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Predictions graded

Gonzalo Bueno #178Peru0Max Schoenhaus #312Germany2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Wed 2 Sept 2026, 09:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGonzalo Bueno · 134 places

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

Peruvian right-hander, born 3 April 2004. Public player profiles list a career-high singles ranking of No. 160 in July 2026; no reliably sourced preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: #160 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Max Schoenhaus

Germany

A 19-year-old German right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His current No. 312 ranking is close to his published career high of No. 310; no reliable explicit preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #310
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Bueno's superior clay form and experience make him the favorite, with value on his moneyline and first set.

Schoenhaus's strong serve could keep it close, but Bueno's return game and consistency should secure the win.

Context

Bueno, 22, is a clay-court specialist with a career 55% win rate and 169 of his 174 wins on clay. He is ranked 172 and coached by Luis Horna.
Bueno's 72.7% clay win rate in his last 11 matches is clearly better than Schoenhaus's 50% in 14 matches. Bueno also wins 42.3% of return points on clay compared to Schoenhaus's 38.9%, which should give him more break chances. However, Schoenhaus has a stronger first serve, winning 69.2% of first-serve points on clay versus Bueno's 67.3%, so he can hold serve when landing his first delivery.
- Bueno's last 15 clay matches: 8-3 record (72.7% win rate).
- Schoenhaus's last 14 clay matches: 7-7 record (50% win rate).
- Bueno wins 42.3% of return points on clay; Schoenhaus wins 38.9%.
- Schoenhaus wins 69.2% of first-serve points on clay; Bueno wins 67.3%.
Schoenhaus, 20, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand and a career 51% win rate. He has 474 career aces in 102 matches.
Schoenhaus's 5.1 aces per clay match is a significant advantage over Bueno's 1.0, and his first-serve points won is slightly higher. This serve strength may allow him to hold serve more easily and put pressure on Bueno's return game. However, Bueno's superior return numbers suggest he can still create break opportunities, so the match may hinge on Schoenhaus's first-serve percentage.
- Schoenhaus averages 5.1 aces per clay match in his last 14 matches.
- Bueno averages 1.0 ace per clay match in his last 11 matches.
- Schoenhaus wins 69.2% of first-serve points on clay; Bueno wins 67.3%.
- Schoenhaus's first-serve percentage on clay is 57.5%, slightly lower than Bueno's 63.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Bueno's stronger recent clay form and superior clay experience give him the edge in this Challenger match.
- Bueno last 15 on clay: 8-3 record, 65.2% sets won, 52.4% games won
- Schoenhaus last 15 on clay: 7-7 record, 50% sets won, 50.5% games won
- Bueno career clay win% 55.4 vs Schoenhaus 51 overall, but Bueno has 169 clay wins vs 26 for Schoenhaus
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGonzalo BuenoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with similar recent stats suggests a longer total games count.
- Bueno last 15 clay average 100.7 minutes, Schoenhaus 89.4 minutes
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50% on clay
- Schoenhaus has played several three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first set likely to be close, pushing total games over 9.5.
- Bueno last 15 clay average 100.7 minutes, Schoenhaus 89.4 minutes
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50% on clay
- Schoenhaus has played several three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Bueno's superior return game and first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set.
- Bueno first set win conversion 85% career, Schoenhaus 77%
- Bueno last 15 clay first serve points won 67.3%, Schoenhaus 69.2%
- Bueno last 15 clay return points won 42.3%, Schoenhaus 38.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGonzalo BuenoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoenhaus's high ace rate should push the combined total over 6.5.
- Schoenhaus last 15 aces per match 5.2, Bueno 0.9
- Schoenhaus clay aces per match 5.1, Bueno 1.0
- Combined average aces per match around 6.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a total over 4.5 is plausible.
- Bueno last 15 double faults per match 2.9, Schoenhaus 2.3
- Combined average double faults per match around 5.2
- Both players have moderate double fault rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Gonzalo Bueno has been highly reliable when projected to win

Gonzalo Bueno has fulfilled 5 of 7 win predictions, a 71% success rate. His average estimated probability was 61.3%, with an expected 4.3 fulfilled predictions, so he has outperformed expectations. Both missed predictions came as losses, with no draws or wins in those matches.

Recent evidence for Gonzalo Bueno7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#276Juan Bautista Torres0-1#160Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsGonzalo Bueno to win·55%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#276Juan Bautista Torres0-1#160Gonzalo Bueno

Gonzalo Bueno to win

55%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Matched

21 Jul·ATP Estoril

#176Gonzalo Bueno2-1#379Tiago Pereira

BetBugsGonzalo Bueno to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#176Gonzalo Bueno2-1#379Tiago Pereira

Gonzalo Bueno to win

58%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Matched

18 Jul·ATP Estoril

#832Francisco Rocha0-2#176Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsGonzalo Bueno to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#832Francisco Rocha0-2#176Gonzalo Bueno

Gonzalo Bueno to win

72%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Matched

12 Jul·ATP Bastad

#182Gonzalo Bueno0-2#328Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugsGonzalo Bueno to win·62%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#182Gonzalo Bueno0-2#328Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Gonzalo Bueno to win

62%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Missed

16 Jun·Poznan - Poland

#180Gonzalo Bueno2-0#510Tomasz Berkieta

BetBugsGonzalo Bueno to win·65%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Poznan - Poland

#180Gonzalo Bueno2-0#510Tomasz Berkieta

Gonzalo Bueno to win

65%probability

Gonzalo Bueno won

Matched

Previous match context available

Gonzalo Bueno

10W 5L

6-2 7-5#282Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-1 6-3#161Billy Harris

6-1 6-1#75Valentin Royer

6-4 6-2#344Edward Winter

3-6 6-2 6-2—Benjamin Willwerth

6-3 6-1#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 6-3#369Norbert Gombos

5-2 ret.#262Juan Bautista Torres

7-5 7-5#270Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 6-4#666Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-2 6-4#72Jaime Faria

6-3 1-6 7-6(5)#355Tiago Pereira

6-3 5-7 6-4#129Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-4#811Francisco Rocha

6-4 7-6(5)#310Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Max Schoenhaus

7W 8L

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-7(0) 6-4 6-4#378Daniel Masur

6-4 6-3#266Mili Poljicak

6-1 6-3#260Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

1-6 6-0 ret.#118Zsombor Piros

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-1#240Max Houkes

7-5 6-1#749Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-4#206Laslo Djere

6-3 6-3#59Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-4#15Learner Tien

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 7-5#140Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-3#432Mika Petkovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GBGonzalo BuenoBueno

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Max SchoenhausSchoenhausMS

Max Schoenhaus carries the stronger recent form — Gonzalo Bueno's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In60.9%+3.4pp57.5%

1st Serve Won66.2%+2.7pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+5.1pp53.1%

Aces / Match0.9+4.35.2

Double Faults / Match2.90.6 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.7%+3.5pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted32.6%—33.0%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+1.4pp57.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—49.6%

Serve · 1–4

60.9%1st Serve In+3.4pp57.5%

66.2%1st Serve Won+2.7pp68.9%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp53.1%

0.9Aces / Match+4.35.2

2.9Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won+3.5pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

32.6%Break Pts Converted—33.0%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp57.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—49.6%