Celtic0Rangers1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–1442%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 5–15On targetOn target 1–8CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 22:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Celtic are slight value at 1.95 to win (55% model vs 51% implied) and the double chance Celtic or Draw at 1.30 offers a small edge.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score, as the market overprices them relative to the model, especially with Rangers missing captain Lawrence Shankland.

Context

Celtic and Rangers are the top two teams in the Scottish Premiership, with Celtic leading the table and Rangers in second place.
Rangers won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 13 September 2026 in the League Cup. That result shows Rangers can beat Celtic convincingly, but it was a cup match and this league game may be different. Celtic have won all six of their league matches this season, so they are still strong in the Premiership.
- Rangers beat Celtic 3-0 on 13 September 2026 in the League Cup.
- Celtic have won all six Premiership matches this season.
Rangers beat Celtic 3-0 in the Premier Sports Cup on 13 September, with Dan Neil scoring twice and Kevin Kelsy once. The Guardian reported Rangers' intensity disrupted Celtic from the outset, and Sky Sports noted Celtic struggled against Rangers' aggressive man-for-man press.
This immediate rematch tests whether Celtic can build through the same pressure and prevent Rangers from turning recoveries into fast attacks. The linked analysis still favours Celtic at home, but the cup result shows Rangers have a repeatable pressing mechanism that can unsettle them.
- The SPFL recorded Rangers’ 3-0 quarter-final win over Celtic at Ibrox on 13 September.
- Dan Neil scored twice and Kevin Kelsy scored Rangers’ other goal.
- The Guardian reported that Rangers’ intensity disrupted Celtic from the outset and that a failed Celtic counter led to the opening goal.
- Sky Sports reported that Celtic struggled against Rangers’ aggressive man-for-man press.
ReportedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:58 · Europe/BucharestSPFL: Rangers knock out Celticclublogin.spfl.co.uk · 13 Sep 2026The Guardian match reportwww.theguardian.com · 13 Sep 2026Sky Sports match reportwww.skysports.com · 13 Sep 2026
Celtic are top of the Premiership with 18 points from six matches.
Celtic have won every league game this season, including a 3-0 home win over Aberdeen on 2 September and a 5-1 away win at Kilmarnock on 9 August. This strong form gives them confidence, but Rangers also have a good record with four wins in six league games. The derby is a different test for both teams.
- Celtic have won all six Premiership matches this season.
- Celtic beat Aberdeen 3-0 at home on 2 September 2026.
- Celtic beat Kilmarnock 5-1 away on 9 August 2026.
Rangers attacker L. Shankland is ruled out with a hamstring injury expected to keep him out for three to four months. He started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, and K. Kelsy started in the same position in 2 of those fixtures when Shankland did not start.
Rangers must choose a different attacking selection and match captain for this derby. Kelsy is the most recent replacement in that role, but the squad will need to cover Shankland's absence without a like-for-like option.
- McInnes confirmed Shankland’s hamstring injury was expected to keep him out for around three to four months.
- The Rangers manager said the squad would need to deal with the absence.
- L. Shankland started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- K. Kelsy started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Shankland did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:58 · Europe/BucharestRangers: Derek McInnes squad updatewww.rangers.co.uk · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Celtic or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Celtic are unlikely to be trailing at half-time given their strong first-half record, making Celtic or draw a solid pick.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's perfect league record and strong home form, combined with Rangers' recent away inconsistency, make them favourites despite the cup loss.
- Celtic have won all 6 Premiership matches this season, scoring 14 and conceding 3.
- Celtic average 2.1 goals per game and 61.7% possession over their last 15 matches.
- Rangers lost their most recent away league match to Hibernian 1-2 and have only 2 wins in 3 away games.
- Celtic won the last league meeting at home 3-1 in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's strong home form and Rangers' mixed away results make a Celtic win or draw highly likely.
- Celtic have not lost at home in the league this season (3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses).
- Rangers have drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away league matches.
- Celtic's home record in the last 15 matches shows only 1 loss (to Rangers in the League Cup).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCeltic or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's stronger first-half scoring and home advantage give them a slight edge, but the derby is unpredictable.
- Celtic lead at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Rangers trail at half-time in 20% of matches.
- Celtic average 1.2 first-half goals vs Rangers' 0.8.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's home advantage and Rangers' away fatigue could tilt the second half, but evidence is limited.
- Celtic have a positive second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Rangers have conceded late goals in away matches.
- Celtic's home crowd support may boost second-half performance.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic often control matches from the start, but Rangers' resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Celtic have led at half-time and won in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Rangers have not won away from home after trailing at half-time this season.
- Celtic's home record is perfect in the league.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCeltic/CelticEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's ability to dominate both halves is possible but not frequent enough to warrant higher confidence.
- Celtic have won both halves in 2 of their last 6 league matches.
- Rangers have lost both halves in 1 of their last 6 league matches.
- Celtic's first-half dominance is strong but not consistent enough for high confidence.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostCelticEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic are unlikely to be trailing at half-time given their strong first-half record, making Celtic or draw a solid pick.
- Celtic lead at half-time in 47% of matches and draw in 33%.
- Rangers trail at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Celtic's first-half goal difference is +0.9 per game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostCeltic or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have attacking quality and recent H2H meetings have often been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Celtic's last 5 matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Rangers' last 5 matches have averaged 2.4 total goals.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have produced 3, 4, 0, 4, and 4 goals respectively.
- Celtic average 2.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and have found the net against each other in recent meetings.
- Celtic have scored in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Rangers have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Celtic concede an average of 1.1 goals per game, Rangers 0.9.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and recent derbies have seen early goals.
- Celtic average 1.2 first-half goals per game.
- Rangers average 0.8 first-half goals per game.
- Celtic have led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, at least one first-half goal was scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average suggests a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Celtic average 0.9 second-half goals (total 2.1 minus 1.2 first-half).
- Rangers average 0.9 second-half goals (total 1.7 minus 0.8 first-half).
- Combined second-half average is 1.8 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid first-half defences, and recent derbies have not seen both score before the break.
- Celtic concede only 0.3 first-half goals per game.
- Rangers concede 0.7 first-half goals per game.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in the first half only once.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats8 of 12 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, but the derby intensity may reduce open play and corner opportunities.
- Celtic average 8.1 corners per game, Rangers 6.7.
- Combined average is 14.8 corners per game.
- In the last H2H meeting, total corners were 8 (3 for Celtic, 5 for Rangers).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's home corner production is strong, and Rangers' away defence may concede several corners.
- Celtic average 8.1 corners per game overall.
- At home, Celtic have averaged 9.3 corners in their last 3 home league matches.
- Rangers concede an average of 5.3 corners per away game.
BetBugs · Home CornerswonCeltic over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rangers are capable of earning corners even away, but Celtic's dominance may limit their attacking time.
- Rangers average 6.7 corners per game overall.
- Away from home, Rangers have averaged 5.7 corners in their last 3 away matches.
- Celtic concede an average of 4.2 corners per home game.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonRangers over 3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are shot-heavy, but the derby's tactical nature may reduce total shots below the combined average.
- Celtic average 20.6 shots per game, Rangers 19.3.
- Combined average is 39.9 shots per game.
- In the last H2H meeting, total shots were not fully recorded but both teams had high shot counts.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 25.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The last meeting was an outlier with low Celtic shots on target, but overall averages suggest a moderate chance of over 9.5.
- Celtic average 7.5 shots on target per game, Rangers 6.1.
- Combined average is 13.6 shots on target.
- In the last H2H meeting, Celtic had 1 shot on target and Rangers 8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's high shot volume at home and Rangers' defensive vulnerabilities support over 15.5 shots for Celtic.
- Celtic average 20.6 shots per game overall.
- At home, Celtic have averaged 22.3 shots in their last 3 home league matches.
- Rangers allow an average of 12.3 shots per away game.
BetBugs · Home Shots TotallostCeltic over 15.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rangers are capable of double-digit shots, but Celtic's home dominance may limit their opportunities.
- Rangers average 19.3 shots per game overall.
- Away from home, Rangers have averaged 16.7 shots in their last 3 away matches.
- Celtic allow an average of 9.8 shots per home game.
BetBugs · Away Shots TotalwonRangers over 10.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's accuracy at home and Rangers' away defensive record make over 5.5 shots on target likely.
- Celtic average 7.5 shots on target per game.
- At home, Celtic have averaged 8.3 shots on target in their last 3 home league matches.
- Rangers concede an average of 4.7 shots on target per away game.
BetBugs · Home Shots on Target TotallostCeltic over 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rangers can test the Celtic keeper, but Celtic's home defence is solid, making this a coin flip.
- Rangers average 6.1 shots on target per game.
- Away from home, Rangers have averaged 5.3 shots on target in their last 3 away matches.
- Celtic concede an average of 3.8 shots on target per home game.
BetBugs · Away Shots on Target TotalwonRangers over 3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The Old Firm derby's physical nature typically leads to more cards, pushing the total over 3.5.
- Celtic average 1.6 yellow cards per game, Rangers 1.8.
- Combined average is 3.4 yellow cards per game.
- Derby matches often see increased card counts due to intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's card count may rise in a heated derby, but their home discipline has been decent.
- Celtic average 1.6 yellow cards per game.
- At home, Celtic have averaged 1.3 yellow cards in their last 3 home league matches.
- Rangers draw an average of 2.0 yellow cards from opponents per away game.
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/UnderwonCeltic over 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rangers' away matches tend to produce more cards for them, and the derby intensity adds to the likelihood.
- Rangers average 1.8 yellow cards per game.
- Away from home, Rangers have averaged 2.3 yellow cards in their last 3 away matches.
- Celtic draw an average of 1.7 yellow cards from opponents per home game.
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderwonRangers over 1.5Estimated chance55%