CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Franco Roncadelli #2250Norbert Gombos #423Slovakia2

Sets 5-7 · 5-7Thu 30 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFranco Roncadelli · 198 places

Franco Roncadelli

Reached a career-high No. 225 on 25 May 2026. All 13 listed singles finals have been on clay, supporting clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #225
Peak ranking: #225 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

Reached a career-high No. 80 on 2 October 2017. His listed singles titles are evenly split between hard and clay, so no single preferred surface is assigned.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 06:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Norbert Gombos' superior serve and recent clay form (10-5) give him a clear edge over Franco Roncadelli, despite the qualifier's extra workload.

Roncadelli's return game could steal a set, making Gombos 2-1 a value bet at 4.25, while the match is likely to go over 21.5 games.

Context

Gombos won 6-1, 4-6, 6-2 over Matyas Cerny on 28 July after two qualifying wins on 26–27 July.
- Roncadelli beat Jakub Nicod 6-3, 6-2 on 28 July with no prior matches in the tournament.
- Gombos had a rest day on 29 July, but his total on-site match count is higher.
Last 15 overall: Gombos first-serve points won 71.2% vs Roncadelli 58.5%.
- Gombos aces per match 4.1 vs Roncadelli 0.3.
- On clay, Gombos' first-serve points won remains 71.2% (15 matches tracked).
Roncadelli return points won on clay: 42.5% (14 matches).
- Gombos second-serve points won: 52.1% overall, leaving room for Roncadelli to attack.
- Roncadelli's break-point conversion rate is 52.8% in last 15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Gombos' superior recent form and serve dominance on clay give him a clear edge, despite Roncadelli's fresher legs.
- Last 15 overall record: Gombos 10-5 (66.7%) vs Roncadelli 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 on clay: Gombos 10-5 (66.7%) vs Roncadelli 7-7 (50%)
- Gombos holds a significant serve edge: 4.1 aces per match vs 0.3, and 71.2% first-serve points won vs 58.5%
- Gombos break-point save rate 64.3% vs Roncadelli 55.7% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli's return ability and both players' tendency for close matches point to a longer contest exceeding 21.5 games.
- Roncadelli's last 15 clay matches averaged 22.2 games; Gombos' averaged 19.2
- Both players have high deciding-set rates: Roncadelli 59% career, Gombos 53%
- Roncadelli's return points won 42.5% on clay suggests he can extend games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli's return game and clay-court tenacity should keep the match within a 3.5-game margin.
- Roncadelli's last 15 clay games won 49.5% vs Gombos 53.5%
- Roncadelli return points won 42.5% on clay, above Gombos' 40.9%
- Head-to-head absent, but Roncadelli's lefty serve and return could keep it close
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFranco Roncadelli +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli's return ability should prevent a quick first set, pushing it over 9.5 games.
- Roncadelli's last 15 clay sets average 9.4 games; Gombos' 9.0
- Gombos' first-serve dominance may be offset by Roncadelli's return (42.5% points won)
- Recent H2H absent, but both players have shown tight opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Gombos' strong serving and early-set momentum from recent matches make him likely to take the opener.
- Gombos won first set in 10 of last 15 matches; Roncadelli in 7 of 15
- Gombos first-serve points won 71.2% vs Roncadelli 58.5% in recent window
- Roncadelli's first-set win conversion career 91%, but recent form shows vulnerability against stronger servers
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay-court dynamics and both players' history of three-set matches make Over 2.5 sets likely.
- Roncadelli 3-setters in 5 of last 15; Gombos in 4 of last 15
- Roncadelli deciding-set win rate 59% career; Gombos 53%
- Both players show resilience: Roncadelli comeback rate 22%, Gombos 21%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos' strong serving alone should push total aces over 5.5, with minimal contribution from Roncadelli.
- Gombos averages 4.1 aces per match in last 15; Roncadelli 0.3
- Gombos' first-serve points won 71.2% indicates high ace potential
- Roncadelli's low ace count (0.1 on clay) contributes minimally
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos' aggressive serving and low first-serve percentage make Over 3.5 double faults probable.
- Gombos averages 2.2 double faults per match in last 15; Roncadelli 0.7
- Gombos' first-serve percentage 58.7% suggests frequent second serves
- Combined average 2.9, but Gombos' high-risk serve can spike in pressure moments
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Norbert Gombos has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 7 matches where Norbert Gombos was predicted to win, he has won all 7. The average estimated probability was 63.6%, with an expected 4.5 wins, yet he delivered 7. The current prediction of 62% falls within the historical range of 58% to 78%, consistent with his past reliable projections.

Recent evidence for Norbert Gombos7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

20 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#675Amit Vales0-2#370Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#675Amit Vales0-2#370Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

6 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#364Norbert Gombos2-0#897Orlando Luz

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·65%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#364Norbert Gombos2-0#897Orlando Luz

Norbert Gombos to win

65%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

Franco Roncadelli

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#675Jakub Nicod

6-3 6-3#214Henri Squire

7-5 7-6(5)—Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-3#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 4-6 7-6(7)#304Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-1#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-3#267Michele Ribecai

6-3 6-4#244Andrej Nedic

4-6 6-2 6-4#277Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-2#121Dane Sweeny

6-2 7-5#107Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-2#653Peter Fajta

6-7(5) 6-2 6-3#233Maks Kasnikowski

7-5 2-6 6-3#282Juan Manuel La Serna

6-1 6-4#223Guido Ivan Justo

Norbert Gombos

10W 5L

6-1 4-6 6-2#700Matyas Cerny

7-6(6) 6-1#570Tomasz Berkieta

6-0 2-0 ret.#678Samir Hamza Reguig

6-1 6-3#324Dominic Stricker

4-3 ret.#279Filip Cristian Jianu

6-1 6-2#672Amit Vales

2-6 7-6(2) 7-5#580Alexander Ritschard

7-6(4) 6-2#216Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-3 6-3#124Sebastian Ofner

6-0 6-3#871Orlando Luz

7-5 6-4#704Marc Majdandzic

7-6(9) 6-1#190Elmer Moller

6-3 4-6 6-2#387Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(7) 6-4#756Manuel Mazza

6-4 6-2#116Dalibor Svrcina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FRFranco RoncadelliRoncadelli

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Norbert GombosGombosNG

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Franco Roncadelli's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In77.7%+19.0pp58.7%

1st Serve Won58.5%+12.7pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+1.0pp52.1%

Aces / Match0.3+3.84.1

Double Faults / Match0.71.5 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.5%—40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.8%+8.1pp44.7%

Break Pts Saved55.7%+8.6pp64.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+2.8pp52.1%

Serve · 2–3

77.7%1st Serve In+19.0pp58.7%

58.5%1st Serve Won+12.7pp71.2%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp52.1%

0.3Aces / Match+3.84.1

0.7Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer2.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.5%Return Pts Won—40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

52.8%Break Pts Converted+8.1pp44.7%

55.7%Break Pts Saved+8.6pp64.3%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.1%

Franco Roncadelli

Norbert Gombos

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Franco Roncadelli

Norbert Gombos

Stat Battle