Stefan Kozlov #295United States11 – 2Harry Wendelken #201United Kingdom2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Wendelken's H2H win and slightly better recent Hard-court form give him a modest edge, supported by ranking and surface record.

• Harry Wendelken won the only H2H meeting 6-1 3-6 6-4 on I.hard in Jan 2026.
• Wendelken's last-15 overall record is 33.3% (5-10), but his Hard-court record in that window is 50% (2-2) with 48.8% games won.
• Stefan Kozlov's last-15 Hard-court record is 33.3% (2-4) with 48.7% games won and 40.1% return points won.
• Wendelken has a higher career win percentage on Hard (108 wins) and a current ranking of 201 vs Kozlov's 295.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches average over 23 games, and their H2H went to 26 games, supporting a higher total games line.

• Kozlov's last-15 matches average 23.5 games per match (353 games / 15 matches).
• Wendelken's last-15 matches average 23.8 games per match (357 games / 15 matches).
• Their H2H match had 26 games (6-1 3-6 6-4).
• Both players have similar games won percentages around 46-50%, indicating competitive sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Kozlov's overall games won percentage is higher, and the H2H was close in total games, making +3.5 a reasonable handicap.

• Kozlov's last-15 games won percentage is 50.1%, Wendelken's is 46.2%.
• In their H2H, Kozlov won 13 games to Wendelken's 13 (6-1 3-6 6-4: Kozlov won 1+6+4=11, Wendelken won 6+3+6=15, actually Kozlov 11, Wendelken 15, so Kozlov lost by 4 games).
• Kozlov's Hard-court games won percentage is 48.7%, Wendelken's is 48.8%, nearly identical.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set is likely to be competitive given similar break point stats and average set lengths.

• Kozlov's average set games is 9.3, Wendelken's is 9.9.
• In H2H, the second set was 3-6 (9 games).
• Both players have similar break point conversion rates around 37-43%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 a solid statistical expectation.

• Kozlov averages 3.1 double faults per match in last 15, and 3.0 on Hard.
• Wendelken averages 3.3 double faults per match in last 15, and 3.3 on Hard.
• Combined average is 6.4 double faults per match on Hard.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Wendelken's strong ace count on Hard and Kozlov's moderate ace rate make over 7.5 a plausible but not high-confidence angle.

• Wendelken averages 3.9 aces per match in last 15, and 4.5 on Hard.
• Kozlov averages 1.7 aces per match in last 15, and 2.2 on Hard.
• Combined average on Hard is approximately 6.7 aces per match, but Wendelken's higher ace rate could push total over 7.5.