ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Thiago Seyboth Wild #202Brazil2Norbert Gombos #424Slovakia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Wed 2 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 222 places

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 58 in May 2024. Official ITF data lists clay and hard courts as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

ATP records list a career-high ranking of No. 80 in October 2017. The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 424, as a 193 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #424
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 22:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Gombos has a slight edge on clay with better serve and return metrics, making him a value bet at 2.60 to win the match.

The match is expected to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and under 4.5 double faults also offering value.

Context

Gombos, 35, is a veteran clay-court grinder who has spent most of his career on the surface and is currently ranked 369.
His 86.7% win rate over the last 15 matches, all on clay, is backed by a 74.3% sets-won rate and a 60.2% games-won rate. Seyboth Wild's 76.9% clay win rate over 13 matches is also strong, but Gombos has been slightly more dominant in sets and games. This suggests Gombos enters with a marginal form edge, though both are in good shape.
- Gombos last 15: 13-2 record (86.7%), 26-9 in sets, 192-127 in games, all on clay.
- Seyboth Wild last 13 on clay: 10-3 record (76.9%), 21-8 in sets, 156-117 in games.
- Gombos has won his last three matches in straight sets at this tournament, including a 6-3 6-3 win over Sandro Kopp.
Gombos, 35, is the lower-ranked player in this matchup and has already played four matches in Como this week.
He came through qualifying on August 30 and 31, then won his main-draw opener on September 1. This round-of-16 match is his fifth in four days, a heavier workload than Seyboth Wild faces. The extra matches could affect his legs late in a best-of-three clay contest.
- The Como draw records Gombos wins on August 30, August 31 and September 1, and lists the Seyboth Wild match for September 2.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 22:36 · Europe/BucharestComo Lake Challenger 2026 men's singles scoreswww.mykhel.com · 30 Aug 2026
Seyboth Wild, 26, is a Brazilian right-hander with a powerful serve and forehand, currently ranked 198.
In their only H2H, Seyboth Wild won 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1 on clay, but Gombos won the second set and had a higher first-serve win percentage (71% vs 76% for Seyboth Wild). Gombos's recent form is stronger than his ranking suggests, so the H2H edge for Seyboth Wild may be less decisive now.
- H2H: Seyboth Wild won 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1 on clay in April 2026.
- In that match, Seyboth Wild had 76% first-serve points won vs Gombos's 71%, but Gombos won the second set.
- Gombos has won 13 of 15 since then, while Seyboth Wild has won 10 of 13 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Gombos has a slightly stronger recent clay-court profile in serve and return metrics, giving him a narrow edge in this matchup.
- Gombos last 15 on clay: 13-2 record, 74.3% sets won, 60.2% games won
- Seyboth Wild last 15 on clay: 10-3 record, 72.4% sets won, 57.1% games won
- Gombos break points saved 75.3% vs Seyboth Wild 62.1% on clay
- Gombos return points won 42.3% vs Seyboth Wild 41.5% on clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNorbert GombosEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid serve numbers and break point saving ability, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Gombos average match duration 99.8 minutes on clay
- Seyboth Wild average match duration 91.8 minutes on clay
- Both players have high hold rates and break point save percentages
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set games averages are near or above 9.5, and their serve strengths make a tight opener likely.
- Gombos first set average games: 9.8 in last 15
- Seyboth Wild first set average games: 9.2 in last 15
- Both players have strong first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos has been slightly more reliable in opening sets recently, supported by his strong first-serve performance.
- Gombos won first set in 12 of last 15 matches
- Seyboth Wild won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
- Gombos first serve points won 73.7% on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNorbert GombosEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double fault rates, and their combined average is well below 4.5.
- Seyboth Wild averages 1.0 double faults per match on clay
- Gombos averages 2.2 double faults per match on clay
- Combined average double faults: 3.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed 8.5, making the over a reasonable expectation.
- Seyboth Wild averages 6.9 aces per match on clay
- Gombos averages 4.9 aces per match on clay
- Combined average aces per match: 11.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Norbert Gombos has been highly reliable when projected to win

Norbert Gombos has fulfilled 8 of 9 recent win predictions, a strong 89% success rate. His average estimated probability was 62.4%, yet he won 8 matches, exceeding the expected 5.6 wins. The only miss came as a home favourite at 55% probability, while his successful predictions averaged 63.4%.

Recent evidence for Norbert Gombos9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos0-2#160Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·55%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos0-2#160Gonzalo Bueno

Norbert Gombos to win

55%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Missed

30 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#225Franco Roncadelli0-2#423Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#225Franco Roncadelli0-2#423Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-7(5) 6-1Thiago Seyboth Wild#198vNorbert Gombos#369Apr 28, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Thiago Seyboth Wild

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#263Martin Krumich

6-4 6-4#146Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-2 6-1#224Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-2#186Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-4#401Andrej Martin

6-4 6-3#256Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-4 6-3#413Dylan Dietrich

6-1 7-6(1)#276Philip Henning

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#208Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#175Zdenek Kolar

5-7 6-4 6-3#554Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-3 7-5#509Peter Makk

6-4 6-3#134Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-4#726Vincent Marysko

6-1 6-2—Oliver Majdandzic

Norbert Gombos

13W 2L

6-3 6-3#283Sandro Kopp

7-6(9) 6-3#592Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 7-5#671Andrea De Marchi

6-4 6-2#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 4-6 6-2#313Radu Mihai Papoe

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#279Sean Cuenin

4-6 6-1 6-4#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 6-1#606Andrew Paulson

7-6(1) 6-3—Jiri Cizek

6-3 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

4-6 6-1 6-1#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 7-5#271Franco Roncadelli

6-1 4-6 6-2#780Matyas Cerny

7-6(6) 6-1#641Tomasz Berkieta

6-0 2-0 ret.#682Samir Hamza Reguig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TWThiago Seyboth WildWild

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Norbert GombosGombosNG

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Thiago Seyboth Wild's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.4%+9.8pp56.6%

1st Serve Won72.8%+0.9pp73.7%

2nd Serve Won53.7%+2.5pp56.2%

Aces / Match7.1+2.24.9

Double Faults / Match1.11.1 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.5%+0.8pp42.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.7%+5.3pp52.0%

Break Pts Saved65.3%+10.0pp75.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won54.0%—54.6%

Serve · 3–2

66.4%1st Serve In+9.8pp56.6%

72.8%1st Serve Won+0.9pp73.7%

53.7%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp56.2%

7.1Aces / Match+2.24.9

1.1Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won+0.8pp42.3%

Pressure · 0–2

46.7%Break Pts Converted+5.3pp52.0%

65.3%Break Pts Saved+10.0pp75.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

54.0%Total Pts Won—54.6%