Rangers3Celtic0

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 50%–50%On targetOn target 8–1CornersCorners 5–3Yellow CardsYellow Cards 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 00:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Celtic are slight favourites with value on the away win (2.30) and double chance (1.48), while Rangers' missing striker Shankland weakens their attack.

The best goals angle is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15; avoid Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes due to negative value.

Context

Celtic are the away side in this League Cup match against Rangers. Their recent competitive record shows consistent wins across league and cup competitions.
Celtic's last seven competitive matches have all been wins, including a 3-0 home victory over Aberdeen on 2026-09-02 and a 5-1 away win at Kilmarnock on 2026-08-09. This run shows they are scoring freely and defending well, which could put Rangers under pressure from the start. However, the derby is often a different test, and Rangers' own recent form includes a 1-0 win over Motherwell on 2026-09-05, so the gap may be smaller than the run suggests.
- Celtic won 3-0 at home to Aberdeen on 2026-09-02.
- Celtic won 5-1 away at Kilmarnock on 2026-08-09.
- Celtic won 2-1 away at ST Mirren on 2026-09-05.
Rangers captain and striker L. Shankland has started 3 of the last 5 available lineups, with R. Naderi covering that role in the other 2.
His confirmed grade 2c hamstring tear removes Rangers' central attacking focal point for months. Naderi is the direct replacement from recent selections, but the attack loses its established reference point. Celtic's match-winner outlook shifts toward the away side partly because of this absence.
- Derek McInnes said L. Shankland suffered a grade 2c hamstring tear.
- McInnes said the best-case absence is three months and the likely upper estimate is four months.
- L. Shankland started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- R. Naderi started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Shankland did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:27 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport Scotland via Yahoo Sportssports.yahoo.com · 8 Sep 2026
Rangers and Celtic have met five times in the last year across league and cup competitions. The most recent meeting was a Premiership match on 2026-05-10.
In the last four meetings, Celtic won three times and one match was a draw. The most recent was a 3-1 Celtic home win on 2026-05-10, where Celtic scored three goals despite having less possession. Rangers' only win in this period came on 2026-01-03, a 3-1 away victory. This pattern shows Celtic have been more effective in recent derbies, but Rangers' win earlier in the year shows they can compete.
- Celtic beat Rangers 3-1 at home on 2026-05-10.
- Rangers beat Celtic 3-1 away on 2026-01-03.
- The other two meetings in 2026 ended in draws: 0-0 on 2026-03-08 and 2-2 on 2026-03-01.
Celtic's season statistics across all competitions show strong attacking output. They have played 14 matches in the current season.
Celtic average 2.5 goals per game and 7.2 shots on target, which is significantly higher than Rangers' 1.6 goals and 5.4 shots on target. This suggests Celtic create more clear chances and finish them more often. However, Rangers' defense has conceded only 1.2 goals per game on average, so they may be able to limit Celtic's opportunities.
- Celtic average 2.5 goals scored per match.
- Celtic average 7.2 shots on target per match.
- Rangers average 1.6 goals scored and 5.4 shots on target per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's superior recent form and H2H record, combined with Rangers' key attacking absence, make them slight favourites.
- Celtic average 2.5 goals per game in last 15, Rangers 1.6
- Celtic won 3 of last 5 H2H, Rangers 1
- Celtic away form: 4 wins in last 5 away matches
- Rangers missing key striker Shankland (confirmed)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's strong H2H record and better form make them unlikely to lose in regulation.
- Celtic unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H
- Rangers have only 1 win in last 5 H2H
- Celtic average 2.5 goals per game vs Rangers 1.6
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or CelticEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's stronger first-half scoring and half-time lead percentage give them an edge.
- Celtic lead at half-time in 47% of matches
- Rangers lead at half-time in 33% of matches
- Celtic average 1.3 first-half goals vs Rangers 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's superior squad depth and second-half scoring should see them edge the second period.
- Celtic average 1.2 second-half goals vs Rangers 0.7
- Celtic have better overall form and fitness
- Rangers may tire without key players
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic could lead at half-time and hold on, but this is a lower-probability exact outcome.
- Celtic lead at half-time in 47% of matches
- Celtic win 60% of matches overall
- Rangers have only 33% half-time lead rate
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCeltic/CelticEstimated chance30%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H trend and Celtic's attacking output support over 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 4, 0, 4, 4, 4 goals
- Celtic average 2.5 goals per game, Rangers 1.6
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have found the net in recent meetings, and Rangers' home attack should contribute.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H
- Rangers scored in 4 of last 5 H2H
- Celtic conceded in 3 of last 5 H2H
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, but first-half totals can be volatile.
- Celtic average 1.3 first-half goals per game
- Rangers average 0.9 first-half goals per game
- Combined first-half average 2.2 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves often open up in derbies, and both teams have decent second-half scoring rates.
- Celtic average 1.2 second-half goals per game
- Rangers average 0.7 second-half goals per game
- Combined second-half average 1.9 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, suggesting a high total.
- Rangers average 6.4 corners per game, Celtic 7.1
- Combined average 13.5 corners per game
- H2H corner data unavailable
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce high shots on target numbers, supporting over 9.5.
- Rangers average 5.4 shots on target per game
- Celtic average 7.2 shots on target per game
- Combined average 12.6 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derby intensity could push card count above the line.
- Rangers average 1.7 yellow cards per game, Celtic 2.0
- Combined average 3.7 yellow cards per game
- Derby matches often see more cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%