ChinaATP BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Novak Djokovic #5Serbia2Daniil Medvedev #6Russia0

Sets 7-5 · 5-3Mon 5 Oct 2026, 11:25 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNovak Djokovic · 1 places

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

Reached world No. 1 on July 4, 2011. ATP and ITF list him as a right-handed player with a two-handed backhand; ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #1 · 2011
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 19:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev brings the stronger hard-court run — 11-4 in his last 15, nine of 11 best-of-three hard matches won in straight sets — against a Djokovic who is 32-0 in Beijing but has needed three sets twice this week.

Medvedev is the likelier winner, but Djokovic's record here and 5-1 head-to-head lead keep it close. No quoted price is worthwhile: 1.65 on Medvedev, 1.60 for the first set, 1.55 on straight sets and 2.40 on a 2-0 win all ask too much.

Context

Zverev entered as the second seed and became the top seed once Jannik Sinner withdrew, so Djokovic's three-set win removed the highest-ranked player in his path to the final. That matters for this semifinal because Djokovic has needed three sets in two of his three Beijing matches and played the quarterfinal the day before facing Medvedev, so his recovery is the live question attached to him. His unbeaten Beijing career is the strongest single-event record in the Open Era, but it draws on six separate visits rather than describing his current level.
- Djokovic defeated Alexander Zverev 4-6 6-4 6-4 in the China Open quarterfinals .
- The win set up a semifinal against Daniil Medvedev and was Djokovic's second three-set victory of the week.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:13 · Europe/BucharestSky Sportswww.skysports.com · 4 Oct 2026
Djokovic has never lost a match in Beijing across six appearances and won the title every time he has played there, a record unmatched at any other tour-level event. It matters for this semifinal because it is the same court and Djokovic is the only former Beijing champion left in a draw missing defending champion Jannik Sinner. The limitation is the time span: the record is built across six separate visits, so it describes a career-long pattern rather than how Djokovic is playing now.
- Djokovic won the title in all six of his previous Beijing appearances.
- His Beijing record stands at 32-0, ahead of Rafael Nadal's 31-0 at the French Open as the best single-event start in the Open Era.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:13 · Europe/BucharestSky Sportswww.skysports.com · 4 Oct 2026Tennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026
Sinner, the defending champion, has not played since Wimbledon and did not enter the 2026 China Open, so the event is being played without its title holder and Zverev was moved to the top seeding. It matters to this semifinal because both the defending champion and the top seed are now out of the event, which leaves the title open among the remaining field. The caveat is that this is a field-level fact and does not itself change the conditions of the Djokovic-Medvedev match.
- Sinner, the defending champion, withdrew from the 2026 China Open without having played since Wimbledon.
- Zverev became the top seed in Sinner's absence.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:13 · Europe/BucharestTennis Up To Datetennisuptodate.com · 4 Oct 2026
All six meetings were played between 2021 and 2023, so the series describes two players at an earlier stage than the ones meeting in Beijing. Three of the six were completed in three sets, and one Djokovic win came when Medvedev retired at 0-0 in the third in October 2022. It is the clearest point in Djokovic's favour, but it is three years old and says nothing about current hard-court form.
- 2023-09-10 US Open semifinal: Djokovic won 6-3 7-6(5) 6-3.
- 2023-03-03 Dubai: Medvedev's only win in the series, 6-4 6-4.
- Series 5-1 to Djokovic over six meetings from 2021-11-07 to 2023-09-10; three were completed in three sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

−5.5ppshort

Medvedev has started hard-court matches strongly and Djokovic has been slow out of the blocks in Beijing.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.55fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 64.5%

−8.5ppshort

Medvedev has been finishing hard-court matches in straight sets, while Djokovic's three-set grind this week is the main counterweight.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

−5.6ppshort

Medvedev's second-set record on hard is solid and his return pressure tends to grow as the match settles.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Daniil Medvedev

1.65fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 60.6%

−6.6ppshort

Medvedev brings the larger and stronger hard-court sample, with better serving and returning numbers and a habit of closing matches without extra sets.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Daniil Medvedev 2-0

2.40fair 3.13

BetBugs 32% · Market 41.7%

−9.7ppshort

Medvedev's most common hard-court result is a straight-sets win, and he has been closing sets efficiently in Beijing.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Medvedev brings the larger and stronger hard-court sample, with better serving and returning numbers and a habit of closing matches without extra sets.
- Hard-court record 11-4 in last 15, winning 72.2% of sets and 55.6% of games
- 80.1% first-serve points won and 38.6% return points won on hard
- Led 9-2 in first sets and 7-4 in second sets across 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets on hard trend past nine games, and Medvedev has taken several openers to tiebreaks.
- Medvedev's set1 average is 11.18 total games with 3 tiebreaks in 11 matches
- Djokovic's set1 average is 9.25 total games
- Djokovic's Beijing opening sets finished 4-6 against both Zverev and Bu
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this window have regularly gone past nine games for both players, with several tiebreaks.
- Djokovic's set2 average is 11.5 total games with 2 tiebreaks in 4 matches
- Medvedev's set2 average is 10.45 total games with 3 tiebreaks in 11
- Medvedev's set2 games lost average is 4.64
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's recent hard-court matches have been short and his straight-set pattern keeps the match total down.
- Medvedev's hard-court matches average 23.1 games
- Djokovic's hard-court matches average 27.8 games
- Medvedev's most recent Beijing wins were 13-9, 12-7 and 12-6 in games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 25.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Medvedev has started hard-court matches strongly and Djokovic has been slow out of the blocks in Beijing.
- 9 first-set wins from 11 hard-court matches
- Set1 games won average 6.09 against 5.09 lost
- Djokovic lost the opening set to Zverev and to Bu Yunchaokete this week
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Medvedev has been finishing hard-court matches in straight sets, while Djokovic's three-set grind this week is the main counterweight.
- 9 of Medvedev's 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches ended 2-0 either way
- Medvedev's setEvidence average is 2.18 sets per match
- Djokovic's four hard-court matches averaged 2.75 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Medvedev's second-set record on hard is solid and his return pressure tends to grow as the match settles.
- 7 second-set wins from 11 hard-court matches
- Set2 games won average 5.82 against 4.64 lost
- 3 tiebreaks in 11 second sets shows he competes to the end of the set
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two strong servers facing quality returners often produce at least one set decided by a tiebreak.
- Medvedev: 5 of 11 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Djokovic: 2 of 4 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Medvedev averages 11.9 aces per match on hard, Djokovic 8.4
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two elite returners tend to blunt each other's ace count, keeping the match total near the combined average.
- Combined hard-court averages of 8.4 and 11.9 aces per match sit at 20.3
- Djokovic's return points won is 33.8% on hard, Medvedev's 38.6%
- Medvedev's recent Beijing wins came without a heavy ace count
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double-fault rates combine to around nine per match, just above the line.
- Medvedev averages 4.5 double faults per hard-court match
- Djokovic averages 4.4 double faults per match on hard
- Combined average of 8.9 sits just above the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Daniil Medvedev: 8/13 recent winner projections matched

8 of 13 comparable winner projections favouring Daniil Medvedev matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Daniil Medvedev13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#74Jan-Lennard Struff3-0#9Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·78%

Missed

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#74Jan-Lennard Struff3-0#9Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

78%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#84Daniel Merida1-3#9Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·92%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#84Daniel Merida1-3#9Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

92%probability

Daniil Medvedev won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#60Marin Cilic0-3#9Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#60Marin Cilic0-3#9Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

72%probability

Daniil Medvedev won

Matched

19 Jun·ATP Halle

#81Daniel Altmaier2-1#7Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·78%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#81Daniel Altmaier2-1#7Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

78%probability

Daniel Altmaier won

Missed

17 Jun·ATP Halle

#53Terence Atmane0-2#7Daniil Medvedev

BetBugsDaniil Medvedev to win·82%

Matched

17 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#53Terence Atmane0-2#7Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

82%probability

Daniil Medvedev won

Matched

Head-to-Head

10-5 (15 meetings)

W6-3 7-6(5) 6-3Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Sep 10, 2023

L6-4 6-4Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Mar 3, 2023

W6-3 6-4Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Jan 7, 2023

W6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(2)Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Nov 18, 2022

W4-6 7-6(6) 0-0 ret.Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Oct 8, 2022

W4-6 6-3 6-3Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Nov 7, 2021

L6-4 6-4 6-4Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Sep 12, 2021

W7-5 6-2 6-2Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Feb 21, 2021

L6-3 6-3Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Nov 18, 2020

W6-1 5-7 6-4Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Jan 11, 2020

L3-6 6-3 6-3Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Aug 17, 2019

L6-3 4-6 6-2Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Apr 19, 2019

W6-4 6-7(5) 6-2 6-3Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Jan 21, 2019

W6-4 6-4Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Jun 30, 2017

W3-6 6-4 6-1 1-0 ret.Novak Djokovic#11vDaniil Medvedev#6Feb 3, 2017

15 total meetings

Previous match context available

Novak Djokovic

10W 5L

4-6 6-4 6-4#2Alexander Zverev 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2#104Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 7-6(2)#49Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1#45Mariano Navone

2-6 6-4 6-4#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 6-4 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

7-6(10) 3-6 6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#5Felix Auger Aliassime

7-6(6) 6-3 3-6 6-3#84Roman Safiullin

7-5 6-4 1-6 7-6(4)#33Arthur Rinderknech

6-3 6-4 6-2#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4#111Yibing Wu

4-6 4-6 6-3 7-5 7-5#29Joao Fonseca

6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3#105Valentin Royer

5-7 7-5 6-1 6-4#107Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

2-6 6-2 6-4#95Dino Prizmic

Daniil Medvedev

11W 4L

7-6(4) 6-3#22Francisco Cerundolo 6-4 6-3#59Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-5 6-4#24Andrey Rublev

7-5 6-4#84Roman Safiullin

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#100Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-6(6) 6-3#105Valentin Royer

7-6(1) 6-4 7-6(6)#8Frances Tiafoe

6-4 6-4 6-4#33Arthur Rinderknech

6-1 6-3 7-5#409Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 6-2 6-4#87Hugo Gaston

7-5 6-3#103Martin Damm

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1#17Brandon Nakashima

6-4 7-5#88Marco Trungelliti

6-3 7-6(5)#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NDNovak DjokovicDjokovic

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Daniil MedvedevMedvedevDM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In67.1%+6.3pp60.8%

1st Serve Won75.2%+4.9pp80.1%

2nd Serve Won54.6%+5.6pp49.0%

Aces / Match9.7+2.211.9

Double Faults / Match3.51.0 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.9%+4.7pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted39.2%—39.6%

Break Pts Saved71.8%+5.1pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.4%+1.3pp52.7%

Serve · 3–2

67.1%1st Serve In+6.3pp60.8%

75.2%1st Serve Won+4.9pp80.1%

54.6%2nd Serve Won+5.6pp49.0%

9.7Aces / Match+2.211.9

3.5Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

33.9%Return Pts Won+4.7pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

39.2%Break Pts Converted—39.6%

71.8%Break Pts Saved+5.1pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

51.4%Total Pts Won+1.3pp52.7%