Matej Dodig #20822 – 1Henri Squire #235Germany1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Dodig's surface comfort as defending champion, fresher legs after a lighter week, and superior recent form give him a moderate edge over Squire, who may be fatigued from back-to-back long matches.

• Dodig is defending champion in Trieste, with a 10-6 clay record in 2026 and 102 career clay wins.
• Dodig has won 4 of his last 5 matches, including a straight-set win over Sumit Nagal (rank 219) and a three-set comeback over Ribecai.
• Squire has played two demanding three-set matches this week, including a 2h+ comeback vs Passaro, while Dodig had one straight-set win.
• Dodig's career first-set win conversion is 85%, and he holds a 59% deciding-set win rate, showing clutch ability.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are in form and have shown resilience in recent matches, with multiple tight sets and breaks, making a total games over 21.5 likely in a best-of-three contest.

• Dodig's last three matches have averaged 22.3 games, with two going over 21.5.
• Squire's last three matches have averaged 23.3 games, all exceeding 21.5.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Dodig 41%, Squire 42%) and save rates around 60%, leading to competitive games.
• In their recent form, both have been involved in tight sets, with Squire playing two tiebreaks in his last three matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' recent first-set trends of close, extended games and strong serving, the first set is likely to exceed 9.5 games.

• Dodig's last five first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with four going over 9.5.
• Squire's last five first sets have averaged 10.4 games, with four going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong first-serve win percentages (Dodig 70%, Squire 73%), which can lead to holds and extended sets.
• Squire has played two tiebreaks in his last three first sets, indicating tight starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Squire's recent performances show he can stay within 3.5 games of Dodig, especially given his fighting spirit and Dodig's occasional lapses.

• Squire's last three matches have been decided by an average margin of 3.3 games, all within 3.5 games.
• Dodig's last three wins have been by margins of 6, 2, and 6 games, but Squire's form suggests he can keep it close.
• Squire has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against higher-ranked opponents.
• The competitive nature of this semifinal, with both players in form, points to a tight contest.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Dodig's strong first-set record and Squire's recent trend of slow starts suggest Dodig is likely to take the opening set, especially with the home-court advantage.

• Dodig has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against Nagal and Ribecai.
• Squire lost the first set in his last two matches (vs Passaro and Neumayer) and needed comebacks.
• Dodig's career first-set win conversion is 85%, indicating he often starts strong.
• On clay in 2026, Dodig has a 10-6 record, while Squire is 14-13, showing Dodig's slightly better consistency.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Squire's strong serving, combined with Dodig's decent ace output, makes over 7.5 total aces likely, especially if the match goes to three sets.

• Squire has a high ace rate of 9.6% and averages over 4 aces per match in recent outings.
• Dodig's ace rate is 5.5%, but he has served 887 career aces, indicating capability.
• In Squire's last three matches, he hit 5, 6, and 4 aces respectively, totaling 15 aces.
• The clay surface may reduce ace counts slightly, but both players' serving stats suggest a combined total over 7.5 is achievable.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given Squire's higher double-fault rate and the potential for tight moments, the combined double faults are likely to exceed 5.5.

• Squire has a double-fault rate of 5.8% and averages over 3 double faults per match in recent form.
• Dodig's double-fault rate is 3.9%, but he has 624 career double faults, showing occasional lapses.
• In Squire's last three matches, he committed 4, 3, and 2 double faults, totaling 9.
• Pressure situations in a semifinal could lead to more double faults from both players.