Matej Dodig #20111 – 2August Holmgren #1672

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Dodig's competitive losses and Holmgren's lack of dominant wins on clay make Dodig +1.5 games a strong value, covering a narrow defeat or a win.

• Dodig's recent losses have been close: 4-6 2-6 vs Kouame, 6-7 4-6 vs Schwaerzler, 6-7 3-6 vs Travaglia — all within 1.5 games on handicap.
• Holmgren's wins are often by narrow margins: 7-5 2-6 6-3, 6-4 6-4, 6-4 6-2 — rarely blowouts.
• Dodig's clay prowess suggests he will keep the match close even if he loses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Dodig's high-game matches on clay and Holmgren's competitive recent form points to a match exceeding 21.5 total games.

• Dodig's last 5 completed matches averaged 24.4 games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Holmgren's last 5 completed matches averaged 21.8 games, with 3 of 5 over 21.5.
• Both players have similar hold/break profiles, suggesting extended sets and possible tiebreaks.
• Dodig's 55% tiebreak win rate and Holmgren's 52% indicate close sets are likely.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players show a high frequency of 10+ game sets, driven by solid serving and few early breaks.

• Dodig's last 5 first sets: 1-4 (ret.), 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-3 — 4 of 5 had 10+ games.
• Holmgren's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6 — all 5 had 10+ games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 70%, making breaks less frequent early.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of three-set matches in Dodig's recent history and the competitive profile of both players make a deciding set slightly more likely than not.

• Dodig's last 10 matches: 6 went to three sets.
• Holmgren's last 10 matches: 5 went to three sets.
• Both have deciding-set win rates of 58%, indicating they are evenly matched in tight contests.
• Clay matches often extend due to longer rallies and fewer aces.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and their balanced stats make at least one tiebreak likely.

• Dodig has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches.
• Holmgren has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches.
• Both have tiebreak win rates near 50%, indicating close sets are common.
• Clay matches with similar serve/return profiles often feature tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace rates of both players hover around the 8.5 threshold, and a three-set match would likely push the total over.

• Holmgren averages 8.5% aces on serve, with 1763 career aces in 354 matches (~5 per match).
• Dodig averages 5.3% aces, with 810 career aces in 218 matches (~3.7 per match).
• Combined, their ace rates suggest around 8-9 aces per match on average.
• Clay reduces ace counts, but both have enough power to reach 9+ aces in a close match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and a match with 20+ games should easily surpass 5.5 double faults.

• Dodig's double-fault rate is 3.9%, Holmgren's is 4.5%.
• In a typical 22-game match, Dodig would serve ~130 points, yielding ~5 double faults; Holmgren ~140 points, yielding ~6 double faults.
• Combined, they average around 11 double faults per match based on career rates.