AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Norbert Gombos #424Slovakia2Alexander Wagner #1348Austria0

Sets 6-0 · 6-2Sun 6 Sept 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNorbert Gombos · 924 places

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

ATP records list a career-high ranking of No. 80 in October 2017. The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 424, as a 193 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #424
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Alexander Wagner

Austria

ITF lists Wagner, 19, at No. 1,348 in its 20 July 2026 rankings, with a career-high No. 1,262 in February 2026. His ITF profile identifies clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #1348
Peak ranking: #1262 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Gombos is the clear favorite on form and ranking, but the odds are heavily skewed with no value on the match winner.

The best potential angles are under 21.5 total games and Gombos -3.5 game handicap, though confidence is only medium. Avoid backing Gombos at 1.05 or in straight-set markets.

Context

Gombos, 35, is a veteran Slovak ranked 369 and has played almost exclusively on clay this season.
His 12-3 record in the last 15 clay matches includes wins over players ranked inside the top 300, while Wagner's 8-7 record has come mostly against lower-ranked opponents. Gombos also holds better serve and return numbers in that sample, so he enters as the more reliable player on this surface.
- Gombos last 15 on clay: 12-3 record, 68.6% sets won, 57.9% games won.
- Wagner last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 55.6% sets won, 49.7% games won.
- Gombos has beaten opponents ranked 198, 233, 244, 271, 279, 283, 313 in this stretch.
- Wagner's wins have come mostly against unranked or 500+ ranked players.
Wagner, an Austrian without a current ATP ranking, has spent his recent schedule on clay Challenger and ITF events.
His last three losses came against Giovanni Oradini (637), Nikita Mashtakov (576), and Marlon Vankan (618), all in straight sets or with a lopsided final set. Gombos, despite his lower ranking, has been beating similar-level opponents, so Wagner may struggle to stay competitive if the match extends.
- Wagner lost 6-2 6-3 to Giovanni Oradini (rank 637) on Aug 27.
- Wagner lost 7-6(5) 4-6 6-0 to Nikita Mashtakov (rank 576) on Aug 21.
- Wagner lost 6-2 6-2 to Marlon Vankan (rank 618) on Jul 29.
- Gombos has beaten five players ranked 233-313 in the same period.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Norbert Gombos

1.05fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Gombos has a clear recent form and ranking edge on clay, with a much stronger win rate in the last 15 matches.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Norbert Gombos

1.10fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Gombos's superior first serve points won and overall form give him a strong edge in the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Norbert Gombos

1.10fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Gombos's strong second set performance and serve advantage make him the likely winner of set 2.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Norbert Gombos 2-0

1.18fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Despite Gombos's strong recent form, the odds imply an 84.7% chance of a straight-set win, which is far above the model's 58% estimate, making this a poor value bet.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.18fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

The odds imply an 84.7% chance of the match ending in straight sets, but the model estimates only 58%, making this a poor value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Gombos has a clear recent form and ranking edge on clay, with a much stronger win rate in the last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: Gombos 12-3 (80%) vs Wagner 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: Gombos 12-3 (80%) vs Wagner 8-7 (53.3%)
- Gombos ranking 369 vs Wagner unranked
- Gombos last 5: 4-1, Wagner last 5: 2-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos's dominance in games won percentage suggests a relatively comfortable straight-set win, keeping total games under the line.
- Gombos last 15 average games per match: 22.0 (330 games / 15 matches)
- Wagner last 15 average games per match: 22.7 (340 games / 15 matches)
- Gombos last 15 games won percentage: 57.9%
- Wagner last 15 games won percentage: 49.7%
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos's superior games won percentage and average games won per match support a handicap cover.
- Gombos last 15 games won percentage: 57.9%
- Wagner last 15 games won percentage: 49.7%
- Gombos last 15 average games won per match: 12.7
- Wagner last 15 average games won per match: 11.3
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNorbert Gombos -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Gombos's superior first serve points won and overall form give him a strong edge in the opening set.
- Gombos first set win conversion career: 84%
- Wagner first set win conversion career: 89%
- Gombos last 15 first serve points won: 73.9% vs Wagner 61.2%
- Gombos last 15 return points won: 40.6% vs Wagner 43.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Gombos's strong second set performance and serve advantage make him the likely winner of set 2.
- Gombos last 15 second set win rate: 73.3% (11 of 15 matches)
- Wagner last 15 second set win rate: 46.7% (7 of 15 matches)
- Gombos last 15 first serve points won: 73.9%
- Wagner last 15 first serve points won: 61.2%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Gombos's higher set win percentage and strong recent form make a straight-set victory likely.
- Gombos last 15 sets won percentage: 68.6%
- Wagner last 15 sets won percentage: 55.6%
- Gombos last 15 record: 12-3, with 8 straight-set wins
- Wagner last 15 record: 8-7, with 5 straight-set wins
BetBugs · Set BettingwonNorbert Gombos 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Gombos's dominance in sets won suggests a straight-set victory, keeping total sets under 2.5.
- Gombos last 15 straight-set wins: 8 of 12 wins
- Wagner last 15 straight-set wins: 5 of 8 wins
- Gombos last 15 sets won percentage: 68.6%
- Wagner last 15 sets won percentage: 55.6%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos's strong set win percentage reduces the likelihood of tight sets requiring tiebreaks.
- Gombos career tiebreak win percentage: 52%
- Wagner career tiebreak win percentage: 44%
- Gombos last 15 sets won percentage: 68.6%
- Wagner last 15 sets won percentage: 55.6%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is close to the line, but a straight-set match may reduce total double faults.
- Gombos last 15 double faults per match: 2.3
- Wagner last 15 double faults per match: 2.4
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.7
- Both players have similar double fault rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos's high ace rate pushes the combined total near the line, with a slight lean to over.
- Gombos last 15 aces per match: 4.9
- Wagner last 15 aces per match: 1.4
- Combined average aces per match: 6.3
- Gombos career aces: 4356 in 1078 matches (4.0 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The price on Gombos is far too short relative to his recent form and Wagner's competitive clay record.

Previous match context available

Norbert Gombos

12W 3L

6-4 6-3#198Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-3 6-3#283Sandro Kopp

7-6(9) 6-3#592Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 7-5#671Andrea De Marchi

6-4 6-2#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 4-6 6-2#313Radu Mihai Papoe

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#279Sean Cuenin

4-6 6-1 6-4#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 6-1#606Andrew Paulson

7-6(1) 6-3—Jiri Cizek

6-3 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

4-6 6-1 6-1#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 7-5#271Franco Roncadelli

6-1 4-6 6-2#780Matyas Cerny

7-6(6) 6-1#641Tomasz Berkieta

Alexander Wagner

8W 7L

6-2 6-3#637Giovanni Oradini

7-5 6-2—Adam Soukup

7-6(5) 4-6 6-0#576Nikita Mashtakov

7-5 7-6(7)#886Tomas Lanik

6-4 6-4—Luka Talan Lopatic

6-0 3-6 6-1#531Marcel Zielinski

6-1 2-0 ret.—Vitek Horak

6-2 6-2#618Marlon Vankan

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#401Andrej Martin

7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-2#767Aleksandr Braynin

7-6(5) 5-7 6-0#387Max Wiskandt

4-6 7-5 6-2#870Manuel Plunger

6-4 7-5#855Dominik Recek

6-2 6-4#554Matyas Fuele

6-1 6-2—Vaal Urankar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NGNorbert GombosGombos

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Alexander WagnerWagnerAW

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Alexander Wagner's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.3%+8.5pp65.8%

1st Serve Won73.9%+12.7pp61.2%

2nd Serve Won54.5%+6.1pp48.4%

Aces / Match4.9+3.51.4

Double Faults / Match2.3—2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.6%+2.4pp43.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.1%+4.7pp46.4%

Break Pts Saved74.2%+14.2pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.5%+3.5pp50.0%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

57.3%1st Serve In+8.5pp65.8%

73.9%1st Serve Won+12.7pp61.2%

54.5%2nd Serve Won+6.1pp48.4%

4.9Aces / Match+3.51.4

2.3Double Faults / Match—2.4

Return · 0–1

40.6%Return Pts Won+2.4pp43.0%

Pressure · 2–0

51.1%Break Pts Converted+4.7pp46.4%

74.2%Break Pts Saved+14.2pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

53.5%Total Pts Won+3.5pp50.0%

Norbert Gombos #424Slovakia2Alexander Wagner #1348Austria0

Player Profiles

Norbert Gombos

Alexander Wagner

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos 2-0

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Norbert Gombos @ 1.05

Norbert Gombos @ 1.10

Norbert Gombos

Alexander Wagner

Stat Battle