Raul Brancaccio vs Matej Dodig: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Dodig's defending champion status, lighter recent match load, and superior serve efficiency give him a slight edge in this clay-court quarterfinal.
- Dodig won Trieste Challenger in 2025, showing strong venue affinity on clay.
- Dodig's 2026 clay record: 9-6, Brancaccio's: 20-15, but Dodig's recent form is sharper with two straight-set wins this week.
- Brancaccio has played two three-setters this week, finishing late on Wednesday, indicating higher fatigue risk.
- Dodig's first-serve win rate (70.1%) edges Brancaccio's (65.8%), crucial on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's recent close losses and his ability to push higher-ranked opponents suggest he will keep the match within a 3.5-game margin even if he loses.
- Brancaccio's last 5 losses were by margins of 5, 5, 2, 3, and 3 games, all within 3.5.
- Dodig's last 5 wins were by margins of 2, 6, 1, 2, and 6 games, but against weaker opposition.
- Brancaccio's recent form includes a win over top seed Pellegrino, showing competitiveness.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaul Brancaccio +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match patterns for both players show a tendency for longer contests, and their solid break-point saving suggests many games will be played.
- Brancaccio's last 5 matches averaged 25.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Dodig's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Brancaccio 57.2%, Dodig 60.6%), extending games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set data shows a tendency for extended games, with both players capable of holding serve early.
- Brancaccio's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 3-6, 2-6, 6-1, 5-7 (avg 10.2 games).
- Dodig's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 6-2, 2-6, 3-6, 4-6 (avg 9.4 games).
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion, suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dodig's second sets have been particularly long recently, and Brancaccio's second-set performance is solid, making over 9.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Brancaccio's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 2-1 ret., 3-6 (avg 9.2 games).
- Dodig's last 5 second sets: 7-5, 6-4, 7-6, 7-6, 4-6 (avg 10.4 games).
- Second sets often see adjustments, leading to closer games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's high frequency of three-set matches recently and the competitive nature of both players' service games increase the likelihood of a deciding set.
- Brancaccio's last 5 matches: 4 went to three sets.
- Dodig's last 5 matches: 2 went to three sets.
- Both players have similar break-point conversion rates (~40-45%), leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dodig's slightly better recent first-set performance and Brancaccio's potential fatigue from a late Wednesday match make Dodig a marginal favorite for set 1.
- Dodig's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, Brancaccio's is 87%, both strong.
- Dodig has won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, Brancaccio in 2 of his last 5.
- Brancaccio's late finish may cause a slow start, favoring Dodig early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatej DodigEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dodig's superior serving power, combined with a projected longer match, makes over 7.5 aces a borderline call.
- Dodig's ace rate is 5.5%, Brancaccio's is 2.8%.
- In a typical 22.5-game match, Dodig alone could hit ~5 aces, Brancaccio ~2-3.
- Clay reduces ace counts, but Dodig's higher ace rate pushes the total near the line.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Raul Brancaccio #248Italy0Matej Dodig #2082

Player Profiles

Raul Brancaccio

Matej Dodig

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Matej Dodig

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Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Raul Brancaccio

Matej Dodig