AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Norbert Gombos #424Slovakia0Olle Wallin #407Sweden2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOlle Wallin · 17 places

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

ATP records list a career-high ranking of No. 80 in October 2017. The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 424, as a 193 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #424
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Olle Wallin

Sweden

The Swedish right-hander reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in July 2026. No reliable public source identified a declared preferred surface.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #368 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Gombos is in excellent form and holds a clay H2H win over Wallin, making him the likely winner, but the odds offer no value.

The over 21.5 total games is the best betting angle, as both players' recent matches have been competitive. Wallin's tendency to play three-setters adds uncertainty, but Gombos's straight-set ability keeps the 2-0 outcome plausible.

Context

Gombos, 35, is a veteran Slovak ranked 369 and has played over 1,000 career matches, with clay his most successful surface.
His 80% win rate in the last 15 clay matches is backed by a 58.6% games-won percentage and a 72.7% break-point save rate. Wallin's 71.4% win rate is solid but slightly lower, and his break-point save rate is only 65.6%. Gombos also won their only previous meeting on clay in June, which adds confidence.
- Gombos last 15 on clay: 12-3 record, 58.6% games won, 72.7% break points saved.
- Wallin last 14 on clay: 10-4 record, 55.3% games won, 65.6% break points saved.
- Gombos beat Wallin 6-4 6-4 on clay in June 2026.
Wallin, 24, is a right-hander from Sweden ranked 414, with a career first-serve percentage of 58%.
In recent clay matches, Wallin averages 5.9 aces per match and wins 73.1% of first-serve points, compared to Gombos' 4.9 aces and 74.7% first-serve points won. However, Wallin's second-serve points won is only 47.1% versus Gombos' 54.8%, and Wallin double-faults 2.6 times per match to Gombos' 2.2. This could give Gombos more opportunities on return.
- Wallin clay last 14: 5.9 aces/match, 73.1% first-serve points won, 47.1% second-serve points won, 2.6 double faults/match.
- Gombos clay last 15: 4.9 aces/match, 74.7% first-serve points won, 54.8% second-serve points won, 2.2 double faults/match.
The two players met once before, in a Challenger event on clay in June 2026.
Gombos won 6-4 6-4, converting 67% of break points while Wallin failed to convert any. Gombos also won 85% of first-serve points in that match. This suggests Gombos can handle Wallin's serve and exploit his second serve, which aligns with the current stats.
- June 2026: Gombos def. Wallin 6-4 6-4 on clay.
- Gombos converted 67% of break points; Wallin converted 0%.
- Gombos won 85% of first-serve points in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Norbert Gombos

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Gombos has stronger recent form and a direct clay H2H win, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Gombos has stronger recent form and a direct clay H2H win, giving him a clear edge in this matchup.
- Last 15 overall record: Gombos 12-3 (80%) vs Wallin 10-5 (66.7%)
- Last 15 clay record: Gombos 12-3 (80%) vs Wallin 10-4 (71.4%)
- H2H: Gombos won their only meeting 6-4 6-4 on clay in June 2026
- Gombos has won 8 of his last 9 matches, including a 6-0 6-2 win in the previous round
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNorbert GombosEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average above 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match.
- Gombos last 15 average total games per match: 21.6
- Wallin last 15 average total games per match: 24.3
- Both players have played several three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets tend to be competitive, averaging around 10 games.
- Gombos average first set games in last 15: 9.8
- Wallin average first set games in last 15: 10.1
- H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been competitive, with averages near 10 games.
- Gombos average second set games in last 15: 9.4
- Wallin average second set games in last 15: 9.8
- H2H second set was 6-4 (10 games)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos's strong first-set record and recent dominance make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Gombos first set win conversion career: 84%
- Gombos won the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches
- Wallin lost the first set in 6 of his last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNorbert GombosEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Norbert Gombos has been highly reliable when projected to win

Norbert Gombos has fulfilled 8 of 9 recent win predictions, a sample size of 9. His average estimated probability was 62.4%, with an expected 5.6 fulfilled predictions, so he exceeded expectation by 2.4 wins. The only miss came at a 55% probability, while his matched predictions averaged 63.4%, indicating stronger performance in higher-confidence matches.

Recent evidence for Norbert Gombos9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos0-2#160Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·55%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos0-2#160Gonzalo Bueno

Norbert Gombos to win

55%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Missed

30 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#225Franco Roncadelli0-2#423Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#225Franco Roncadelli0-2#423Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-4Norbert Gombos#369vOlle Wallin#414Jun 16, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Norbert Gombos

12W 3L

6-0 6-2—Alexander Wagner 6-4 6-3#198Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-3 6-3#283Sandro Kopp

7-6(9) 6-3#592Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 7-5#671Andrea De Marchi

6-4 6-2#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 4-6 6-2#313Radu Mihai Papoe

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#279Sean Cuenin

4-6 6-1 6-4#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 6-1#606Andrew Paulson

7-6(1) 6-3—Jiri Cizek

6-3 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

4-6 6-1 6-1#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 7-5#271Franco Roncadelli

6-1 4-6 6-2#780Matyas Cerny

Olle Wallin

10W 5L

7-5 6-2—Matthias Ujvary 6-4 3-6 6-4#424Johan Nikles

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)#894Andrea Colombo

4-6 6-0 6-3#893Niccolo Catini 5-7 6-2 6-3#406Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#809Niklas Guttau

6-2 1-6 7-5—Christopher Papa

6-1 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-4 7-5#76Jan Choinski

6-3 1-6 6-1#209Roberto Carballes Baena

3-6 6-3 6-2#201Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(9) 6-3#443Matthew William Donald

4-6 6-2 6-2—Vincent Dullinger

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#75Valentin Royer

6-4 6-1#682Samir Hamza Reguig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NGNorbert GombosGombos

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Olle WallinWallinOW

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Olle Wallin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In57.2%+1.6pp58.8%

1st Serve Won74.7%+2.4pp72.3%

2nd Serve Won54.8%+8.6pp46.2%

Aces / Match4.9+0.85.7

Double Faults / Match2.20.6 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.2%—41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.5%+13.4pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved72.7%+8.2pp64.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.0%+2.7pp51.3%

Serve · 3–2

57.2%1st Serve In+1.6pp58.8%

74.7%1st Serve Won+2.4pp72.3%

54.8%2nd Serve Won+8.6pp46.2%

4.9Aces / Match+0.85.7

2.2Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.2%Return Pts Won—41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

51.5%Break Pts Converted+13.4pp38.1%

72.7%Break Pts Saved+8.2pp64.5%

Points · 1–0

54.0%Total Pts Won+2.7pp51.3%