Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

Chicago Fire2Portland Timbers1

HT 2–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 8–11On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 0–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 18:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Chicago Fire are likely to win or draw based on home form, but the betting market offers no value on any major market.

Portland's new coach and short rest after the Leagues Cup add uncertainty, making the match more unpredictable than the odds suggest. Avoid betting on the match winner, double chance, Over 2.5 goals, and BTTS Yes; wait for lineup news before considering any wagers.

Context

Cifuentes added assistant Xavi Calm and goalkeeper coach Javi Ortiz for the rest of 2026, announced Aug. 10.
- The coaching change happened during the June international break, so the team has had limited time under the new staff.
- Portland's recent results have been mixed, with a 5-2 win over Puebla but a 1-3 loss to Club America in the Leagues Cup.
Portland's official site lists Club Tijuana on Aug. 13 as their final Leagues Cup Phase One match.
- The match against Chicago is on Aug. 16, leaving only three days between games.
- Portland may rotate players or manage minutes, especially if the Tijuana match is intense.
Chicago home record: 6W-0D-3L, 18 goals scored, 10 conceded.
- They have won their last three home matches across all competitions.
- However, they lost at home to New York Red Bulls and FC Cincinnati earlier in the season.
Portland away record: 2W-1D-6L, 13 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- They have lost their last two away matches in MLS (vs Inter Miami and Minnesota United).
- Their only away wins came against Seattle Sounders and San Diego.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Chicago Fire

1.47fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

Chicago's home record is strong but the market price is far too short relative to our model.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chicago Fire or Draw

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 85%

−13.0ppshort

The double chance is heavily juiced and offers no value despite the high confidence.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages and leaky defenses, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game, eliminating value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score and concede, but the odds already price in a high probability of both teams scoring, eliminating value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chicago's strong home form and Portland's poor away record give the Fire a clear edge, supported by the structural home/away signal.
- Chicago Fire home record: 6W-0D-3L, 18 goals scored, 10 conceded in 9 home matches.
- Portland Timbers away record: 2W-1D-6L, 13 goals scored, 18 conceded in 9 away matches.
- Chicago Fire overall form: WLLWW in last 5, 29 points from 17 matches.
- Portland Timbers overall form: WWDWL in last 5, 24 points from 18 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonChicago FireEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's home dominance and Portland's away struggles make a Fire win or draw highly likely, driven by the structural home/away edge.
- Chicago Fire home record: 6W-0D-3L, 18 goals scored, 10 conceded in 9 home matches.
- Portland Timbers away record: 2W-1D-6L, 13 goals scored, 18 conceded in 9 away matches.
- Chicago Fire overall form: WLLWW in last 5, 29 points from 17 matches.
- Portland Timbers overall form: WWDWL in last 5, 24 points from 18 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChicago Fire or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring averages are close, suggesting a possible stalemate at the break, but confidence is low due to variance.
- Chicago Fire have drawn at halftime in 40% of matches.
- Portland Timbers have drawn at halftime in 20% of matches.
- Chicago Fire average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Portland Timbers average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Chicago win is plausible given Chicago's second-half strength, but the specific sequence is low probability.
- Chicago Fire have drawn at halftime in 40% of matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 53% of matches overall.
- Portland Timbers have drawn at halftime in 20% of matches.
- Portland Timbers have lost 44% of matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Chicago FireEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and leaky defenses, making over 2.5 goals likely, supported by the goals stats signal.
- Chicago Fire average 2.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match overall.
- Portland Timbers average 2.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match overall.
- Chicago Fire home matches average 2.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Portland Timbers away matches average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, making BTTS a strong possibility, based on the goals stats signal.
- Chicago Fire have scored in 14 of 17 matches overall.
- Portland Timbers have scored in 15 of 18 matches overall.
- Chicago Fire have conceded in 12 of 17 matches overall.
- Portland Timbers have conceded in 15 of 18 matches overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, but the low averages make over 1.5 a speculative call, supported by the half-time stats signal.
- Chicago Fire average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Portland Timbers average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Portland Timbers have trailed at halftime in 47% of matches.
- Chicago Fire have led at halftime in 33% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the second half, and the total goals expectation supports over 1.5 in the second half, based on the half-time stats signal.
- Chicago Fire average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Portland Timbers average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Chicago Fire have scored in the second half in 12 of 17 matches.
- Portland Timbers have scored in the second half in 13 of 18 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, so total corners could exceed 9.5, but the margin is thin and confidence is low.
- Chicago Fire average 5.2 corners per match overall.
- Portland Timbers average 5.2 corners per match overall.
- Chicago Fire average 5.2 corners at home.
- Portland Timbers average 5.2 corners away.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target average around 10.8, but variance is high, so over 8.5 is a coin flip.
- Chicago Fire average 5.8 shots on target per match overall.
- Portland Timbers average 5.0 shots on target per match overall.
- Chicago Fire average 5.8 shots on target at home.
- Portland Timbers average 5.0 shots on target away.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 68% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Chicago Fire have been highly reliable when projected over 2.5 goals

Chicago Fire have fulfilled 3 of 4 recent over 2.5 goals projections. Their average estimated probability was 65.5%, with an expected 2.6 fulfilled predictions, so they slightly outperformed expectation. The current prediction of 60% sits within the historical range of 55% to 75%.

Recent evidence for Chicago Fire4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer