#2Alexander Zverev

6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)#17Brandon Nakashima

6-4 7-6(4)#72Tomas Machac

6-4 7-6(5)#16Jakub Mensik

6-2 6-3#11Rafael Jodar

6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#15Tommy Paul

6-3 6-1 6-1#79Adrian Mannarino

6-4 6-2 3-6 6-1#216Jeff Wolf

6-4 7-6(6)#46Quentin Halys

6-3 6-4#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-3 6-2#80Alex Molcan

6-3 7-5#71Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)#46Quentin Halys

7-6(1) 6-4 6-4#14Taylor Fritz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniil MedvedevMedvedev

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Alexander BublikBublikAB

Daniil Medvedev carries the stronger recent form — Alexander Bublik's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In64.1%+2.0pp66.1%

1st Serve Won80.0%+1.4pp78.6%

2nd Serve Won48.7%+1.9pp50.6%

Aces / Match11.1+2.213.3

Double Faults / Match3.20.8 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.6%+9.1pp31.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.3%+7.5pp40.8%

Break Pts Saved75.4%+8.7pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.9%+3.3pp50.6%

Serve · 2–3

64.1%1st Serve In+2.0pp66.1%

80.0%1st Serve Won+1.4pp78.6%

48.7%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp50.6%

11.1Aces / Match+2.213.3

3.2Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer4.0

Return · 1–0

40.6%Return Pts Won+9.1pp31.5%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp40.8%

75.4%Break Pts Saved+8.7pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won+3.3pp50.6%

Daniil Medvedev

Alexander Bublik

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev 2-0

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 1 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev

Alexander Bublik

Stat Battle