ItalyComo - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Norbert Gombos #424Slovakia2Sandro Kopp #280Austria0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 1 Sept 2026, 09:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSandro Kopp · 144 places

Norbert Gombos

Slovakia

ATP records list a career-high ranking of No. 80 in October 2017. The supplied structured profile lists him at No. 424, as a 193 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #424
Peak ranking: #80 · 2017
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Sandro Kopp

Austria

Austrian player, age 26. His available 2026 ITF record is concentrated on clay; a reliably dated career-high ranking was not confirmed against the supplied current ranking.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Gombos has a clear edge on clay with better recent form and break-point resilience, making him the likely winner.

Kopp's strong serve could keep sets tight, but Gombos is favored to take the match and possibly in straight sets. Betting angles favor Gombos on the moneyline and first set, with a lean towards over 21.5 total games.

Context

Gombos, 35, is a veteran clay-court specialist ranked 369, while Kopp, 28, is ranked 283 and also prefers clay.
Gombos has won 12 of his last 15 clay matches, including a current run of two straight wins in Como, while Kopp has won 9 of 15 and lost his most recent match. Gombos also holds a higher total points won percentage (53.6% vs 52.4%) and a better break point save rate (72.6% vs 62.3%), suggesting he is more reliable in key moments. However, Kopp's first serve percentage is much higher (68.8% vs 56.7%), which could keep him competitive if he serves well.
- Gombos last 15 clay record: 12-3 (80% win rate).
- Kopp last 15 clay record: 9-6 (60% win rate).
- Gombos total points won: 53.6% vs Kopp 52.4%.
- Gombos break points saved: 72.6% vs Kopp 62.3%.
Kopp, 28, is a right-hander with a solid first serve and a career first serve percentage of 68%.
Kopp's first serve in percentage of 68.8% is significantly higher than Gombos' 56.7%, and he wins 69.6% of first serve points compared to Gombos' 73.2%. While Gombos wins a higher percentage of first serve points when he gets them in, Kopp's ability to land more first serves could give him more free points and put pressure on Gombos' return game. This serving edge may help Kopp stay in rallies and avoid break points.
- Kopp first serve in: 68.8% vs Gombos 56.7%.
- Kopp first serve points won: 69.6% vs Gombos 73.2%.
- Kopp double faults per match: 1.4 vs Gombos 2.4.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos has stronger recent clay form and better break-point resilience, giving him the edge in a Bo3 match.
- Last 15 on clay: Gombos 12-3 (80%), Kopp 9-6 (60%)
- Gombos last 5: 4-1, including wins over Papoe (313) and Cuenin (279); Kopp last 5: 3-2, loss to Cretu (230)
- Gombos break points saved 72.6% vs Kopp 62.3% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay matchup with both players holding serve reasonably well suggests a longer match.
- Gombos average match duration 98.6 min, Kopp 97.2 min in last 15
- Gombos games won 58%, Kopp 54.2% in last 15
- Both players have similar return points won (~41% vs 40%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Serve and return stats are close enough to expect a tight first set with possible tiebreak.
- Gombos first serve in 56.7%, Kopp 68.8% in last 15
- Gombos break points converted 47.5%, Kopp 41% in last 15
- Both players have tiebreak win percentage around 52-53%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gombos's stronger first-serve performance and recent set dominance support taking the opening set.
- Gombos first-set win conversion career 84%, Kopp 85%
- Gombos last 15 first serve points won 73.2% vs Kopp 69.6%
- Gombos has won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNorbert GombosEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopp's strong second-serve discipline and Gombos's moderate double faults make under 3.5 slightly more likely.
- Gombos averages 2.4 double faults per match, Kopp 1.4 in last 15
- Combined average double faults 3.8
- Kopp's low double fault rate helps keep total under
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages sit right at the line, making over a coin-flip but slightly favored by Gombos's higher ace rate.
- Gombos averages 4.5 aces per match, Kopp 3.0 in last 15
- Combined average aces per match 7.5
- Clay surface typically reduces ace counts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Kopp's long odds may tempt a value play, but recent clay form and serve metrics strongly favor Gombos.

Prediction history

Norbert Gombos has been highly reliable when projected to win

Norbert Gombos has fulfilled 8 of 9 recent win projections, a strong 89% fulfilment rate. His average estimated probability was 62.4%, with an expected 5.6 fulfilled predictions, so he has outperformed expectation by 2.4 wins. The only miss came against Gonzalo Bueno at a 55% probability, while his successful predictions averaged 63.4%.

Recent evidence for Norbert Gombos9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos0-2#160Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·55%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos0-2#160Gonzalo Bueno

Norbert Gombos to win

55%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Missed

30 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#225Franco Roncadelli0-2#423Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#225Franco Roncadelli0-2#423Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-1#700Matyas Cerny

Norbert Gombos to win

62%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#423Norbert Gombos2-0#570Tomasz Berkieta

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

21 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

BetBugsNorbert Gombos to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#279Filip Cristian Jianu0-1#366Norbert Gombos

Norbert Gombos to win

58%probability

Norbert Gombos won

Matched

Previous match context available

Norbert Gombos

12W 3L

7-6(9) 6-3#592Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 7-5#671Andrea De Marchi

6-4 6-2#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 4-6 6-2#313Radu Mihai Papoe

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#279Sean Cuenin

4-6 6-1 6-4#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 6-1#606Andrew Paulson

7-6(1) 6-3—Jiri Cizek

6-3 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

4-6 6-1 6-1#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 7-5#271Franco Roncadelli

6-1 4-6 6-2#780Matyas Cerny

7-6(6) 6-1#641Tomasz Berkieta

6-0 2-0 ret.#682Samir Hamza Reguig

6-1 6-3#273Dominic Stricker

Sandro Kopp

9W 6L

6-3 7-5#230Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#263Martin Krumich

7-6(3) 6-4#410Mika Brunold

6-1 6-7(4) 6-1#373Eduardo Ribeiro

3-6 6-1 6-4#419Benjamin Hassan

6-4 6-1#547Luca Wiedenmann

6-1 6-1#364Sebastian Sorger

7-6(6) 6-3#364Sebastian Sorger

6-4 6-4#841Adrian Andreev

6-1 6-3#521Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-2—Leonardo Borrelli

6-2 6-1—Gabriel Sardo

6-0 6-4#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-4 6-4#286Pierre-Hugues Herbert

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NGNorbert GombosGombos

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Sandro KoppKoppSK

Norbert Gombos carries the stronger recent form — Sandro Kopp's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.7%+12.1pp68.8%

1st Serve Won73.2%+3.6pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won54.4%+1.2pp55.6%

Aces / Match4.5+1.53.0

Double Faults / Match2.41.0 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.6%+1.2pp40.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.5%+6.5pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved72.6%+10.3pp62.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+1.2pp52.4%

Serve · 2–3

56.7%1st Serve In+12.1pp68.8%

73.2%1st Serve Won+3.6pp69.6%

54.4%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp55.6%

4.5Aces / Match+1.53.0

2.4Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

41.6%Return Pts Won+1.2pp40.4%

Pressure · 2–0

47.5%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp41.0%

72.6%Break Pts Saved+10.3pp62.3%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+1.2pp52.4%

Norbert Gombos

Sandro Kopp

Quick Take

Context

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sandro Kopp @ 12.00

Norbert Gombos

Sandro Kopp

Stat Battle