Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

St Louis City2Portland Timbers3

HT 0–2Thu 29 Oct 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Third-place St.

Louis host a Portland side with two away wins all season and four defenders listed as missing. The likely outcome is a St. Louis win, with goals at both ends a reasonable second read. None of the reviewed prices reward that view: St. Louis are at 1.73, both teams to score at 1.43 and over 2.5 goals at 1.38, and each asks more than the play justifies.

Context

Both sides scored twice in that game, which fits the wider pattern of goals at both ends in Portland's away matches and St. Louis' home matches. It is a single match, so it is a pointer rather than a pattern. It does mean the home side's edge here is not something the recent head-to-head reinforces.
- Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City, Major League Soccer, 10 September 2026.
- The match is one entry in a five-match head-to-head list spanning February 2025 to September 2026.
It shows the ceiling of St. Louis' home attack and why a home win with an early goal is a reasonable read of this fixture. Six goals from six shots on target is outlier finishing rather than a repeatable baseline, and it sits inside a 7-match home window running from 2 August to 15 October 2026. The shot volume is the more telling part of the performance.
- St. Louis City 6-2 LA Galaxy, Major League Soccer, 11 October 2026, at home.
- St. Louis scored five first-half goals in the match and recorded 11 shots with 6 on target.
- It is one of 7 tracked home matches from 2 August to 15 October 2026.
The gap between Portland at home and Portland away is the largest single split in this fixture. St. Louis have lost only twice at home in 15 matches in the same season, so the venue contrast reinforces the home side. Away results are still one slice of a 31-match season, and Portland's 3-2 win over Charlotte on 25 October shows what the attack can do when a game opens up.
- Portland Timbers away record in the 2026 MLS season: 15 played, 2 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses, 20 goals for, 31 goals against.
- Their home record in the same season: 16 played, 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 34 goals for, 27 against.
- Portland are 11th in the Western Conference on 37 points from 31 matches.
The planned pre-match ceremony follows St. Louis's first U.S. Open Cup title and takes place immediately before this home fixture. It gives the match a distinct club milestone beyond its league setting. The available evidence describes the ceremony, not a selection or tactical change.
- A St. Louis report states that the club will raise a championship banner before the Portland match on October 28.
- The ceremony marks St. Louis's first U.S. Open Cup championship.
ReportedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:56 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

St Louis City

1.73fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 57.8%

−3.8ppshort

St Louis have a strong home record and face a Portland side that has struggled badly on the road and is missing several defenders.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.43fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69.9%

−3.9ppshort

Both sides have consistently seen the opponent score, and Portland's depleted defence makes St Louis likely to score while Portland can still find goals.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 72.5%

−9.5ppshort

Both teams' season profiles point to goals, with St Louis scoring heavily at home and Portland conceding often away.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

St Louis start strongly at home and Portland's away first-half defence has been leaky, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Lean

St Louis City over 1.5

1.48fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 67.6%

−7.6ppshort

St Louis' home scoring rate and Portland's away defensive record and absences make two home goals a reasonable outcome.

Home CornerswonUncertainty band: Lean

St Louis City over 4.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

−11.4ppshort

St Louis generate a solid home corner volume and Portland's away matches have allowed similar numbers.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
St Louis have a strong home record and face a Portland side that has struggled badly on the road and is missing several defenders.
- St Louis are 9W-4D-2L at home in 2026, with 34 goals for and 19 against.
- Portland are 2W-3D-10L away in 2026, with 20 goals for and 31 against.
- Portland list defenders Bonetig, Bye, McGraw and Mosquera as missing.
- St Louis are 3rd in the West on 51 points; Portland are 11th on 37.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
St Louis have been much stronger before half-time at home, while Portland have conceded early on the road.
- St Louis home first half: 1.71 goals for and 0.43 against.
- Portland away first half: 0.57 goals for and 1.29 against.
- St Louis scored five first-half goals in the 6-2 home win over LA Galaxy.
- Portland conceded first-half goals in each of their last three away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance45%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both sides have consistently seen the opponent score, and Portland's depleted defence makes St Louis likely to score while Portland can still find goals.
- St Louis home matches have seen both teams score in 6 of 7.
- Portland away matches have seen both teams score in 6 of 7.
- St Louis overall both teams scored in 11 of 15; Portland in 12 of 15.
- Portland scored in 6 of 7 away matches, while St Louis conceded in 6 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both teams' season profiles point to goals, with St Louis scoring heavily at home and Portland conceding often away.
- St Louis home matches average 4.14 total goals: 2.71 for and 1.43 against.
- Portland away matches average 3.43 total goals: 1.14 for and 2.29 against.
- St Louis overall matches average 3.80 goals; Portland overall 3.60.
- The recent MLS meeting in Portland finished 2-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
St Louis start strongly at home and Portland's away first-half defence has been leaky, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- St Louis home first-half average: 1.71 scored and 0.43 conceded.
- Portland away first-half average: 0.57 scored and 1.29 conceded.
- St Louis scored five first-half goals in the 6-2 home win over LA Galaxy.
- Portland conceded first-half goals in each of their last three away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
St Louis' home scoring rate and Portland's away defensive record and absences make two home goals a reasonable outcome.
- St Louis average 2.71 goals per home match.
- St Louis scored in 6 of 7 home matches in the tracked home split.
- Portland concede 2.29 goals per away match.
- Portland are missing four defenders to injury.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSt Louis City over 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
St Louis generate a solid home corner volume and Portland's away matches have allowed similar numbers.
- St Louis average 5.29 corners per home match over 7 matches.
- Portland's away opponents average 5.29 corners over 7 matches.
- St Louis had 8 corners at home to Toronto and 5 at home to Vancouver.
- Portland's overall corners conceded average is 4.2, but away it rises to 5.29.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonSt Louis City over 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' shot-on-target totals are modest and the home/away split points to a combined figure around ten.
- St Louis home matches average 9.29 total shots on target: 5.57 for and 3.71 against.
- Portland away matches average 10.00 total shots on target: 3.71 for and 6.29 against.
- St Louis overall matches average 9.57 total shots on target; Portland overall 9.80.
- Both teams' tracked matches sit below the 10.5 line on average.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.73 price requires 57.8%, above our 54.0% estimate.

Prediction history

St Louis City: 4/4 recent winner projections matched

4 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring St Louis City matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for St Louis City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer