ChinaATP BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Daniil Medvedev #6Russia2Pablo Carreno-Busta #66Spain0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Fri 2 Oct 2026, 07:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions9–190%

Edges5–271%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniil Medvedev · 60 places

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

Former world No. 1, with his career-high ranking reached in February 2022. His 2026 Dubai title was awarded by walkover after Tallon Griekspoor withdrew from the final; this was not a Medvedev fitness issue.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: #1 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 10 on 11 September 2017. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #66
Peak ranking: #10 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 01:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Medvedev arrives two days after winning Hangzhou; Carreno-Busta has already won two straight-set matches on this court.

Medvedev should win, most likely in straight sets — he has taken the opener in six of eight hard-court best-of-three matches in the current sample. The 1.22 price on him asks too much. Carreno-Busta to take the second set at 3.2, Carreno-Busta to take the opening set at 3.25, and straight sets at 1.4 are the quotes that hold up.

Context

Medvedev arrives in Beijing off a five-match title-winning week in Hangzhou, so this first round finds him in mid-event rhythm rather than starting cold. The title was his third of 2026 and his 22nd on hard courts, and it came with a straight-sets final win over Andrey Rublev. The counterweight is timing: the Hangzhou final finished, two days before this match, making this a back-to-back event load inside the same Chinese swing.
- Medvedev beat Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-4 in the Hangzhou Open final .
- It was his 24th career title and his third of 2026, after wins in Brisbane and Dubai.
- The title was his 22nd on hard courts, matching the totals of John McEnroe, Michael Chang and Stefan Edberg.
- Medvedev has now won 24 tour-level titles across 23 different cities.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Carreno Busta is in the main draw as a qualifier, so his Beijing week began with two extra matches while Medvedev's began after a five-match title run. The wins over Yi Zhou and Adrian Mannarino ended a near-month gap without a completed match, which gives him match sharpness but also a heavier early-week load than a direct entrant carries. That matters most in a first round that immediately pairs a qualifier with the No. 6 seed.
- Carreno Busta beat Yi Zhou 7-5 6-3 in the Beijing qualifying first round on 28 September 2026.
- He beat Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-4 in the qualifying final round to reach the main draw.
- The Beijing main draw places Medvedev against Carreno Busta in the first round.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Taking six of eight opening sets points to a player who has started matches well in this window, and that is the part of his hard-court game that has travelled. The even second-set split explains why a match can stay live after he takes the opener. Eight matches over roughly eight weeks is a recent-form snapshot rather than a settled pattern.
- Medvedev won the first set in six of eight completed hard-court best-of-three matches between 5 August and 29 September 2026.
- He split second sets 4-4 across the same eight-match sample.
- First sets averaged 11.25 total games with two tiebreaks; second sets averaged 11.125 with three.
Hangzhou and Beijing are different venues, so Medvedev's comment describes the conditions in which he won last week rather than the National Tennis Center courts directly. Because both events sit in the same hard-court swing in the same two-week window, his read of quick courts and fast balls is still the most specific condition note attached to this fixture. It is a player's impression rather than a measured comparison between the two venues.
- After the Hangzhou final, Medvedev said the courts and balls felt like a flashback to 2019-2020-2021.
- The comment came in a post-match interview conducted in Hangzhou .
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:07 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Medvedev's higher ranking and stronger recent hard-court results make him the clear favorite.
- Medvedev is ranked 6 and has won 8 of 12 hard-court matches in the current sample.
- Medvedev won the Hangzhou title with a 7-5 6-4 final win over Andrey Rublev.
- Carreno-Busta is ranked 66 and has a 3-3 hard-court record in the current sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance80%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages are at or above 10 games, so a longer opening set is likely.
- Medvedev's first sets average 11.25 total games on hard.
- Carreno-Busta's first sets average 10.0 total games on hard.
- Over 9.5 games requires at least a 6-4 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Medvedev's recent hard-court wins have often come by four or more games, enough to clear this margin.
- Medvedev's recent hard-court matches include game margins of +4, +4, +5, +4 and +6.
- He has won 8 of 12 hard-court matches in this sample.
- Carreno-Busta has no serve or return metrics available.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaniil Medvedev -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Medvedev's recent straight-set wins were all 22 games or fewer, and Carreno-Busta's average is below the line.
- Medvedev's hard-court best-of-three matches average 24.4 total games.
- Carreno-Busta's hard-court best-of-three matches average 20.8 total games.
- Medvedev's recent straight-set wins produced 22, 22 and 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's longer second sets make over 9.5 games the more likely outcome.
- Medvedev's second sets average 11.1 total games on hard.
- Carreno-Busta's second sets average 9.2 total games on hard.
- Medvedev has won four of eight second sets in this sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' hard-court best-of-three samples.
- Medvedev has two three-set matches in eight hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Carreno-Busta has one three-set match in five hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Both players have recent three-set matches on hard.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's strong first-set record and higher ranking make him the likely first-set winner.
- Medvedev has won the first set in six of eight hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Carreno-Busta has won the first set in four of five hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Medvedev is ranked 6; Carreno-Busta is ranked 66.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Medvedev's overall strength makes him the likely second-set winner despite an even second-set record.
- Medvedev has won the second set in four of eight hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Carreno-Busta has won the second set in three of five hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Medvedev has a 54.3% hard-court games-won rate in the current sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaniil MedvedevEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Medvedev's recent straight-set wins and higher level point to a likely 2-0 win.
- Medvedev's hard-court best-of-three set evidence includes four 2-0 wins in eight matches.
- He has won his last four completed hard-court matches, three in straight sets.
- Carreno-Busta has lost one of five hard-court best-of-three matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonDaniil Medvedev 2-0Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Carreno-Busta's matches rarely feature tiebreaks, and he may not hold serve enough to force one.
- Medvedev's hard-court best-of-three matches have featured a tiebreak in four of eight.
- Carreno-Busta's hard-court best-of-three matches have featured a tiebreak in one of five.
- Medvedev averages 12.3 aces per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

5-2 (7 meetings)

W6-2 7-6(3)Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Nov 28, 2021

W6-1 6-1Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Aug 20, 2021

L6-2 7-6(5)Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Jul 29, 2021

W3-6 6-3 6-2Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Jun 25, 2021

W6-2 6-2Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Oct 30, 2018

L6-1 7-5Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Mar 12, 2018

W6-3 6-3Daniil Medvedev#6vPablo Carreno-Busta#66Oct 19, 2017

7 total meetings

Previous match context available

Daniil Medvedev

10W 5L

7-5 6-4#24Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-4#84Roman Safiullin 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#100Chak Lam Coleman Wong 7-6(6) 6-3#105Valentin Royer

7-6(1) 6-4 7-6(6)#8Frances Tiafoe

6-4 6-4 6-4#33Arthur Rinderknech

6-1 6-3 7-5#409Sebastian Gorzny

6-4 6-2 6-4#87Hugo Gaston

7-5 6-3#103Martin Damm

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1#17Brandon Nakashima

6-4 7-5#88Marco Trungelliti

6-3 7-6(5)#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(4) 7-6(5) 7-5#59Jan-Lennard Struff

3-6 6-3 7-5 6-2#42Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-1 6-2 6-4#78Marin Cilic

Pablo Carreno-Busta

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#81Adrian Mannarino 7-5 6-3#273Yi Zhou

6-1 7-6(5) 4-6 6-2#23Jiri Lehecka

6-4 3-0 ret.#56Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(5) 6-1#24Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#75Tomas Machac

1-6 7-5 6-2#105Valentin Royer

6-3 4-6 6-2#43Luca Van Assche

6-1 6-3#141Vilius Gaubas

3-6 7-5 7-5#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-4 6-2#171Matej Dodig

3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4#13Rafael Jodar

6-3 7-6(7) ret.#46Denis Shapovalov

4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2#13Rafael Jodar

7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniil MedvedevMedvedev

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-BustaPC

Daniil Medvedev carries the stronger recent form — Pablo Carreno-Busta's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.3%+5.3pp65.6%

1st Serve Won78.2%+10.5pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won47.6%+3.0pp50.6%

Aces / Match12.4+8.93.5

Double Faults / Match5.32.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.0%—39.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.3%+7.9pp38.4%

Break Pts Saved62.7%+4.2pp58.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.2%+1.7pp50.5%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 7 vs 5

Winners / Match7/15 · 5/1533.9+1.335.2

Unforced Errors / Match7/15 · 5/1527.110.1 fewer37.2

Net Pts Won7/15 · 5/1565.5%—65.0%

Serve · 2–3

60.3%1st Serve In+5.3pp65.6%

78.2%1st Serve Won+10.5pp67.7%

47.6%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp50.6%

12.4Aces / Match+8.93.5

5.3Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.0%Return Pts Won—39.3%

Pressure · 2–0

46.3%Break Pts Converted+7.9pp38.4%

62.7%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp58.5%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.5%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 7 vs 5

33.9Winners7/15 · 5/15+1.335.2

27.1Unforced Errors7/15 · 5/1510.1 fewer37.2

65.5%Net Pts Won7/15 · 5/15—65.0%

Daniil Medvedev

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Daniil Medvedev 2-0

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev -3.5

Under 22.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Stat Battle